Key Moments

E156: Ivy League antisemitism, macro, SaaS recovery, Gemini, Figma deal delay + big Friedberg update

All-In PodcastAll-In Podcast
People & Blogs5 min read93 min video
Dec 8, 2023|358,544 views|6,136|645
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TL;DR

Discussions on Ivy League antisemitism, economic tribalism, SaaS recovery, Google's Gemini, and Adobe-Figma deal concerns.

Key Insights

1

The response to Ivy League antisemitism hearings revealed a perceived bias based on woke identity politics, where Jewish students are positioned as an 'oppressor group'.

2

Economic sentiment is heavily influenced by political affiliation (tribalism), with individuals' feelings about the economy not always aligning with economic data.

3

There are signs of stabilization and potential recovery in the SaaS market after a period of 'software recession,' though valuation resets are expected.

4

Google's Gemini AI represents a significant advancement, potentially leapfrogging competitors, but its long-term dominance and monetization strategy remain uncertain.

5

The Adobe-Figma acquisition faces significant regulatory hurdles, with concerns raised about the UK CMA's prolonged review and novel antitrust rationale.

6

A shortage of experienced leadership talent willing to take on high-risk, capital-intensive technological ventures is a key challenge in Silicon Valley.

IVY LEAGUE ANTISEMITISM HEARINGS AND IDENTITY POLITICS

The podcast opens with a discussion on the Congressional hearings concerning antisemitism at Ivy League universities. The presidents' perceived equivocation on whether advocating for genocide violates conduct codes sparked significant controversy. Sachs argues this response stems from a 'woke identity politics' framework, which categorizes groups as 'oppressor' or 'victim,' placing Jewish people into the former, thus diminishing protections against antisemitism. This perception frustrates donors and highlights a disconnect between university policies and moral clarity.

ECONOMIC SENTIMENT AND POLITICAL TRIBALISM

A significant portion of the discussion centers on how political affiliation, or 'tribalism,' distorts people's perception of the economy. Data suggests that individuals' economic sentiment often aligns more with their political party than with objective economic indicators. This is further exacerbated by inflation, where rising prices have outpaced wage growth for many, leading to a feeling of being worse off, despite some positive macroeconomic data.

THE STATE OF THE CONSUMER AND ECONOMIC DATA INTERPRETATION

Despite concerns like rising credit card debt and 401(k) hardship withdrawals, some economic data, such as wealth growth and strong employment figures, points to a relatively robust economy. However, the panel emphasizes the 'sticker shock' from inflation and the gap between this data and the average person's lived experience. The media's role in amplifying emotional responses over factual data is also critiqued.

SAAS MARKET RECOVERY AND VENTURE CAPITAL DYNAMICS

The SaaS market is showing signs of recovery, with recent data indicating a return to positive net new ARR growth after a period often described as a 'software recession.' This rebound follows a significant valuation correction for SaaS companies. However, the panel anticipates that while growth may return, public market valuations might not return to previous highs, impacting the exit opportunities for venture-backed companies.

LEADERSHIP VACUUM AND THE CHALLENGE OF RISK CAPITAL

David Friedberg's decision to become CEO of Ohalo, a gene-editing agriculture company, highlights a perceived dearth of experienced leadership willing to undertake high-risk, capital-intensive ventures. The discussion posits that a flood of capital and a focus on easier, software-based returns have led to a fragmentation of talent. The critical need is for individuals with the capability and willingness to navigate complex technological challenges, rather than just pursuing lower-risk opportunities.

GOOGLE'S GEMINI AI AND THE FUTURE OF ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE

Google's launch of Gemini is presented as a major development in the AI race, potentially offering significant performance advantages over competitors like OpenAI's GPT-4. The multimodality of Gemini, allowing it to process images, video, and text, is highlighted. While its technical prowess is acknowledged, questions remain about Google's ability to maintain dominance in AI and effectively monetize AI-driven search queries, contrasting with its historical search dominance.

ADOBE'S FIGMA ACQUISITION STALL AND REGULATORY CONCERNS

The proposed $20 billion acquisition of Figma by Adobe is currently blocked by the UK's Competition and Markets Authority (CMA). The panel criticizes the lengthy review process and the CMA's reasoning, which they deem speculative and based on potential future competition rather than current market share. Concerns are raised about the UK regulator's outsized influence and the chilling effect such protracted reviews have on M&A activity, especially for startups seeking exits. The argument is made that antitrust decisions should be more objective and time-bound.

THE SHIFTING POLITICAL LANDSCAPE FOR JEWISH VOTERS

A recurring theme is the potential political realignment of Jewish voters. Historically aligned with the Democratic party, many Jews are reportedly reassessing their positions due to the perceived changes in the left's embrace of identity politics. The argument is made that this shift could lead to a greater migration towards the Republican party, as a growing number of Jewish individuals feel alienated by the current trajectory of progressive ideologies.

