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Special Episode: Engineering the Apocalypse by Rob Reid and Sam Harris

Sam HarrisSam Harris
Science & Technology9 min read222 min video
Apr 24, 2021|154,063 views|3,006|870
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TL;DR

We're on a collision course with engineered pandemics. Proliferation of synthetic biology and human fallibility demands a global immune system.

Key Insights

1

Engineered pathogens pose an existential threat far deadlier than COVID-19, with the potential to collapse civilization's infrastructure.

2

Advances in synthetic biology are democratizing the ability to create deadly viruses, shifting doomsday power from states to individuals and rogue groups.

3

Gain-of-function research, while well-intentioned, inherently risks creating catastrophic pathogens that might never evolve naturally, and laboratories are not impervious to leaks.

4

Current biosecurity measures are insufficient; voluntary industry compliance and outdated government guidance leave dangerous gaps.

5

A global immune system, comprising five components (hardening infrastructure, early detection, societal hardening, conquering viruses, and battle infrastructure), is crucial.

6

Investing in this immune system is economically trivial compared to the trillions pandemics cost and offers dual benefits against natural diseases.

THE LOOMING THREAT OF ENGINEERED PANDEMICS

Rob Reid warns of an impending future where deliberately engineered pandemics, far more lethal and contagious than COVID-19, could devastate civilization. He posits a scenario of a virus with a 50% fatality rate, leading to societal collapse due to disintegrating supply chains, power outages, and overwhelmed essential services. Reid, an optimist at heart, believes this catastrophic future is preventable if humanity takes urgent, serious steps. He highlights that COVID-19, while horrific, was a 'lucky' and relatively benign dress rehearsal compared to what's biologically possible, citing viruses like SARS (10% fatality) and MERS (33% fatality), and especially H5N1 flu (60% fatality), which, if made contagious, represents a truly apocalyptic threat.

THE DANGER OF GAIN-OF-FUNCTION RESEARCH

The deliberate creation of a contagious, artificially modified H5N1 flu by scientists some years ago serves as a chilling precedent. This research, intended to understand viral potential, resulted in a pathogen described as 'one of the most dangerous viruses you can make,' capable of airborne transmission between ferrets. Such work, often termed 'gain-of-function' research, is conducted by well-meaning virologists to anticipate natural mutations. However, Reid argues it's a dangerous gamble, bringing into existence ghastly pathogens that nature might never create and risking catastrophic leaks from even highly secure labs, as evidenced by past incidents like smallpox, anthrax, and foot-and-mouth disease escapes.

PRIVATIZING DOOMSDAY: THE DEMOCRATIZATION OF TECHNOLOGY

Reid introduces the concept of 'privatizing the apocalypse,' where the power to unleash global catastrophe increasingly moves from a few state actors to autonomous researchers and eventually, to a much wider array of individuals. This shift is driven by the exponential advancement and democratization of synthetic biology (synbio) technologies. Just as computing power spread from elite institutions to billions, synbio tools are becoming cheaper, more powerful, and accessible. In a few decades, capabilities once reserved for top scientists may be available to high school students, raising alarming questions about who can wield such destructive power without oversight or permission.

THE PROLIFERATION OF DOOMSDAY POWERS

The core concern is that an ever-growing number of people will gain the ability to create apocalyptic pathogens. While today's synbio pioneers are typically brilliant and well-intentioned, the increasing simplicity of tools means less skilled and potentially malevolent individuals could eventually utilize them. Reid draws parallels to mass murderers who leverage advanced weaponry designed by others, demonstrating that technology acts as a force multiplier for destructive intent. The internet, containing blueprints for eradicated diseases like smallpox and the 1918 flu, adds another layer of risk, as stolen genetic data could be synthesized by future accessible technologies, allowing disturbed individuals or groups to engineer global pandemics.

