E110: 2023 Bestie Predictions!

Picked as a potential political winner in 2023, then later shorted by Chamath for Republican nomination, arguing he peaked too early.

His foreign policy approach of open dialogue with adversaries is contrasted with Biden's, and a wild prediction is made about his weight loss and political future.

CEO of OpenAI, described as a very smart and astute investor, and highly impressive by Paul Graham.

Compared to the IMF, as he received heat for raising rates too late or too quickly, illustrating how the IMF may be blamed this year.

CEO of Amazon, mentioned for cutting 18,000 white-collar workers, signaling a major shift in the tech industry.

AKA Anakin Skywalker, whose Padawan Ahsoka has an anticipated TV series.

Cited as a famous example of legacy admissions at Harvard, with a large donation from his father reportedly securing his place.

The idea of a 'Richard Nixon pardon' is floated as a potential outcome for Donald Trump, where he agrees not to run in exchange for a pardon.

Critiqued for handing out money like candy from California's surplus in 2021 to boost his re-election numbers, instead of building a rainy day fund.

Mentioned as potentially not surviving the week due to the Speaker's race, and later discussed in relation to Trump's waning influence in the GOP.

AKA Darth Vader, whose Padawan Ahsoka has an anticipated TV series.

Author of an anticipated book about Sam Bankman-Fried (SBF), expected to be 'next level'.

Predicted to be the biggest political winner of 2023, as Saudi Arabia plays a crucial role in global currency reserves and forms new partnerships, specifically the Petro-Yuan trade.

His confrontational stance with MBS is critiqued as detrimental to US influence with Saudi Arabia, despite a later acknowledgment of a politically smart shift related to natural gas.

Described as needing to be depleted of resources and distracted as part of a cynical US strategy in the Ukraine war. Also mentioned meeting with Xi Jinping for a 'no limits partnership'.

Predicted that the 'bromance' between him and Biden will end in 2023, as their interests diverge after a Ukrainian counteroffensive.

A Maga faithful Republican who openly defied Trump's pleas to support Kevin McCarthy for Speaker, indicating Trump's waning influence.

Mentioned as a benchmark for impressiveness by Paul Graham in his praise of Sam Altman.

A Maga faithful Republican who openly defied Trump's pleas to support Kevin McCarthy for Speaker, indicating Trump's waning influence.

Denzel Washington's son, starred in Nolan's film Tenet.

Mentioned for picking Sam Altman to run Y Combinator, citing him as the most impressive person he met since Steve Jobs.

His dismemberment is cited as an example of an act that the US should be able to address while maintaining dialogue with foreign leaders.

Predicted to indict Donald Trump, initiating a legal and political battle.

CEO of Salesforce, noted for laying off 8,000 employees despite his company culture, indicating a widespread trend of cost-cutting.

White House correspondent who reported that the US agreed to send Bradley armored vehicles to Ukraine.

Director of Oppenheimer, Dunkirk, Inception, Memento, and Tenet, praised for his work but criticized for Tenet being too confusing.

Chamath's pick for the biggest political winner for 2023, predicting she will emerge as a moderate Republican candidate capable of uniting the party and winning the presidential nomination.

Demonstrated that Twitter could be run with significantly fewer employees, influencing the perception of white-collar worker needs. Also discussed for Starlink as a future public company.

His name is invoked with the 'Peter Thiel award' for the most contrarian belief.

Mentioned for his prediction that interest rates will go to 5.4% in Q1, supporting the idea of investing in short-term T-bills.

Invoked as an expert on personal finance, suggesting people are buying cars far beyond what she would recommend.

Subject of an upcoming book by Michael Lewis, highly anticipated by the hosts.

His books 'I Am Spock' and 'I Am Not Spock' are referenced to illustrate the struggle of identity, similar to Prince Harry's book title.

His book of criticism on 70s films is recommended as an audiobook.

Recommended as an expert to bring on the podcast to explain how AI works on training data and the issues of copyright and derivative works.

Subject of a Supreme Court lawsuit regarding affirmative action policies and alleged discrimination against Asian American applicants.

Predicted to be the biggest political loser of 2023, as it steps in to support unwinding debt markets but will likely face criticism regardless of its actions.

Mentioned as an example of high costs for rocket construction ($5 billion), which Elon Musk and Relativity Space have drastically reduced through innovation.

Mentioned as an equipment company benefiting from infrastructure spending tesis, independent of economic conditions.

Its pension system provided a huge infusion of capital to Blackstone's B-REIT, receiving an 11.5% guaranteed interest.

A group that filed lawsuits against Harvard and UNC over affirmative action policies, arguing discrimination against Asian American applicants.

The Wall Street Journal is mentioned as consistently writing big pieces about topics discussed on the podcast, like Sequoia's public equities distribution and Citadel's success.

Mentioned as countries that would like to get off the US dollar as a global reserve currency, due to its use as a geopolitical tool.

