Key Moments

E43: Innovative venture strategies, Zymergen's implosion, Square acquires Afterpay & more

All-In PodcastAll-In Podcast
People & Blogs3 min read92 min video
Aug 6, 2021|164,218 views|3,280|479
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TL;DR

Venture funding strategies, Zymergen's failure, Square's Afterpay acquisition, and financial deplatforming discussed.

Key Insights

1

Innovative venture strategies include internal markups, venture studios, and deployment tactics, with a focus on specialization.

2

Zymergen's implosion highlights the challenges of deep tech, the need for product-market fit, and the risks of over-hyped narratives.

3

Square's acquisition of Afterpay for $30 billion is seen as a move to consolidate financial services and enhance its marketplace.

INNOVATIVE VENTURE STRATEGIES AND VENTURE STUDIOS

The discussion begins with an overview of innovative venture strategies, including internal markups, the concept of venture studios, and diverse deployment strategies. Friedberg highlights his 'production board' as a venture studio focused on synthetic biology, emphasizing the importance of deep expertise and a specific focus rather than trying to 'boil the ocean.' Chamath supports this, noting that such specialization gives investors confidence due to the entrepreneur's execution capability and clear swim lane, making it easier to fit into a portfolio.

THE IMPLOSION OF ZYMERGEN

Zymergen's public failure is dissected, illustrating the perils of deep tech. The company promised to revolutionize manufacturing through synthetic biology but struggled to find product-market fit and commercial viability. Despite raising significant capital, including from SoftBank, they failed to deliver on product revenue, ultimately leading to a stock crash and CEO departure. This serves as a cautionary tale about the difficulty of achieving unit economics in deep tech and the dangers of hyping a narrative without concrete results.

FINANCIAL DEPLATFORMING AND THE POWER OF FINTECH

A significant portion of the conversation revolves around financial deplatforming and the consolidation of power within fintech. PayPal's controversial policy of banning certain search terms, influenced by groups like the ADL, raises concerns about financial access being weaponized. The discussion warns that this could extend to denying people livelihoods, drawing parallels to social media deplatforming and emphasizing the need for regulatory scrutiny.

SQUARE'S ACQUISITION OF AFTERPAY

Square's $30 billion acquisition of Afterpay is analyzed as a strategic move to consolidate its position in the financial services marketplace. The deal is seen as enabling Square to offer more integrated buy-now-pay-later options for merchants and consumers, strengthening its two-sided marketplace. This move is framed within the broader trend of financial services convergence, where companies are consolidating banking, lending, trading, and crypto services.

THE CHALLENGES OF DEEP TECH AND VENTURE CAPITAL

The conversation delves into the ethical and practical challenges of investing in deep tech, using examples like Theranos and Nikola. The hosts highlight the role of compelling narratives in driving investment, sometimes at the expense of rigorous due diligence. They emphasize that while narratives are powerful, especially in early-stage investing, later-stage investments must be grounded in irrefutable metrics and product-market fit to avoid fraud and protect employees and investors.

INVESTOR RESPONSIBILITY AND MARKET HYGIENE

The consensus is that investors, particularly those deploying large sums of other people's money, have a responsibility to conduct thorough diligence. The discussion criticizes the practice of marking up one's own investments and stresses the importance of milestone-based financing. The examples of Zymergen and Nikola underscore that suspending disbelief, especially in deep tech, can lead to spectacular failures and significant financial losses for many, despite the compelling stories told.

Public Market Rewards for Companies

Data extracted from this episode

StrategyDescriptionExample Companies
Incrementally acquire or build adjacent featuresContinuously add features to consolidate services, rewarding market cap growth.Square (Afterpay), Goldman Sachs (BNPL), Apple (BNPL)
Flip costs into revenueConvert significant expense lines into new revenue-generating businesses.Amazon (Kindle, Basics, Fire, Echo, AWS, Prime, Payments)

Financial Services Categories by Retention and Profit

Data extracted from this episode

CategoryOrder of Retention (Longest to Shortest)Order of Profit Generation per Customer (Highest to Lowest)
Banking1st5th
Lending2nd3rd
Trading3rd1st
Crypto4th2nd
Insurance5th4th

Common Questions

The Production Board (TPB) is David Friedberg's primary vehicle for incubating new businesses and making investments. Friedberg aims for absolute value creation by building businesses with internal resources, focusing on synthetic biology, and attracting great talent to solve complex problems.