THE INADEQUATE RESPONSE TO COVID-19

COVID-19 exposed humanity's profound unpreparedness and systemic failures in responding to a pandemic. Despite extraordinary scientific achievements, like rapid vaccine development, the public health response in many countries, particularly the U.S., was abysmal. Issues included testing debacles, PPE shortages, politicization of masks, and a lack of coordinated national strategy. Reid emphasizes that this 'disastrous dress rehearsal' for a comparatively benign pathogen underscores the urgent need for radical improvements, as future, likely deadlier, pandemics demand a meticulously planned, agile, and robust global response, moving beyond the current reactive and fragmented approach.

MOTIVATIONS FOR DESTRUCTION: INDIVIDUALS AND GROUPS

The question of 'who would unleash a doomsday virus?' highlights a terrifying spectrum of motivations. Lone-wolf individuals, particularly suicidal mass murderers, are a primary concern, as their intent is often boundless, and technology serves as a force multiplier for their destructive desires. Cases like the Las Vegas shooter demonstrate that the limits of destruction are often technological, not ambition. While groups capable of such nihilism (like Aum Shinrikyo) are rarer, their collective capabilities are far more formidable. Ideological extremists (environmentalists, anti-natalists) or even delusional individuals could find rationale for apocalyptic actions as synbio tools become more accessible, presenting an unprecedented national security challenge.

THE IMPOSSIBILITY OF A TECHNOLOGY BAN

A global ban on synthetic biology is deemed unfeasible and unwise. Unlike nuclear programs, synbio can be practiced almost invisibly, making enforcement impossible and risking giving a monopoly to rogue states. Furthermore, synbio holds immense promise for medicine (saving millions of lives), the environment (sustainable agriculture, biodegradable plastics), and even science-fiction-like wonders (clean meat). Banning it would stunt these benefits and remove humanity's greatest allies – trained synbio experts – from the fight against malevolent uses of the technology. The solution lies not in prohibition, but in robust safeguards and responsible innovation.

TOWARDS A GLOBAL IMMUNE SYSTEM: FIVE COMPONENTS

Reid proposes building a global immune system, mirroring the agility and multi-layered defense of the human body, to identify and destroy new diseases. This system would have five key components: 1) Hardening the synbio infrastructure to prevent bad actors; 2) Robust outbreak surveillance for early detection; 3) Hardening society against pathogen spread; 4) Developing broad-spectrum antiviral countermeasures; and 5) Establishing battle infrastructure for rapid response. The cost of such a system, estimated in the low billions annually, is negligible compared to the trillions a single pandemic like COVID-19 costs, making it a highly cost-effective and indispensable investment with dual benefits against both natural and artificial threats.

COMPONENT 1: HARDENING SYNTHETIC BIOLOGY INFRASTRUCTURE

This component focuses on making it extremely difficult for malicious actors to create deadly pathogens using synthetic DNA. Current voluntary industry guidelines, like those set by the International Gene Synthesis Consortium (IGSC), screen for dangerous DNA sequences. However, this system is insufficient, suffering from outdated government guidance, voluntary compliance (leaving 20% of the industry unregulated), and a lack of independent oversight. Reid advocates for mandatory, internationally coordinated regulations that forbid distribution of synthetic DNA to anonymous or known bad actors, restrict dangerous DNA to highly trusted customers, and ban the synthesis/distribution of pandemic-grade DNA entirely. Regulators must be brilliant, fast-moving, and operate on a global scale.

BENCHTOP DNA PRINTERS: A FUTURE CHALLENGE

The rise of benchtop DNA printers, which allow users to generate DNA in their own labs, presents a significant future challenge. Currently expensive and limited, these devices are poised to become cheaper and more powerful, eventually capable of printing entire viral genomes. This shift from centralized, regulated synthesis to distributed, user-operated production mirrors the evolution of computing and printing. To mitigate risk, all such printers must be legally required to report dangerous sequences for review. Companies like Codex DNA are already implementing such safeguards with products like the BioXp, but robust, international regulations are needed to ensure compliance from future low-cost knock-offs and prevent the technology from falling into the wrong hands.