Mentioned as the approving body for cell and gene therapies, with 27 currently approved therapies on the market.

Mentioned in the context of venture capital firms distributing public equities, which was discussed as a fraught and difficult process.

Subject of a Supreme Court lawsuit regarding affirmative action policies and alleged discrimination against Asian American applicants.

Mentioned as an organization that the US asked to ease up on supply cuts, but they only made a nominal cut.

An article from The New York Times is cited about natural gas prices in Europe falling and Europe's dependence on American LNG.

Legislation that students for fair admissions allege Harvard and UNC violate by discriminating against Asian American applicants.

Mentioned as a bill that delivered hundreds of billions for climate special interests, after which Biden changed course on the oil and gas industry.

A deepening discussion where Saudi Arabia would sell oil to China and be paid in Yuan, potentially shifting global currency reserves away from the US dollar.

The prospect of Saudi Arabia selling oil to China in Yuan (the 'Petro-Yuan trade') is presented as a significant shift away from the US dollar as the global reserve currency.

Predicted to be true big winners if they form small groups to start companies, turning "lemons into lemonade" from big Tech layoffs.

Sacks' pick for the biggest business winner, benefiting from Europe's rapid shift away from Russian gas and increased imports of American LNG.

Anticipated trend for 2023, becoming more mainstream for treating genetic diseases and protein deficiencies, with 27 FDA-approved therapies and over a thousand in clinical trials.

Anticipated trend for 2023, focusing on engineering cells to attack and destroy cancer, with therapies becoming more mainstream and requiring new infrastructure.

Discussed as a policy with good intentions, but noted for becoming problematic due to universities deciding which minorities count and unintentionally discriminating against Asian Americans, leading to a likely repeal.

The hosts lament that California did not put a third of its 2021 surplus into a rainy day fund, which would have helped mitigate the current $24 billion deficit.

An AI model from OpenAI highlighted as a significant innovation driving new startups and potentially disrupting Google Search. Later discussed for tender offer at $29B valuation and copyright issues.

One of Amazon's three pillars of business, alongside e-commerce and Prime memberships.

A product company used for the podcast that OpenAI invested in, described as an incredible product.

Apple's platform, facing political pressure due to its 30% revenue share being called monopolistic and subject to antitrust scrutiny.

An AI model from OpenAI mentioned as a demonstration of its capabilities, leading to many new startups.

Chamath's pick for the biggest potential business loser this year, due to potential decay in quality and competition from AI models like ChatGPT which can provide direct answers.

Mentioned as a platform where young kids can consume content similar to TikTok, suggesting TikTok is not as indispensable as some believe.

Mentioned as a potential acquisition target for Amazon as it expands into the health sector.

Proposed as a concept similar to robots.txt for the internet, to address permission for AI models to crawl data.

Microsoft's search engine, which could be powered by OpenAI's AI for AI-driven and voice-driven search.

Chamath predicts Google Search will be the biggest business loser, noting that other organizations can crawl the web and train AI models, offering competitive search results. Also mentioned for deep investments in AI.

Predicted to divest under duress and go public, as there will be unanimous support in US political debates to get it out of the country. Its lack of sticky network effects and content overlap with YouTube is discussed.

Mentioned as an equipment company benefiting from infrastructure spending tesis, independent of economic conditions.

Mentioned as a company that benefits from layoffs and more people participating in gig platforms due to sticky unemployment.

Mentioned as a company with enough time and money to compete in AI with Google.

Mentioned for laying off 18,000 white-collar workers. Later, its three-legged stool business model is discussed (e-commerce, Prime, AWS) with a prediction that health will become its fourth pillar through acquisitions.

Mentioned for laying off 8,000 employees due to slowed growth and unsustainable sales and marketing spending, leading to cascading effects for its vendors.

Mentioned as a potential automotive acquisition target for Apple, seen as easier due to a fragmented market.

Mentioned as a potential automotive acquisition target for Apple.

Mentioned as a potential acquisition target for Amazon as it expands into the health sector.

A platform where content creators often cross-post their content from TikTok, demonstrating TikTok's lack of exclusive network effects.

Mentioned as a diversified business that plays across multiple infrastructure opportunities and acquires small companies cheaply.

Chamath's other pick for biggest business winner, now the second most highly valued space business, focused on 3D printing entire rockets to dramatically reduce costs, with a $10 billion order book contingent on a successful January launch.

Mentioned as Friedberg's biggest business winner prediction last year.

Mentioned as a company with enough time and money to compete in AI with Google.

Mentioned as a potential acquisition target for Amazon as it expands into the health sector.

Mentioned as a potential acquisition target for Amazon as it expands into the health sector.

Mentioned as an oil and gas services company benefiting from infrastructure spending, independent of economic conditions.

Reportedly involved in a tender offer for OpenAI.

