Key Moments
Why Republicans Really Lost the Midterms
Sam HarrisKey Moments
Republicans lost the midterms not due to foreign policy missteps, but because of Trump's anti-Semitic rhetoric and corrupt entanglements, which alienate even core MAGA voters.
Key Insights
Jonah Goldberg suggests that Donald Trump's influence is waning, with even Rupert Murdoch reportedly viewing him as a "spent force" and having no desire to revisit the Dominion lawsuit.
Sam Harris argues that the decentralized nature of US elections makes widespread voter fraud virtually impossible, likening the idea of centrally orchestrated fraud to a "ridiculous notion."
Goldberg posits that the "Make America Great Again" (MAGA) base constitutes roughly 30-35% of the electorate, with about 26-28% being intensely loyal, though not all are necessarily "zealots."
J.D. Vance's explanation for the Republican midterm losses, which blamed a focus on the Iran war and a supposed shift of MAGA voters to Democrats (around 7% according to polls), is challenged as lacking data and misinterpreting voter motivations.
Corruption was a critical issue for 55% of voters in a Fox News poll, yet J.D. Vance's "autopsy" of the Republican defeat entirely omitted this factor, despite his role in the Trump administration's anti-corruption efforts.
DeSantis is presented as a "completely clean" candidate for 2028, having maintained a critical distance from the MAGA brand, and potentially offering a more competent, less corrupt version of Trumpism.
The Trump factor: A waning force?
The conversation opens by touching upon Donald Trump's recent "60 Minutes" interview, which is lauded for the interviewer's adept handling of Trump's evasiveness. However, the broader implication is that Trump's influence may be diminishing. Jonah Goldberg suggests that figures like Rupert Murdoch no longer see Trump as a viable political force, viewing him as a "spent force" whose best days are behind him. This perspective is contrasted with Trump's potential inclination to continue his rhetoric, even as his political power wanes. While Trump may increasingly engage in "West Wing-style videos of his downfall," Goldberg believes this will have little impact where it truly matters. The discussion also briefly addresses the absurdity of election fraud claims, with Harris highlighting the decentralized nature of US elections as a practical barrier to large-scale manipulation. He dismisses claims of coordinated fraud as "ridiculous," emphasizing that local election officials and differing ballot designs across precincts make such schemes nearly impossible to execute undetected.
The core MAGA base: Size and characteristics
Goldberg estimates that the most fervent "Make America Great Again" (MAGA) supporters, those who exhibit an almost unshakeable loyalty to Trump, constitute a significant but not overwhelming portion of the electorate. He places this core group in the "low thirties" as a percentage of the overall electorate, refining this to approximately 26% to 28%. However, he cautions against labeling all of them as "zealots," suggesting that many are simply highly polarized, defensive of their choices, and driven by strong anti-leftist, anti-mainstream media, and anti-establishment sentiments. These individuals may not openly express negative feelings toward Trump to pollsters but are demonstrably aligned with his movement. Goldberg believes this base has a "limited shelf life," implying that its ability to drive electoral success may be diminishing.
J.D. Vance's controversial "autopsy" and its flaws
A significant portion of the discussion focuses on J.D. Vance's explanation for the Republican party's midterm election losses. Vance's argument, which he reportedly detailed in a 617-word "autopsy," centered on the idea that the war in Iran and related issues, alongside "America First" policies and economic concerns, were the primary drivers of voter sentiment. He suggested that a significant number of Trump's former voters (around 7% according to some polls) defected to the Democrats. Goldberg and Harris vehemently disagree with Vance's analysis, deeming it deeply flawed and, in parts, anti-Semitic. They argue that Vance's narrative ignores crucial factors like corruption, which a Fox News poll indicated was a deciding issue for 55% of voters. Furthermore, they contend that Vance's focus on foreign policy, particularly Iran, is a disingenuous attempt to reframe the losses, as many who now champion an anti-war stance under Vance's banner previously supported Trump's more interventionist policies or showed no principled opposition to other potential military actions. The argument that voters were primarily motivated by opposition to the Iran war is dismissed as an intellectually dishonest simplification, particularly when contrasted with Trump's stated desire to replicate the "Venezuela model" of intervention.
Foreign policy as a scapegoat: The anti-Semitism critique
The critique of J.D. Vance's "autopsy" extends to its alleged anti-Semitic underpinnings. Goldberg argues that Vance's narrative, which implies that Israel's influence or "Zionist warmongers" manipulated the US into the Iran conflict, is objectively anti-Semitic. While acknowledging that not everyone espousing this view may be a hater of Jews, he asserts that the argument singles out Israel, treating it differently from other foreign policy considerations. This selective outrage, Goldberg points out, stands in stark contrast to the lack of opposition from these same individuals to Trump's threats regarding Greenland or his attempts to pressure Canada. The sudden embrace of isolationism solely concerning Iran is seen as a performative consistency, applied only when it serves a narrative about Israeli influence on US policy. This selective application of principles, Goldberg contends, makes Vance's argument unconvincing and rooted in a biased worldview rather than genuine ideological consistency.