COMPONENT 2: EARLY DETECTION AND GLOBAL SURVEILLANCE

Early detection is paramount, as exponential growth in initial outbreak days dictates its trajectory. China's initial COVID-19 delays underline the catastrophic cost of squandered lead time. Advanced data science, leveraging platforms like Google search trends to identify symptom spikes, offers a low-cost, high-impact tool for early warning. Moreover, programs like 'Sentinel' in West Africa, using ultra-sensitive genomic technologies and real-time data integration, serve as models for global, multi-tiered surveillance. Technologies like bioaerosol science (detecting pathogens directly from the air) and expanded microorganism surveys (MetaSUB) could further enhance detection, forming a comprehensive 'NORAD-like' disease tracking center with continuous data streams and rapid diagnostic capabilities.

COMPONENT 3: HARDENING SOCIETY AGAINST PANDEMICS

Societal hardening involves implementing measures to reduce the spread and impact of a pandemic. One intriguing possibility is widespread use of far-UVC light, which kills airborne microorganisms without harming human tissue. David Brenner's research suggests it could significantly reduce pathogen levels in indoor spaces. Another avenue is the BCG vaccine, historically used for tuberculosis, which shows promising (though unproven against COVID-19 specifically) broad-spectrum protection against respiratory infections. Conducting rigorous clinical trials for BCG is a small investment with potentially massive returns in global health. Finally, a robust social safety net and mental health vigilance are crucial, as societal despair can fuel the motivations of mass murderers, emphasizing the importance of human connection and support.

COMPONENT 4: CONQUERING VIRUSES THROUGH UNIVERSAL COUNTERMEASURES

This component focuses on proactively developing broad-spectrum antiviral vaccines and therapeutics. Current antiviral drugs are generally disease-specific, lacking the broad effectiveness of many antibiotics. Research is needed to test existing antivirals against all dangerous viral families and proactively develop new ones, for example, a single drug effective against all coronaviruses. Similarly, a 'universal flu vaccine' effective against all influenza strains for multiple years is a critical goal, costing a mere fraction of what the flu costs annually. These 'moonshot' programs, while requiring significant investment (billions, not trillions), would offer monumental protection against both natural and artificial viral threats, revolutionizing pandemic preparedness.

COMPONENT 5: BATTLE INFRASTRUCTURE AND PREPAREDNESS

Effective battle infrastructure is essential when an outbreak occurs. Key elements include a unified national command with presidential authority to mobilize resources (avoiding competitive state responses seen during COVID-19), and mechanisms for voluntary, supported quarantines in dedicated facilities rather than at home. Massive stockpiles of PPE and ventilators, coupled with localized supply chains and legally mandated home stockpiles, are also vital to prevent shortages and price gouging. Challenge trials, where healthy volunteers are deliberately infected, could dramatically accelerate vaccine development and approval, saving countless lives, though they present ethical complexities that require careful consideration and public acceptance for the greater good.

THE TELEPORTING VACCINE AND A PATH TO OPTIMISM

The most optimistic vision for the future involves 'teleporting vaccines.' Leveraging DNA printer technology, like the BioXp, vaccine genetic code could be instantly transmitted and printed into functional doses at local pharmacies or even homes, bypassing vulnerable supply chains and accelerating global distribution. This capability, though somewhat science fiction now, is plausible within 5-10 years given the exponential growth of synbio. Reid concludes with a hopeful future scenario: robust laws, comprehensive surveillance, broad-spectrum vaccines, and rapidly available treatments would converge to quash deliberate or natural outbreaks at their earliest stages, fundamentally altering humanity's relationship with disease. Optimism is justified by available science and technology, but requires sustained political will and investment to avoid complacency.

Historical Disease Fatality Rates

Data extracted from this episode

DiseaseCase Fatality Rate
COVID-190.5% - 1%
SARS~10%
MERS>33%
H5N1 Flu~60%
EbolaDeadlier than H5N1 (no specific rate given relative to H5N1)

Economic Costs of Pandemics

Data extracted from this episode

EventCost to US (Estimated)Cost Worldwide (Estimated)
COVID-19$7.9 - $16 trillionTens of trillions of dollars
Annual Flu$361 billionOver $1 trillion
Nuclear Arsenal (US annual upkeep)$35 billion
Nuclear Arsenal (World annual upkeep)$70 billion

Common Questions

Rob Reid is a tech entrepreneur, science fiction and science writer, and podcaster. His concern about engineered pandemics stems from his earlier research into secular opposition groups in Egypt, leading him to focus on terrorism. Later, while writing a science fiction novel, he delved into synthetic biology and the potential for synbioterror attacks, which he then explored in his podcast and a TED Talk.