ASSESSING THE HEALTH OF THE STARTUP ECOSYSTEM

The podcast touches upon the overfunding during the 'zero bubble' era, leading to a fragmentation of talent and the funding of less promising ideas. While the number of funded companies has decreased, the quality and concentration of talent in current early-stage startups are seen as high. This period is viewed as potentially the best 'vintage' for venture investment due to available talent and more realistic valuations, provided companies can navigate regulatory complexities.

VALUATION REALITIES IN THE PRIVATE EQUITY MARKET

The discussion delves into private equity valuations, noting that premiums for even large ARR companies are typically in the three to five times range, with many transactions occurring between one and three times ARR. This is attributed to the need for a margin of safety, as many businesses have not yet proven their ability to generate consistent cash flow. These lower multiples from PE buyers suggest that public market valuations may also face pressure, impacting startup exit strategies.

US Household Wealth Distribution (Federal Reserve Data)

Data extracted from this episode

Household TypePercentage of US FamiliesKey Metric
Millionaire Households12%Achieving American Dream
Multi-millionaire Households8%Growing Wealth
Families earning $150k-$250k/yearN/ACrushing it, making more than top 10%

Public SaaS Company Valuations & Growth (Altimeter Capital Data)

Data extracted from this episode

Time PeriodNet New ARR Growth RateValuation Multiple (vs. Next 12 Months Revenue)10-Year Treasury Yield
Mid 2022 - Mid 2023Negative (Shrinking)N/AN/A
Q3 20232% (Positive)N/AN/A
Pre-COVID AverageN/A7.8xN/A
December 1st (Current)N/A5.8x4.3%
Peak (Recent)N/AN/A5%

Common Questions

Panelists suggested the presidents were caught between free speech doctrines they don't consistently apply and a 'woke identity politics' framework. This framework often categorizes Jews as an 'oppressor group,' leading to a perceived double standard where explicit antisemitism is not recognized in the same way as other forms of discrimination.

Topics

Mentioned in this video

Companies
Affirm

A buy-now-pay-later company whose stock surged, reflecting confidence in strong Christmas spending.

OpenAI

The company behind ChatGPT and GPT-4, mentioned as having new models coming to market that will compete with Gemini.

Figma

A product design software company whose $20 billion acquisition by Adobe is stalled due to UK regulatory concerns regarding innovation and competition.

Carta

A company providing data on the startup ecosystem, indicating a significant increase in companies shutting down after raising substantial capital.

Activision Blizzard

Its protracted acquisition by Microsoft was cited as an example of how lengthy regulatory reviews harm capital markets.

Facebook

Mentioned as an example of a company that built a core of young talent by recruiting from Google and grooming from within, highlighting a talent concentration model.

The Production Board

David Friedberg's firm, which incubated a gene editing business that he is now taking over as CEO.

YouTube

Highlighted as the richest digital data repository on Earth, giving Google an extraordinary advantage in training AI models, especially for imaging and video.

Microsoft

Mentioned in the context of the protracted Activision acquisition and its General Counsel Brad Smith's skill in navigating regulatory hurdles for mergers.

Instagram

Implicitly mentioned through 'Uber drivers', 'Google', and 'Airbnb' as companies where high-quality talent has emerged and is now forming new startups at reasonable prices.

Harvard Management Company

Discussed as a massive asset management business that at one point was one of the largest owners of forestry in America, indicating a shift in university priorities.

DeepMind

Google's AI research lab, which collaborated with Google Research on the Gemini project, marking a significant internal organizational effort.

Uber

Mentioned as an example of a company where driver wages have increased significantly, illustrating broader wage growth trends.

OpenView Partners

A VC firm from Boston that abruptly shut down despite having raised a large fund and seemingly good companies in its portfolio, illustrating the tough market conditions.

Google

Discussed in relation to its recent Gemini AI launch, its market position in search versus AI, and its internal talent and organizational structure.

Spotify

Mentioned for conducting a third round of layoffs (17% of employees), illustrating public firms being rewarded for downsizing.

Adobe

$20 billion acquisition of Figma is stalled due to regulatory concerns in the UK. The company also had a competitive product (XD) that failed and was shut down.

NVIDIA

Criticized for trying to create a walled garden with CUDA and its H100/A100 chips, which are facing year-long waiting lists, thus hindering the growth of the AI economy.

Salesforce

Mentioned as an example of an early public SaaS company, suggesting that historical valuation data should include such firms from earlier periods.

Altimeter Capital

A firm whose data on public SaaS companies (specifically Annual Recurring Revenue, ARR) was referenced to show a rebound in Q3 2023, signaling an end to the software recession.

Software & Apps
Adobe XD

Adobe's competitive product to Figma for web design, which was shut down by Adobe, removing it from the market.