The real reasons for the Republican defeat
Harris and Goldberg propose alternative explanations for the Republican midterm losses, contrasting them sharply with Vance's analysis. They emphasize that the key factor was not a shift in foreign policy sentiment among MAGA voters, but rather strong Democratic turnout, particularly among those who had previously stayed home. Independent voters also leaned heavily against Trump. The idea that Vance's narrative about a 7% defection of Trump voters is the primary cause is debunked by poll data showing minimal crossover. Instead, the argument is made that the consequences of war, coupled with rising fuel prices and high tariffs—factors conveniently downplayed or omitted in Vance's analysis—played a more significant role. Vance's attempt to correlate Trump's declining poll numbers solely with the start of the Iran war is also challenged, with evidence suggesting the decline began earlier with the "Day One" tariffs and was exacerbated by the Iran war and subsequent mismanagement leading to price hikes. The complete neglect of corruption as a voter concern is highlighted as a major oversight in Vance's autopsy.
Corruption and the "competent MAGA" fallacy
The discussion underscores the significant role of corruption as a voter concern, noting that 55% of respondents in a Fox News poll considered it a decisive issue. The fact that J.D. Vance, who was appointed by Trump to oversee anti-corruption efforts, completely ignored this in his analysis is seen as particularly telling. Goldberg points out the irony, given Vance's background and the Trump administration's actions, such as dismissing inspectors general. This oversight, coupled with Vance's focus on issues like Somali-American corruption in Minnesota while ignoring perceived cronyism within the MAGA movement itself (like Don Jr.'s wedding funded by a Russian oligarch), suggests a selective concern for corruption. The broader implication is that the push for a "competent MAGA" – as potentially embodied by Vance or DeSantis – is flawed because it fails to address the fundamental issues of corruption and potentially divisive rhetoric that alienates voters.
The 2028 field and DeSantis's strategic position
Looking ahead to the 2028 presidential election, the conversation analyzes the potential impact of the midterm results on Republican contenders. J.D. Vance is seen as a significant loser, his "autopsy" failing to resonate and potentially damaging his future prospects. However, a scenario is presented where, if the Republican party faces a complete collapse in 2028, Vance might inherit the nomination by default if no other viable candidate emerges. Ron DeSantis, on the other hand, is positioned as a potentially strong contender. His ability to credibly claim he was not part of the recent Republican failures, coupled with his strategic distance from the more extreme elements of MAGA, makes him a "completely clean" candidate. While Vance and DeSantis may share a belief that the Republican party is now permanently MAGA and that voters desire a more competent version of it, DeSantis appears better positioned to capitalize on this perceived demand without the baggage of Trump's direct association or the divisive rhetoric associated with the movement.
MAGA as a personality cult and the limits of political gravity
The discussion concludes by reflecting on the nature of MAGA as a personality cult centered around Donald Trump. Harris suggests that political analysts, including himself, previously underestimated Trump's ability to defy traditional political gravity due to his unique connection with entertainment and celebrity culture. The idea that Trump was immune to the usual political consequences was a miscalculation. This realization is tied to the broader concern about anti-Semitism on the right, with Goldberg expressing disappointment that figures like J.D. Vance do not more forcefully condemn anti-Semitic or racist remarks within the movement. The underlying issue, they argue, is that MAGA is fundamentally about Trump himself, making it difficult to replicate or transfer that loyalty to another figure like Vance, who attempts to embody a "Trumpism with half the bigotry and twice the competence." The conversation highlights the struggle to move beyond the core appeal of Trump and address more substantive policy issues and ethical concerns that resonate with a broader electorate.
Mentioned in This Episode
●Software & Apps
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●Studies Cited
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Common Questions
The video suggests several reasons, including Donald Trump's declining influence, the inability of certain narratives like election fraud to gain traction, and the Republican party's failure to address key voter concerns such as corruption and the economic impact of foreign policy decisions.
Topics
Mentioned in this video
Mentioned in the context of a lawsuit that Robert Murdoch does not want to revisit.
One of the news outlets mentioned in the context of potentially amplifying election fraud claims.
One of the news outlets mentioned in the context of potentially amplifying election fraud claims.
Mentioned as the platform where a New York Times piece about Vance's narrative was shared.
Discussed as a declining political force whose utility has expired, and whose claims of election fraud are being re-examined.
His argument that the war in Iran was the reason for Republican losses is discussed and heavily critiqued.
The interviewer for the Trump 60 Minutes segment, praised for his handling of the interview.
Mentioned as having conducted a previously great interview with Trump.
Mentioned for a past outlandish claim about North Korea shipping fake votes.
Mentioned as someone many people who stayed home previously came out to vote for.
Cited as an example of someone making the intellectual argument that voters were against the war, not just gas prices.
Associated with the Heritage Foundation, mentioned for celebrating the war when it began.
His wing of the right is mentioned in the context of trying to create a narrative favorable to Vance.
Mentioned as a hawk who was blamed for reigniting the war in Vance's narrative.
Discussed as a potential 2028 candidate who can credibly claim not to be part of the recent Republican failures.
Mentioned as hinting at a potential run for the 2028 presidency.
Mentioned as an example of Trump's past controversial statements that were underestimated.
Mentioned as unlikely to significantly amplify election fraud claims due to business interests.
Poll results from this organization are cited regarding Trump voter shifts.
Published a piece related to Vance's narrative that was shared on TikTok.
Kevin Roberts is associated with this organization, which is mentioned for celebrating the war.
The relationship with Israel is discussed as a potential factor in Republican losses, with Vance's argument being criticized as anti-Semitic.
The war in Iran is presented as a key argument by J.D. Vance for Republican losses, a claim that is heavily debated and critiqued.
Mentioned as a previous foreign policy operation by Trump that informed his approach to Iran.
Mentioned as a place Trump threatened to use force to take over, contrasted with the selective principled stance on Iran.
Mentioned as a country Trump attempted to force into becoming a state, contrasted with the selective principled stance on Iran.
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