Highlighted as a recipient of high revenue from 'pot shops' (market makers) in 2022, making almost $45 billion in revenues over two years with $56 billion AUM.

Mentioned as a company that benefits from layoffs and more people participating in entrepreneurial platforms due to sticky unemployment.

Predicted to buy something completely out of the ordinary, like Disney or an automotive company (Fiat Chrysler or Tesla), due to pressures on its core business from China ties, App Store revenues, and waning consumer demand.

Announced significant declines in consumer demand for electronics, which is expected to impact Apple as well.

Mentioned as a potential acquisition target for Apple, especially with its depressed stock price.

Mentioned as an oil and gas services company benefiting from infrastructure spending, independent of economic conditions.

Mentioned as a diversified business that plays across multiple infrastructure opportunities and acquires small companies cheaply.

Its B-REIT product is discussed for its massive redemptions requiring an infusion of capital from the University of California pension system, signaling a potential reckoning in commercial real estate.

Reportedly involved in a tender offer for OpenAI, noted for not generally doing overpriced deals.

Chamath's pick for biggest business winner, described as crushing on all cylinders and the only real game in town for launch capability, with huge potential given its 3D printing innovations.

Friedberg's pick for biggest business winner, poised to have an amazing year due to its generative AI models (DALL-E, ChatGPT), potential for massive Microsoft deals, and ecosystem development.

Expected to make a massive billion-dollar plus investment in OpenAI, potentially using its AI for Bing search and voice-driven search.

Mentioned as a company that benefits from layoffs and more people participating in gig platforms due to sticky unemployment.

Used as an example of a company Elon Musk demonstrated could be run with significantly fewer employees, leading to the idea of 'surplus elites' or white-collar worker layoffs.

Announced plans to diversify its production model away from being solely a service provider to Apple, highlighting pressure on Apple's low-cost manufacturing.

Mentioned as a potential acquisition target for Apple, though monopolistic issues would make it hard.

Mentioned as a potential automotive acquisition target for Apple.

Mentioned as a company that benefits from layoffs and more people participating in gig platforms due to sticky unemployment.

Acquired by Amazon, seen as an early step in Amazon's expansion into the health industry.

Mentioned as a company benefiting from pharmaceutical infrastructure buildout and a diversified business model.

Used as an example of a company whose valuation cratered while its value in society continued to go up, illustrating the disconnect between market performance and societal value.

Mentioned in the context of buy now, pay later companies dealing with breaking consumer credit.

A Christopher Nolan film loved by the hosts.

Prince Harry's upcoming book, generating discussion about its title and the self-deprecating nature.

Christopher Nolan's original, mind-bending film, highly praised.

A Christopher Nolan film about time and reverse, described as his worst and impossible to follow.

A TV series anticipated to return for season three.

A TV series anticipated to return for a new season.

A TV series featuring Anakin Skywalker's Padawan, highly anticipated.

A new Marvel movie, with a new villain (Kang) rivaling Thanos.

A Christopher Nolan film mentioned for being complex but enjoyable.

A genre film about a bear that consumes cocaine and goes on a rampage, jokingly suggested as a top movie pick.

Christopher Nolan's upcoming film about the Manhattan Project, highly anticipated for 2023.

A Marvel series, with season two anticipated for 2023.

Europe started importing this from the US after cutting dependence on Russian gas, leading to a win for the American natural gas industry.

Mentioned as having been blown up, physically separating Europe from Russian gas dependence and making them reliant on American LNG.

Armored vehicles, characterized as 'our best tanks,' that the U.S. agreed to send to Ukraine, despite previous reluctance.

Recommended as a conservative best-performing asset, offering 4.5-5% safely while waiting for market certainty.

Mentioned as being canceled by Biden early in his term, indicating an initial tough stance on the oil and gas industry.

Predicted to go public and be the biggest business deal of 2023, with a valuation of at least half of SpaceX's private mark ($75 billion), driven by a massive total addressable market beyond existing broadband.

Predicted to be used by Donald Trump for significant weight loss, highlighting its growing use and effectiveness for weight management.

Described as a 'clear wonder drug' with unimpeachable 50-year longitudinal data on its value for health.

Mentioned for its incredible benefits in cell regeneration, longevity, and glucose management, even when taken prophylactically, especially given the prevalence of pre-diabetes in the American diet.

A class of drugs like Ozempic, discussed for their extraordinary early data in insulin response and cardiac health, with potential for widespread use for weight issues.

The potential retaking of Crimea by Ukraine is discussed as an extremely dangerous move that could precipitate a nuclear war, and ideally should be prevented by the US administration.

Predicted to be a big political loser in 2023, facing gigantic budget shortfalls and incompetent financial management.

Predicted to have a pivotal year in terms of global influence, particularly due to deepening discussions around the oil-yuan trade with China.

Predicted to face similar problems as California, with its tax base dependent on suffering commercial real estate, leading to potential austerity and pain.