Topics

Mentioned in this video

Companies
Founders Fund

Venture firm where Keith Rabois is a General Partner, mentioned in the context of VCs also taking on operating roles.

Theranos

A disgraced health technology company whose CEO was accused of fraud, used as an example of companies with grand narratives but lacking actual product.

The Production Board

David Friedberg's primary vehicle for incubating new businesses and making investments, which recently raised capital.

BetaWorks

A venture studio known for success with a prototypical web 2.0 social business.

Nikola

Electric vehicle manufacturer whose founder was indicted for lying and selling shares, cited as an example of spectacular implosions in deep tech due to fraud and hype.

Atomic

A venture studio founded by Jack Abraham, highly praised for producing multiple unicorns due to Abraham's exceptional idea generation.

Sutter Hill Ventures

Venture firm where Mike Speiser is a partner, supporting his operator-VC model.

WeWork

Cited as an example of massive overvaluation and investor suspension of disbelief, with billions invested despite an economically unviable, unscalable model.

Shopify

An e-commerce platform that pays a substantial amount to Stripe for payment processing, highlighting the potential for companies to internalize these expenses.

Blackstone

A private equity firm cited as an example of an indelible brand scaling assets under management unbelievably.

Bix

A consumer company started by Mike Speiser in the early 2000s, later acquired by Yahoo.

SoftBank

An investment firm known for making large, often overvalued, seed investments, which contributed to Zymergen's inflated valuation and subsequent issues.

OpenStore

Company where Keith Rabois became CEO, showcasing the blurring of roles between VCs and founders.

SpaceX

Aerospace manufacturer and space transport services company founded by Elon Musk, cited as a deep tech business he successfully funded for many years.

Afterpay

A 'buy now, pay later' product acquired by Square for $30 billion, enabling Square to solidify its lending capabilities and increase sales for its merchants.

Netflix

Streaming service that Disney is predicted to 'roll right over' after becoming a tech company itself.

Dollar Shave Club

A successful company that emerged from the Science venture studio model.

Craft Ventures

David Sacks' venture firm that closed its third fund totaling $1.12 billion, explicitly focused on SaaS and marketplaces.

Pure Storage

A company Mike Speiser was involved with, highlighting his track record.

Zymergen

A synthetic biology company that went public at $31, reached $48, then saw its stock drop 70% after problems with its product pipeline and revenue projections were announced, with its founding CEO stepping down.

Bill Me Later

A company acquired by PayPal in 2008 for $1 billion, which had a similar 'buy now, pay later' thesis to Afterpay.

Morgan Stanley

An investment bank that is a great example of being forced to sell itself due to being unable to expand without key licenses in financial services.

Alphabet

Invested in The Production Board's holding company, becoming a minority shareholder and taking a board seat.

Y Combinator

A prominent accelerator mentioned as having a model focused on cranking out many businesses, contrasted with The Production Board's focus on value creation.

Yahoo

Acquired Bix, a consumer company founded by Mike Speiser.

Tesla

Electric vehicle company founded by Elon Musk, cited as a deep tech business that delivered revenue early on with the Roadster sports car.

Square

Acquired Afterpay for $30 billion in an equity-based deal, consolidating its financial services marketplace and enhancing its lending tools for consumers and merchants.

Stripe

A financial technology company mentioned in the context of large businesses like Shopify paying significant fees for payment processing, suggesting a trend towards in-housing these services.

Yammer

Enterprise social networking service, founded by David Sacks, whose growth tactics influenced Craft Ventures' SaaS investment thesis.

Twitter

Social media platform mentioned as the first site to kick off Donald Trump, setting a precedent for de-platforming that other tech platforms followed.

Blue Origin

Aerospace company founded by Jeff Bezos, highlighted as an example of a deep tech venture funded for decades with personal capital.

