Key Moments
All-In's Best Ideas Pitch Competition: 4 Investors Present Their Top Trades Live
All-In PodcastKey Moments
MGM's bid from Barry Diller, Japan's Osaka casino, and potential Dubai legalization make it a potential triple, but AI's insatiable power demand could double Talen Energy's value.
Key Insights
MGM Resorts' stock price surged from $37 to the high $40s after Barry Diller's bid, with potential upside to $150 per share driven by its Vegas assets, the Osaka casino license (estimated $2B EBITDA), and a potential Dubai gaming legalization, valuing the company at $60-$150 per share.
Talen Energy, with 2 GW of nuclear and 6 GW of natural gas, trades at a $25 billion enterprise value, significantly below its estimated $45 billion replacement cost, with projections of $50-100+ per share in free cash flow within 8 years due to power demand from AI and other technological advancements.
Actis Oncology (AKTS), a clinical-stage biotech company, is developing radiotherapies targeting cancer with a $1B market cap and over 3 years of cash, with initial clinical data for nectin 4 and B7H3 programs expected in Q1 2027, and potential valuation of $10 billion ($200/share) if one program succeeds.
GeoNet (ticker: GEOD) is building the world's largest RTK network with over 22,000 decentralized base stations, offering centimeter-level location accuracy and rapidly growing revenue exceeding $1 million ARR, with 80% of revenue used for open market token buybacks.
The "Best Ideas" format, inspired by the Ira Sohn Investment Conference, aims to showcase high-conviction trades from skilled managers who may not receive broad public distribution, with MGM Resorts ultimately winning the audience vote.
The increasing demand for power, particularly driven by AI, is creating significant supply chain and infrastructure challenges, potentially leading to shortages and price increases for existing power capacity.
MGM Resorts: A multi-faceted bet on gaming expansion and strategic acquisition
Aaron Cowen of Suvretta Capital presented MGM Resorts (MGM) as a compelling investment, highlighting a potential triple from its then-current price in the high $40s. The thesis is built on several pillars: Barry Diller's aggressive 26% stake and recent bid aims to acquire the company, suggesting a financial buyer seeking value. MGM's core Vegas assets are seen as improving, with Caesars' acquisition driving market dynamics. However, the real growth potential lies in international expansion. Japan's Osaka casino license, expected to open in 2030, represents a massive opportunity in a $40 billion market, potentially generating $2 billion in EBITDA. Cowen likens this to Macau's $30 billion market and Vegas's $10 billion market, with Osaka's location being particularly attractive to Chinese gamblers. Furthermore, MGM is building a property in Dubai with space allocated for a potential casino, should gambling be legalized there. This "free option" could add another $40-50 per share. Cowen stressed that Diller is a financial buyer, not strategic, aiming to capture this value, positioning MGM as 'in play' with significant upside, potentially reaching $150 per share.
Talen Energy: Powering the future with nuclear and natural gas assets
Dan Dreyfus from Bornite Capital pitched Talen Energy (TLN), framing it within the context of a cyclical power demand boom driven by technological innovation. He explained that historically, power demand grows with GDP, but technological breakthroughs like AI create exponential spikes. Dreyfus asserts that AI demand is not necessary to keep power markets tight, but it turbocharges them, creating shortages. He cited Sam Zell's principle of buying assets below replacement cost that will be needed in the future. Talen Energy, with 2 GW of nuclear and 6 GW of natural gas capacity, has an enterprise value of $25 billion, significantly below its estimated $45 billion replacement cost. This implies a potential doubling of equity value just to reach replacement cost. Dreyfus projects that as the market recognizes this scarcity, Talen could trade at a premium. He emphasized the need for massive power infrastructure buildout in the US, like China's 20-year expansion, to support AI, national security, and robotics, estimating a need for 106 GW in the PJM region alone over the next decade. Despite supply chain challenges for materials like nickel and silver, he believes existing capacity will remain tight, benefiting companies like Talen. Dreyfus projects significant free cash flow per share, ranging from $50 (doing nothing) to over $100 (building new capacity), with the stock currently in the high $30s.