Topics

Mentioned in this video

People
Naval Ravikant

A thinker and entrepreneur with whom Rob Reid had a conversation on his podcast about artificial pandemics, which led to Reid's TED Talk.

Chris Mason

A geneticist and professor at Weill Cornell Medicine who runs the global microorganism survey 'MetaSub', collecting data on surfaces, wastewater, and air samples in over 100 cities.

Las Vegas shooter

Murdered 58 concert-goers, serving as an example of a suicidal mass murderer with no proven boundaries, who, given the capability, might have unleashed something far worse than COVID-19.

Bill Lampos

From University College London's computer science department, whose research showed that search traffic could predict national outbreaks, like COVID-19, 16 days before case counts spiked.

Rob Reid

A long-time tech entrepreneur, science fiction writer, science writer, and science podcaster, concerned about artificially modified viruses and co-host of this discussion.

Ray Kurzweil

Described as the 'godfather of exponential thinking', who stridently argued against posting the 1918 flu genome to the internet, foreseeing its catastrophic weaponization.

Shenji Lai

Lead author of a fascinating paper in Nature, associated with the University of Southampton, analyzing China's non-pharmaceutical interventions against COVID-19.

Charlie Ironside

A Scottish physicist based in Australia who explained why far UVC light doesn't penetrate human skin and issued a call to the industry to develop far UVC LED products.

Harvey Fineberg

Former dean of the Harvard School of Public Health and former president of the National Academy of Medicine, who has long called for a universal flu vaccine and similar programs for other viral families.

Peter Daszak

A virologist quoted in The New York Times, summarizing the situation with pandemics funding: 'the problem isn't that prevention was impossible, it was very possible but we didn't do it'.

David Evans

A virologist at the University of Alberta who created the harmless horsepox virus from scratch in 2016 to demonstrate the possibility of resurrecting smallpox, signaling a potential capability of hundreds of scientists.

Ron Fouchier

The head of the Dutch team that produced a contagious form of H5N1 flu capable of spreading through the air between ferrets, admitting it was 'probably one of the most dangerous viruses you can make'.

Sarah Carter

Science policy expert who estimated that IGSC members spend an average of almost $15 per synthetic DNA order on biosecurity compliance, but noted that biosecurity often isn't a top industry priority.

Amesh Adalja

Senior scholar at Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security who emphasizes the need for broad-spectrum antiviral drugs and a multi-year program to test existing antivirals against dangerous viral families.

Bill Gates

Warned against complacency in a TED Talk, not about COVID-19 but Ebola, highlighting humanity's failure to be ready for the next epidemic despite warnings.

Omar Mateen

The shooter in the Orlando nightclub attack, cited as an example of a 'lone wolf' operator whose actions were nearly undetectable as they were perfectly legal.

Dan Gibson

Creator of the BioXp DNA printer and co-founder of Codex DNA, who conceptualized it with vaccine production in mind, particularly RNA vaccines.

Farag Foda

Egypt's most prominent secularist at the time Rob Reid was in Cairo, who was tragically assassinated, sparking a wave of terrorism.

Seth Stephens-Davidowitz

A data scientist who wrote an article for The New York Times showing that Google searches for 'I can't smell' tracked COVID-19's prevalence, and who boldly predicted eye pain as a COVID symptom.

Pardis Sabeti

One of the co-leaders of the Sentinel program, with appointments at Harvard and the Broad Institute, focused on real-time detection of viral threats.

Li Wenliang

A heroic doctor who, in late December, warned fellow doctors in Wuhan of a SARS-like outbreak, demonstrating the importance of individual warnings in early detection.

Lawrence Summers

Former Harvard president, who pegged the domestic costs of COVID-19 at $16 trillion, highlighting the immense economic impact of pandemics.