Snowflake

An enterprise software company started by Mike Speiser, which went public with a valuation of $82 billion.

PayPal

Accused of creating a 'no-buy list' by working with organizations like the ADL and SPLC to ban accounts of deemed undesirable individuals and groups, raising concerns about financial access and censorship.

Disney

The only major studio not gobbled up by a tech company, became a tech company itself, rolling over Netflix.

Virgin Galactic

Space tourism company mentioned for its playbook of selling products in advance, similar to Tesla's early revenue generation.

Quibi

A short-form streaming platform that lost a billion dollars without requiring scientific breakthroughs, failing due to a lack of market proof for its format.

Amazon

Cited as the 'gold standard' for companies that turn costs into revenue, by creating new businesses (Kindle, AWS, Prime) out of previously large expenses.

People
Jeff Fluhr

General Partner at Craft Ventures, focused on marketplaces and founder/CEO of StubHub.

Meg Whitman

Co-founder of Quibi, seen as an odd choice due to her background as a late-stage CEO rather than a product innovator.

Bill Gross

Founder of Idealab, known for his success with the venture studio approach.

Joshua Hoffman

Founding CEO of Zymergen, who stepped down after the company announced significant issues with its commercial product pipeline.

Elon Musk

Referred to as the "one hype man on planet earth" good enough to pull off deep tech businesses, successfully funding Tesla and SpaceX.

Elizabeth Holmes

Founder of Theranos, mentioned for her board composition, her relationship with COO Sunny Balwani, and her upcoming fraud trial.

Donald Trump

Former U.S. President, whose de-platforming from Twitter is cited as a precedent for censorship by tech companies.

Jason Calacanis

Host of 'This Week in Startups' and the podcast being recorded; discusses his travels and observations.

Mike Speiser

Partner at Sutter Hill Ventures, who incubated, started, and was the original head of Snowflake, demonstrating success as an operator-VC.

John Carreyrou

Wall Street Journal journalist who broke the Theranos story wide open, providing inside tips.

Jack Abraham

Founder of Atomic, described as a 'phenomenal idea guy' with 10x ideas, successful in the venture studio model.

Reed Hoffman

Partner at Greylock, described as an incredible operator and business builder who continues that work while being a VC.

Larry Page

Co-founder of Google/Alphabet, with whom David Friedberg had discussions about doing something together before Alphabet invested in The Production Board.

Jeffrey Katzenberg

Creative mind behind Quibi, who had an idea to build a studio for short-form video but failed to prove market interest before investing a billion dollars.

David Sacks

Co-host of the All-In Pod, announced closing a $1.1 billion fund for Craft Ventures focusing on SaaS and marketplaces, and is involved in the 'Call-In' audio app.

Sunny Balwani

COO of Theranos, revealed to be in a relationship with Elizabeth Holmes, adding to the red flags of the company.

Keith Rabois

Partnered with Jack Abraham on OpenStore, decided to become CEO while still a GP at Founders Fund, illustrating the blurring lines between VC and founder roles.

Jeff Bezos

Founder of Amazon and Blue Origin, mentioned for self-funding Blue Origin for 20 years, demonstrating significant personal investment in deep tech.

Chamath Palihapitiya

Co-host, who asked David Friedberg for questions about Zymergen prior to an interview, was confounded by the business model, and called out Theranos as a fraud on CNBC.

Ari Levy

Journalist who wrote about The Production Board's funding, described as an 'old school legit journalist' and fan of the podcast.

Teddy Roosevelt

Former U.S. President, cited as a successful Republican who busted up cartels and fought for common Americans, presented as a playbook for modern Republicans to oppose tech monopolies.

Frank Slootman

CEO of Snowflake, described as a legend who took the company public.

Dan Schulman

CEO of PayPal, called out to be questioned by Congress about PayPal's 'no-buy list' initiative and the denial of financial access.

Yuval Noah Harari

Author of 'Sapiens', whose work on narratives defining human societies influenced David Sacks' approach to VC investing.

Jack Dorsey

CEO of Twitter and Square, noted for holding the power to deny people's speech on a major speech platform and access to a major consumer payments platform, raising concerns about power accumulation.

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