Actis Oncology: Radiopharmaceuticals as a precision weapon against cancer
Oleg Nodelman of EcoR1 Capital presented Actis Oncology (AKTS), a biotech company focused on radiopharmaceuticals. He described biotech investing as a "casino" but positioned his fund as "poker players" focused on risk-reward. Actis is developing a platform for targeted cancer therapies using radioactive payloads delivered by 'mini-proteins' that act like micro-drones. These can precisely target cancer cells with minimal collateral damage. The company has a $1 billion market cap, $500 million enterprise value, and over three years of cash. The IPO was 18 times oversubscribed, with a $100 million order from Eli Lilly. Actis is targeting known validated targets like nectin 4 (for bladder cancer) and B7H3 (expressed on multiple solid tumors). Key de-risking factors include the ability to verify target engagement via imaging in early trials and the use of established targets. Initial clinical data for both lead programs are expected in Q1 2027. Nodelman highlighted the growing interest and M&A activity in radiotherapies within the pharma sector, totaling $15 billion in recent years. He identified a competitive moat as radiopharmaceuticals are difficult to replicate and off-limits to China due to the nature of radioisotopes. The company's potential valuation, if one program succeeds, could reach $10 billion or $200 per share.
GeoNet: Decentralizing precision geolocation for the AI era
Kyle Samani from Multicoin Capital pitched GeoNet (GEOD), a decentralized network aiming to provide high-precision geolocation services. Unlike GPS, which offers 2-meter accuracy, GeoNet uses Real-Time Kinematics (RTK) for centimeter-level precision. Founded in 2021, GeoNet has rapidly deployed over 22,000 base stations globally, covering 80% of the world's population, significantly outscaling established players like Trimble and Hexagon. The network's growth is fueled by a decentralized crypto model where individuals and businesses deploy base stations and earn 'geode' tokens. Key use cases include agriculture (subsidized by the USDA), autonomous vehicles (TomTom is a customer), robotics (e.g., robotic mules, John Deere's spraying systems), and drones (DJI is a customer). Samani highlighted GeoNet's capital efficiency, with 80% of its $1 million+ annualized revenue used for open market token buybacks. He described it as a "revenue share token" with strong network effects, predicting it will become a natural monopoly. The company is US-based, not a shell corporation, and has raised venture capital, with Multicoin previously leading a round. The fully diluted market cap is around $150 million.
The "Best Ideas" format and investor takeaways
Chamath Palihapitiya explained the "Best Ideas" pitch competition format, inspired by the Ira Sohn Investment Conference, aiming to showcase high-conviction trades from managers who generate significant returns for their limited partners. The event featured four investors presenting their top picks: Aaron Cowen (MGM Resorts), Dan Dreyfus (Talen Energy), Oleg Nodelman (Actis Oncology), and Kyle Samani (GeoNet). The investors provided detailed rationales, financial projections, and risk assessments for their chosen assets. The format concluded with the "Besties" (the show's hosts) and the audience voting on the most compelling pitches. Ultimately, Dan Dreyfus's pitch for Talen Energy won the audience vote, while Aaron Cowen's MGM Resorts pitch secured the "Besties" award, indicating a split decision between the professional and public sentiment.
Future of Longevity and Technological Disruption
The discussion touched on broader themes, including the potential for AI to unlock revolutionary therapies and extend human lifespan, with one investor suggesting the average lifespan in developed countries could well exceed 100-125 years, citing GLP-1 drugs as an early example of pharmaceuticals directly impacting longevity. Questions also arose regarding the potential for space-based solutions (like microgravity) to impact cancer treatment and whether AI could disrupt precision radiotherapy. While these were acknowledged, the focus remained on the immediate investment theses. An interesting point regarding Actis's moat was the difficulty for China to replicate radiotherapies due to the complex manufacturing and sourcing of radioisotopes, a factor that could provide a lasting competitive advantage.
Mentioned in This Episode
●Software & Apps
●Companies
●Organizations
●People Referenced
Common Questions
The competition aimed to recreate the spirit of the original 'Iris' event, giving a platform to talented managers who make great investment picks and generate profits for their limited partners, but might not receive wide distribution.
Topics
Mentioned in this video
The speaker mentions making a bet on Tesla's converts in 2016.
An asset previously owned by Barry Diller's interests.
Provided a $100 million order to backstop Actis Oncology's IPO and is known for weight loss drugs.
A pharmaceutical company building radiotherapy capabilities and interested in acquiring radiotherapy assets.
Kyle Samani's prior firm, which he founded and led investments in Solana. They also previously invested in Geonet.
A supplier to most autonomous vehicle programs globally and a customer of Geonet, using its data to update maps for accuracy.
A past investment where the speaker followed Sam Zell's advice, buying at a discount to replacement value and selling at the peak.
One of the established companies that has been building RTK networks for 20-30 years.
A $4 billion firm in New York run by the speaker.
A pharmaceutical company building radiotherapy capabilities and interested in acquiring radiotherapy assets.
A company with a new drug for pancreatic cancer, mentioned as a targeted therapy.
One of the established companies that has been building RTK networks for 20-30 years.
