Key Moments

Saifedean Ammous: Bitcoin, Anarchy, and Austrian Economics | Lex Fridman Podcast #284

Lex FridmanLex Fridman
Science & Technology5 min read255 min video
May 11, 2022|792,269 views|19,353|2,691
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TL;DR

Bitcoin is the hardest money ever invented, a decentralized, apolitical technology fixing inflationary fiat systems.

Key Insights

1

Money emerged as a medium of exchange, essential for the division of labor and storing value over time, evolving towards 'harder' forms difficult to produce.

2

Austrian economics emphasizes subjective value and marginal analysis, critiquing Keynesian economics as inflationist propaganda that ignores real economic principles.

3

Fiat money originated from government wartime financing manipulation, leading to constant inflation and a pervasive high time preference in society, disrupting savings and encouraging debt.

4

Bitcoin is presented as the hardest money due to its fixed, immutable supply (21 million) and decentralized, leaderless structure, operating without trusted third parties.

5

The energy consumption of Bitcoin is justified as a necessary cost for a superior, globally accessible monetary technology, akin to other essential modern advancements.

6

Bitcoin's volatility is seen as a temporary characteristic of a nascent asset, expected to decrease as its market capitalization grows, eventually replacing government bonds as a store of value.

THE ESSENCE AND EVOLUTION OF MONEY IN CIVILIZATION

Money is primarily a medium of exchange, acquired not for consumption but for later trade, facilitating the division of labor and sophisticated economies. Without money, the 'coincidence of wants' problem makes complex specialization impractical. Beyond immediate exchange, money serves as a crucial mechanism for storing value into the future. Historically, societies adopted 'harder' monies—those inherently difficult to produce—because they better retained value over time, enabling long-term planning and fostering civilization by lowering time preference (the preference for present over future gratification).

AUSTRIAN ECONOMICS VERSUS KEYNESIAN IDEOLOGY

Austrian economics, rooted in fundamental principles of human action and scarcity, developed marginal analysis, which revolutionized understanding of economic decision-making by focusing on choices at the margin. This school critically views Keynesian economics as a flawed, even propagandistic, justification for inflationary policies. Keynesian theories, often promoted by central banks and governments, suggest that inflation can stimulate economic activity. Saifedean vehemently rejects this, arguing that inflation destabilizes economies, destroys savings, and ultimately leads to misallocations of capital by distorting natural market signals.

THE BIRTH AND DESTRUCTIVE NATURE OF FIAT MONEY

Fiat money's origins are traced to government manipulation, particularly during World War I when Great Britain financed the war by effectively printing money and confiscating gold from citizens. This act of 'masterly manipulation' (as Keynes reportedly called it) decoupled currency from objective scarcity, creating a system where central banks could infinitely increase the money supply. This led to persistent inflation, price and wage controls, and a cascade of economic problems. Saifedean argues that fiat money is a system built on fraud and coercion, forcing public participation in an inherently unstable and unjust monetary order.

FIAT MONEY'S PERNICIOUS IMPACT ON TIME PREFERENCE AND SOCIETY

The most significant negative effect of fiat money is its elevation of societal time preference. With currencies constantly devaluing (global fiat supply has increased by an average of 14% annually over the last 60 years), individuals are discouraged from saving and compelled to become investors or 'gamblers' just to preserve wealth. This shift fosters a short-term mindset, eroding long-term planning, savings rates, and even morality. Examples from hyperinflationary economies illustrate this, where immediate consumption overshadows future considerations, negatively impacting everything from architecture to social stability. Rich individuals and governments benefit most from this system by leveraging borrowing to acquire appreciating hard assets.

THE DYSFUNCTIONAL GLOBAL MONETARY SYSTEM AND THE NEED FOR HARD MONEY

The contemporary global monetary system is primarily dollar-centric, with other currencies heavily influenced by US policy and the dollar's role as a reserve currency. This centralizes immense power, enabling economic sanctions and asset confiscation, thereby politicizing global finance. Attempts by nations like Russia and China to create alternative, commodity-backed systems are deemed unsustainable due to the inherent 'softness' of industrial commodities. Metals like copper and silver, unlike gold, are consumed by industry, making their supply too elastic and their stock-to-flow ratio too low to function as stable monetary bases. Governments pursuing such routes risk devastating impacts on commodity markets and global economies.

BITCOIN AS THE ULTIMATE HARD MONEY AND DECENTRALIZED SOLUTION

Bitcoin is lauded as the most advanced form of money due to two core properties: its absolutely fixed supply of 21 million units, making it the 'hardest' money ever invented, and its decentralized, trustless operation without a central authority. This immutability and lack of a central controller prevent arbitrary increases in supply or confiscation, addressing fundamental flaws of both gold (costly verification and transport) and fiat (inflation and political control). Bitcoin's 'sellability' across time (store of value) and space (fast, cheap global transactions) positions it as a superior monetary technology that combines the best aspects of previous monetary forms.

ADDRESSING BITCOIN'S CRITICISMS: ENERGY AND VOLATILITY

Critics often target Bitcoin's energy consumption, but Saifedean argues this is a misguided concern. Energy consumption is a hallmark of technological progress and increased quality of life. Bitcoin's energy use is justified by its immense benefits, similar to how airplanes use more energy than kayaks. Furthermore, Bitcoin mining uniquely leverages isolated or underutilized energy sources that are not competitive with residential or industrial demand, pushing innovation in energy infrastructure. Regarding volatility, it's attributed to Bitcoin's nascent stage as a relatively small asset, expected to stabilize as its market capitalization grows. This volatility also reinforces a low-time-preference mindset, encouraging long-term holding.