University College London

Bill Lampos is part of its computer science department, where research on using search traffic to predict disease outbreaks is conducted.

Mark Hernandez

A researcher at the University of Colorado pioneering bioaerosol science, excited about condensation particle capture (CPC) and spectrophotometric comb technologies for detecting airborne pathogens.

Megan Murray

A brilliant Harvard epidemiologist focused on tuberculosis, knowledgeable about the BCG vaccine and its potential, who Rob Reid interviewed for his podcast.

David Brenner

A radiation physicist at Columbia University who has done groundbreaking research on far UVC light, showing its potential to kill airborne pathogens without harming human tissue.

Companies
Twist Bioscience

A publicly traded synthetic biology company and IGSC member, which treats consortium standards as a baseline and has full-time PhD staff reviewing DNA orders beyond the IGSC database.

Spotify

A popular music streaming service, used as a comparison to explain Rhapsody's pioneering role.

Codex DNA

Company co-founded by Dan Gibson, manufacturer of the BioXp, which is an IGSC member and reviews all DNA print runs from its machines.

Johnson & Johnson

A pharmaceutical company mentioned in the context of COVID-19 vaccine manufacturers.

Palantir

A tech corporation with engineering talent, cited as an example of the kind of private sector competence that should be leveraged for national detection grids, in contrast to government IT failures.

Pfizer

A pharmaceutical company whose RNA vaccine technology is behind the 'wildly exciting vaccines', also mentioned in the context of potential booster shots for new variants.

Deloitte

Awarded a $44 million no-bid contract by the federal government to develop vaccine rollout software for states, which was 'catastrophically inept', illustrating government IT contracting failures.

Equifax

A Fortune 500 company that suffered a data breach, mentioned as an example of how data networks get hacked, potentially allowing dangerous genetic files to be stolen and spread.

Google

Its search data was used by Seth Stephens-Davidowitz to track and predict COVID-19 symptoms, demonstrating its potential as an early warning tool for outbreaks.

Thermo Fisher Scientific

An IGSC member, whose employee chairs the consortium, raising questions about the IGSC's independence.

National Academy of Medicine

Harvey Fineberg, a proponent of universal vaccines, was a former president here.

Organizations
Public Health England

Using Bill Lampos's COVID-19 models and search-powered flu detector as early warning tools for outbreaks.

Ohm Shinrikyo cult

A Japanese doomsday cult that gathered over a thousand members, including biologists, and carried out a sarin gas attack in the Tokyo subway, aiming for the end of the world but lacking the tools for total annihilation at the time.

University of Alberta

Where virologist David Evans, who synthesized horsepox, is based.

New England Journal of Medicine

An editorial in October stated that the 'magnitude of this failure is astonishing' in reference to the US response to the COVID-19 pandemic.

Harvard University

Where Pardis Sabeti holds an appointment, and a partner in the Broad Institute.

Broad Institute

A joint venture between Harvard and MIT, producing a huge proportion of the world's best genetic science, where Pardis Sabeti also has an appointment.

NORAD

A super high-tech military command scanning skies for nukes, used as an analogy for a sophisticated, real-time disease tracking center that should be staffed 24/7 by data scientists.

Columbia University

Where radiation physicist David Brenner conducts his research on far UVC light.

Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security

Its senior scholar, Amesh Adalja, discussed the need for broad-spectrum antiviral drugs.

Stanford University

Where Sam Harris and Rob Reid briefly overlapped as undergraduates.

US Department of Health and Human Services

Posted the 1918 flu genome to the internet in 2005, despite warnings about its potential weaponization, illustrating a failure in imagination regarding exponential technology.

International Gene Synthesis Consortium

Founded by the synthetic biology industry to implement biosecurity practices, representing about 80% of global gene synthesis capacity, screening orders for dangerous DNA sequences.

One Day Sooner

An organization through which tens of thousands of people volunteered to participate in COVID-19 challenge trials, highlighting a willingness to take risks for societal benefit.