Mentioned as a trillion-dollar company that the speaker correctly predicted in 2015, despite being laughed at.
A company that makes robotic mules used for transporting items on farms, powered by Geonet.
The speaker regrets not picking NVIDIA in 2017, stating it would have made them an 'Irish legend'.
A San Francisco-based fund that invests in misunderstood biotech companies.
Pitched as an investment due to its Vegas assets, Japanese casino license, and potential Dubai development. The pitch highlights MGM's aggressive stock buybacks and a bid from Barry Diller.
Mentioned as having left Dubai waiting for a license, raising a question about why MGM's situation might be different.
A power producer with nuclear and natural gas assets, pitched as an undervalued investment due to high demand for power driven by AI and infrastructure needs.
A San Francisco-based fund founded by Oleg Nelman, specializing in value-oriented biotech investments.
A biotech company focused on radiopharmaceuticals, with a billion-dollar market cap and significant cash reserves. Its platform targets Nectin 4 and B7H3, with early clinical data expected soon.
One of the established companies that has been building RTK networks for 20-30 years.
A customer of Geonet, rolling out Global Unmanned Spraying Systems (Gus) and using Geonet for precise navigation. They also make their own RTK systems.
A manufacturer of robotic lawnmowers powered by Geonet.
Owns the 3 Mile Island nuclear reactor and was incentivized by Microsoft to restart it to supply power for data centers.
A pharmaceutical company building radiotherapy capabilities and interested in acquiring radiotherapy assets.
Mentioned in the context of a Supreme Court case about patents, specifically regarding 'composition of matter' patents and China's ability to replicate biologics by making minor changes.
The world's largest drone manufacturer and a customer of Geonet, incorporating its technology into many models.
A manufacturer of robotic lawnmowers powered by Geonet.
Aggressively acquiring MGM stock, now owning 26% and having made a bid. He is identified as a legendary figure in media and now casinos, and his actions suggest a financial rather than strategic motivation.
Quoted as saying that a thousand times more power is needed, highlighting the immense demand driven by AI.
An investor whose advice about buying assets below replacement cost for future needs influenced the speaker's strategy.
The speaker previously ran the equities business for Soros's firm.
A friend of the speaker who incorrectly disagreed about Amazon's potential to be a trillion-dollar company.
The speaker served as CIO for Steve Cohen's firm.
Presents Geonet, a crypto asset focused on AI infrastructure, and discusses its potential and growth.
The CEO of the US-based corporation behind Geonet, with experience in the IoT and smart device space.
Pitched Talon Energy and was voted number one by the audience and second place by the 'besties'.
Pitched MGM Resorts and was voted number two by the audience and first place by the 'besties'.
Mentioned twice: once as someone whose appreciation was considered in the pitch preparation, and again as someone who seeded Multicoin Capital.
Asked a detailed question about terminal multiples for Talon Energy, which the presenter found excellent.
Mentioned as a platform where managers often appear, implying the Best Ideas Pitch event offers an alternative way to discover them.
Launched a program to encourage farmers to use precise technologies, including RTK networks, and is subsidizing adoption.
A foundation created by the family of a gentleman who passed away from cancer, which hosts the Best Ideas Pitch event.
A grid region in the US (Pennsylvania, Jersey, Maryland) that forecasts a need for 106 gigawatts of new power in the next 10 years.
MGM is building a property complex here, which includes space for a potential casino if gambling is legalized.
Has significantly increased its power generation capacity over the last 20 years, serving as a model for the US.
A major gaming market in Asia, compared to Osaka's potential and discussed as having issues for investors.
The only prefecture in Japan that voted to permit a casino, which MGM has a license to open.
Mentioned as a city whose residents would find Osaka a convenient gambling destination due to its proximity.
Mentioned as a major gaming option in Asia, compared to Osaka's proximity for Chinese gamblers.
Nuclear reactor whose meltdown impacted public perception of nuclear power; restarted by Constellation Energy, driven by Microsoft's demand for data center power.
Mentioned as a city whose residents would find Osaka a convenient gambling destination due to its proximity.
A location near Dubai where Wynn is set to open a casino, potentially drawing gamblers from Dubai.
Associated with the 3 Mile Island reactor's restart to power data centers.
A blockchain network where Multicoin Capital led investment rounds, and where Geonet tokens trade.
A decentralized network using RTK technology for precise geolocalization, aiming to build the infrastructure for AI. Largest and fastest-growing RTK network, with over 22,000 nodes globally.
The ticker symbol for Geonet tokens, which trade on the Solana blockchain.
A decentralized network for 5G signal, similar to Geonet's model for RTK. Kyle Samani previously invested in Helium and remains a believer.
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