ChatGPT

Google's Gemini AI is referred to as a 'ChatGPT killer,' highlighting the competitive landscape of large language models.

GPT-5

OpenAI's upcoming AI model, mentioned in the context of the proliferation and commoditization of foundational models.

Photoshop

Adobe's marketing design product, which CMA argues Figma could potentially compete with in the future, despite current distinct markets.

Bigtable

Google's compressed, high-performance, proprietary data storage system, part of Jeff Dean's notable technical contributions.

MapReduce

A programming model and algorithm for processing large data sets, part of Jeff Dean's notable technical contributions.

AWS

Mentioned as an example of an infrastructure provider that, along with Azure and GCP, will profit from the commoditization of foundational AI models and hardware.

Google Shopping

An example of a Google AI integration that, despite being 1.0, suggests a future where AI greatly increases the number of user queries/interactions and improves ad targeting.

Google Flights

An example of a Google AI integration that, despite being 1.0, suggests a future where AI greatly increases the number of user queries/interactions.

Spanner

Google's globally-distributed and consistently replicated database, part of Jeff Dean's notable technical contributions.

Bitcoin

Its recent rally to $44,000 was highlighted as an example of market euphoria driven by interest rate cut expectations.

LLaMA 2

A foundational model from Abu Dhabi's government, mentioned for its amazing advances and contribution to the commoditization of foundational models.

CUDA

NVIDIA's proprietary parallel computing platform, criticized for creating a walled garden that stifles innovation and commoditization in AI.

Gemini

Google's new multimodal AI model, showcased with impressive demos and benchmark results against GPT-4, available in Ultra, Pro, and Nano flavors.

TensorFlow

Google's open-source machine learning framework, part of Jeff Dean's notable technical contributions.

Microsoft / Azure

Mentioned as an example of an infrastructure provider that, along with AWS and GCP, will profit from the commoditization of foundational AI models and hardware.

GPT-4

OpenAI's previous leading AI model, which Gemini claimed to outperform in 30 out of 32 benchmarks.

People
Ronald Reagan

Mentioned for his famous question to voters in 1980 ('Are you better off than you were four years ago?'), which is still relevant for assessing economic sentiment.

Jud Ward

The CTO and co-founder of David Friedberg's new gene-editing business, who came up with novel ideas for using gene editing in agriculture.

Brad Gerstner

A friend mentioned for his point about Google's AI not achieving the same dominance as its search franchise, posing a challenge for monetization.

Donald Trump

Mentioned in the context of political tribalism affecting economic sentiment, where Democrats negatively viewed the economy during his presidency.

Kobe Letter

Credited for a tweet about the mixed economic signals present in the current climate.

Lena Khan

Antitrust advocate who a panelist expresses a desire to invite onto the podcast for a discussion on competition policy.

Bill Ackman

Credited with perfectly timing the recent bond market rally, leading the trade by going long on bonds about a month prior.

Martin Luther King Jr.

His quote about judging people by the content of their character, not by the color of their skin, was invoked to contrast with modern identity politics.

George Church

A scientist mentioned as a potential discoverer of gene editing, alongside Jennifer Doudna.

Jared Kushner

Mentioned as a previous guest who also wasn't significantly pushed back on politically, fitting the podcast's approach to guests.

Jennifer Doudna

A scientist mentioned as a potential discoverer of gene editing, along with George Church, for her work at Berkeley.

Jeff Dean

The most important person in charge of Google's AI projects, described as a preeminent technical light and an 'absolute animal' for his work on TensorFlow, MapReduce, BigTable, and Spanner.

Mark Zuckerberg

His strategy to block news links in Australia and Canada due to government overreach was invoked as a potential countermeasure for Adobe/Figma against the CMA's decision.

Claudine Gay

The president of Harvard University who faced repeated questions about whether chants advocating for genocide violated Harvard's code of conduct.

Joe Biden

Mentioned in the context of political tribalism affecting economic sentiment, where Republicans negatively viewed the economy during his presidency.

Brad Smith

Microsoft's General Counsel, admired for his "political genius" and ability to successfully navigate deals through regulatory scrutiny, citing examples like Nuance, Mojang, GitHub, LinkedIn, and Activision.

Ben Shapiro

Cited as an example of a controversial speaker who has been chased off campus at various schools, highlighting the perceived hypocrisy of free speech standards.

Tucker Carlson

A conservative political commentator whose recent interview was discussed as intellectually interesting despite potential disagreement with his views.

John Malone

Mentioned as a 'rapacious capitalist' and a large owner of forestry in America, parallel to Harvard Management Company.

Benjamin Netanyahu

Mentioned as someone whose government's actions in Gaza can be criticized without being labeled antisemitic, emphasizing the distinction between political criticism and hate speech.

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