World Health Organization

Estimated COVID-19's case fatality rate between 0.5% and 1%, and tallied instances of H5N1 over a decade.

World Economic Forum

Proposed a common, robust, open-source DNA screening platform, in collaboration with the Nuclear Threat Initiative, to expand safety practices across the industry.

Nature

Published a study estimating that earlier lockdowns in China could have drastically reduced COVID-19 cases, highlighting the importance of early detection.

New York Times

Featured an article by Seth Stephens-Davidowitz on using Google searches to track and predict COVID-19 symptoms, and published an editorial on vaccine rollout inefficiencies.

National Science Advisory Board for Biosecurity

A US organization that agreed Ron Fouchier's modified H5N1 virus could result in an 'unimaginable catastrophe for which the world is inadequately prepared'.

Nigeria

The first country where the Sentinel program, a multi-tiered pandemic preemption system, is being launched.

MIT

A partner in the Broad Institute, a hub for genetic science.

Weill Cornell Medicine

Where geneticist Chris Mason, who runs the MetaSub survey, is a professor.

Fulbright Fellowship

A program that supported Rob Reid's research on secular opposition in Cairo.

Wuhan Institute of Virology

A biosafety level four lab from which many level-headed people believe COVID-19 might have leaked, highlighting concerns about lab security.

Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention

Its head learned about the COVID-19 outbreak by reading news online, indicating systemic failures in real-time tracking and reporting during the early stages of the pandemic.

University of Southampton

Where Shenji Lai, lead author of a Nature paper on China's COVID-19 interventions, is based.

Harvard School of Public Health

Harvey Fineberg, a proponent of universal vaccines, was a former dean here.

Congressional Budget Office

Estimated COVID-19 would cost the US alone $7.9 trillion in economic activity, emphasizing the massive cost of pandemics compared to prevention investments.

US Transportation Security Administration

Created after 9/11 to harden airport security, reducing hijackings, serving as an analogy for how synthetic biology infrastructure needs to be hardened against malicious actors.

Biden Administration

Has drawn up a multi-billion dollar pandemic budget, focusing on fighting COVID-19, with hopes for ongoing investment in pandemic readiness as a national security priority.

Saban Vaccine Institute

Where Harvey Fineberg has done work studying the potential for a universal flu vaccine.

Nuclear Threat Initiative

A non-profit that teamed up with the World Economic Forum to propose a common DNA screening platform for biosecurity.

FDA

The approval process for vaccines, discussed in the context of potentially accelerating it in emergencies, also mentioned in relation to a live smallpox virus discovered in a forgotten storage facility.

University of Colorado

Where Mark Hernandez, a pioneer in bioaerosol science, is based.

Concepts
1918 flu genome

The genetic blueprint of the Spanish Flu, posted to the internet by the HHS in 2005, which could be catastrophically weaponized given advancements in synthetic biology.

Gain of Function Research

Research in which biologists modify a pathogen's genome to acquire new properties, like increased transmissibility, done by well-meaning scientists but posing immense risks of accidental leaks.

CRISPR

The world's most celebrated gene editing tool, which didn't exist when H5N1 flu was modified, but is now taught in high schools, indicating the rapid proliferation of powerful biotechnology.

anti-natalism

A philosophy arguing that human lives are so unpleasant the ethical thing is to minimize the number of humans living, mentioned as a 'crazy motive' that could drive someone to launch a doomsday pandemic.

Greece

A very recent study showed an 80% drop in respiratory infections amongst older adults who were given the BCG vaccine, as well as a 50% drop in all other forms of infection.

Far-UVC light

A high-frequency band of ultraviolet light, specifically around 222 nanometers, which research by David Brenner suggests kills microorganisms like influenza and coronaviruses without damaging human tissue due to its inability to penetrate dead skin cells.

Synthetic Biology

A new branch of science that is an 'exponential technology', meaning it gets more powerful and cheaper rapidly, leading to the democratization of capabilities previously restricted to elites.

Global Virome Project

Keeps a wary eye on bugs that haven't yet jumped to humans but may one day do so, emphasizing the need for proactive measures against zoonotic viruses.

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