THE FUTURE: BITCOIN'S ASCENSION AND THE MONARCHY OF MONEY

The ultimate failure of fiat currency, if not due to a catastrophic event, would likely lead governments back to a gold standard, though this too is deemed unsustainable in the long run. Saifedean predicts Bitcoin will eventually surpass gold and national currencies, even encroaching upon the bond market. He dismisses 'altcoins' as inherently centralized 'securities' masquerading as decentralized currencies. While an anarchist in principle, Saifedean expresses recent sympathy for monarchy (with minimized government) as a potentially better system than democracy for preserving individual freedom and fostering low-time-preference thinking, as a king's multi-generational self-interest aligns with long-term prosperity. Ultimately, Bitcoin's decentralized, apolitical nature offers humanity a path to a more free and prosperous future, resolving fundamental issues in human governance and economics.

Money Supply Growth Rates Comparison

Data extracted from this episode

Monetary System/CurrencyAnnual Supply Increase Rate
Gold Standard~1.5%
Silver (Historical)~5%
Silver (Modern Industrial Use)~30%
Gold (Bitcoin Standard data)~1.5-2%
Global Fiat (Weighted Average 1960-2020)~14%
Global Fiat (Unweighted Average)~30%
Bitcoin (Current)~1.8% (declining to 0%)

Common Questions

Money is primarily a medium of exchange, not acquired for its own sake, but to be traded for other goods. It is a market good that allows for the division of labor and the growth of sophisticated economies by solving the 'coincidence of wants' problem, making trade more efficient. Money also functions as a mechanism for storing value into the future.

Topics

Mentioned in this video

People
Paul Krugman

A Neo-Keynesian economist and previous guest on the podcast, criticized by Saifedean Ammous.

Karl Menger

Considered the "father of the Austrian school," he invented marginal analysis in economics with his 1871 book Principles of Economics.

Eugen von Böhm-Bawerk

A student of Karl Menger who developed capital theory, continuing the Austrian economic tradition.

Satoshi Nakamoto

The anonymous founder of Bitcoin, whose disappearance is seen as a crucial aspect of Bitcoin's decentralization and long-term viability.

Friedrich Hayek

An Austrian economist quoted at the end of the podcast, emphasizing that economic control is control over all human ends.

Pierre Rochard

A friend of Ammous and a prominent mind in Bitcoin, who theorizes that Bitcoin could bring peace to the Middle East.

John Maynard Keynes

An economist whose theories in the 1930s provided justification for government-printed money and inflationary policies, criticized as 'inflation apologia' by Ammous.

Thomas Edison

An inventor who expressed disbelief in the possibility of flight, highlighting the skepticism faced by pioneers like the Wright brothers.

John Bradbury

Referred to as 'Montagu,' the chief of the Bank of England who commissioned a study into the bank's actions during WWI.

Michael Saylor

Mentioned for his compelling arguments about the winner-take-all nature of money and the categorical difference between Bitcoin and altcoins.

Grigori Perelman

A Russian mathematician who famously declined the Fields Medal, cited an example of someone prioritizing principles over financial reward, similar to the idealized Satoshi Nakamoto.

Jeff Bezos

Mentioned in the context of AWS, highlighting that even powerful figures don't 'print money' through cloud computing services, unlike founders of proprietary coins.

Michael Malice

An anarchist and author, known for his strong anti-government stance, whom Ammous considers a philosophical ally.

Ludwig von Mises

Described as arguably the most important economist ever, he developed the theory of money and credit and authored Human Action.

John Osborne

Commissioned by the Bank of England chief to study the bank's wartime actions, his report, 'The War and the Currency,' was kept confidential until 2017.

Wright brothers

Cited as an example of entrepreneurs taking a huge risk (flight) in the late 19th century, enabled by gold savings and a low time preference.

Isaac Newton

As Warden of the Mint, he set the value of the British pound to a specific amount of gold, a standard that lasted for centuries.

Alex Gladstein

Mentioned for his work on how Bitcoin can decrease suffering in authoritarian regimes, connecting financial ideas to real-world impact.

Jonathan Bier

Author of 'The Block Size War,' a book detailing the 2017 conflict that demonstrated the sovereignty of Bitcoin nodes over miners.

Locations
China

Cited as a country that suffered from staying on a silver standard while global markets shifted to gold, highlighting monetary policy's impact on national wealth.

Palau

Mentioned as the nearby island where limestone for Yap Island's money originated, highlighting the effort required to transport it.

Miami Beach

An example of an area where real estate prices have appreciated significantly over the last century, reflecting inflation in desirable goods.

Japan

Mentioned in the context of needing to understand global central bank monetary policy for investment decisions in a fiat system.

Iran

A country that has faced sanctions from the US government, being kicked off the SWIFT network, illustrating the political nature of fiat systems.

Ramallah

A city in the West Bank where Saifedean Ammous grew up, experiencing firsthand the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and settlement expansion.

Jaffa

The historical home of Saifedean Ammous's wife's family, from which they were evicted, now on the outskirts of Tel Aviv.

Germany

Mentioned in the context of the Franco-Prussian War, where Germany's shift from a silver to a gold standard led to silver's decline.

Yap Island

An island famously used as an example where large limestone discs served as money due to their scarcity and difficulty of production.

India

Mentioned alongside China as suffering from remaining on a silver standard in the late 19th century.

Tel Aviv

The modern Israeli city, with Jaffa historically its port city, mentioned in the context of Palestinian displacement.

West Africa

Cited as a region where imported glass beads served as money due to the absence of local glass-making technology, making them rare and hard to produce.

Afghanistan

Another country mentioned as being sanctioned off the SWIFT network, losing access to the global monetary system.

Wall Street

Referred to as the home of financial professionals who struggle to beat inflation, even with advanced tools and expertise.

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