Tyler Cowen on "The Portal", Ep. #016 (w/ Eric Weinstein) - The Revolution Will Not Be Marginalized.
The PortalKey Moments
Discussion on existential risks, societal stagnation, the nature of progress, and the role of economics, with a focus on nuanced perspectives.
Key Insights
An infinite time horizon could stifle rational decision-making about the future by overemphasizing risk minimization.
The decreasing cost of destructive technology does not necessarily correlate with falling actual violence, highlighting a complex understanding of risk and choice.
"Strategic silence" in media coverage of attacks, while intended to reduce attacker leverage, might inadvertently induce innovation in destructive methods.
The internet has created a new public square, necessitating a re-evaluation of private platforms' roles and responsibilities in content moderation.
Economic theory offers valuable tools for societal analysis, but faces challenges in addressing its own internal political economy and potential biases.
The feminization of society, while potentially positive on net, has complex effects on economic growth, social structures, and individual well-being.
Distinguishing between artistic/intellectual contributions and personal morality is crucial for evaluating creators, though this is a complex and often inconsistent process.
The debate over 'canceling' historical figures or artists with problematic associations reveals deep societal conflicts about past and present, forgiveness, and the nature of artistic merit.
THE APOCALYPSE AND EXISTENTIAL RISK
The conversation begins by framing the concept of the apocalypse not as an immediate threat, but as a potential constraint on rational decision-making. An infinite time horizon for civilization might lead to paralysis by overemphasizing risk minimization, while a finite, albeit distant, horizon could encourage grander achievements. This perspective highlights how our perception of time influences our actions and priorities today.
OPTIMISM VS. REALITY OF VIOLENCE
Steven Pinker's optimism about decreasing violence is challenged by the argument that while actual violence may be declining, the potential for it is growing due to falling costs of destructive technology. The discussion explores the mystery of why widespread destructive acts, despite falling barriers, haven't materialized more frequently, suggesting a complex interplay of choice, psychology, and social factors that social science has yet to fully grasp.
THE STRATEGIC ROLE OF MEDIA AND INFORMATION
The concept of 'strategic silence' in media reporting is explored as a method to deny attackers leverage by withholding their motives or names. However, concerns are raised that this tactic might backfire, potentially inducing attackers to innovate new methods to gain attention. This highlights the delicate balance between responsible reporting and the unintended consequences of information control in the internet age.
THE INTERNET AS A NEW PUBLIC SPACE
The discussion shifts to the internet, where the lack of true public spaces necessitates a critical examination of private platforms. It's argued that since the internet is essentially composed of private entities, stricter rules are needed regarding content and speech. The complexity of self-regulation by platforms and the challenges of Congressional oversight are also addressed.
THE POLITICAL ECONOMY OF ECONOMICS
The conversation delves into the field of economics itself, questioning its internal dynamics and potential biases. Economists are criticized for over-specializing and producing narrow papers, and for potentially flattering existing institutions. The difficulty in criticizing the National Science Foundation is noted, suggesting a potential blind spot within the profession regarding its own funding and institutional influence.
THE CHICAGO SCHOOL AND ITS LEGACY
The historical context of the Chicago School of Economics is presented, suggesting it served as a bulwark against communism rather than purely an analytical framework. While acknowledging its influence, the discussion points out that some of its predictions, like the ease of educational vouchers, did not fully materialize, highlighting the limitations of economic theories when applied to complex real-world scenarios.
CONSUMER PRICE INDEX AND ACADEMIC MALPRACTICE
A specific case of potential academic malpractice regarding the Consumer Price Index (CPI) is detailed, where a commission allegedly targeted a specific overstatement to justify tax increases and benefit cuts. This illustrates how policy goals can influence research methods, raising questions about objective economic analysis and the integrity of data interpretation.
GAUGE THEORY AND ECONOMIC MEASUREMENT
The conversation touches on the application of gauge theory in economics, suggesting its potential to revolutionize how we understand inflation and utility. The idea is that current economic models may be measuring the wrong objects, akin to mistaking a single temperature reading for a complex weather field. This abstract concept hints at deeper, more complex ways to model economic phenomena.
THE SLOWDOWN IN ECONOMIC GROWTH AND FEMINIZATION
A significant portion of the discussion focuses on the post-1973 slowdown in economic growth. While oil prices are acknowledged, a crucial missing variable proposed is the increasing feminization of society. This is presented not as a negative, but as a societal shift with profound, complex economic consequences, including changes in risk aversion, regulation, and social structures.
GENDER, ECONOMICS, AND SOCIETAL CHANGE
The societal impact of feminization is further explored, acknowledging its net positive aspects while recognizing potential downsides for certain demographics, particularly lower-status men. The discussion highlights how differing risk tolerances, evolving gender roles, and the potential for increased stress on women balancing careers and family life are all significant factors within this evolving societal landscape.
THE CHALLENGE OF DISCRIMINATION AND MERITOCRACY
The complexities of gender discrimination in labor markets are discussed, with an emphasis on objective evidence over simplistic wage gap figures. The potential for academic tenure systems to inadvertently disadvantage women is raised, alongside the idea that addressing discrimination might be driven by economic 'greed' (unlocking untapped potential) rather than solely by obligation or altruism.
THE PROBLEM OF CONFLICT AND NORMS IN ACADEMIA
The conversation touches on the competitive and sometimes exclusionary norms within academia, particularly in economics. The difficulty for new ideas, especially those presented by individuals who may not fit traditional molds (e.g., women, those from developing countries), to gain traction is highlighted as a systemic issue.
HETERODOXY AND THE INTERNET'S INFLUENCE
The role of the internet in fostering 'heterodox' thinkers is examined. While online platforms have democratized idea dissemination, the lines between orthodox and heterodox are blurring. The influence of figures like Peter Thiel and Patrick Collison, who navigate both traditional structures and the internet, is discussed, alongside the concept of 'distributed idea suppression'.
ARTISTIC CONTRIBUTION VS. PERSONAL MORALITY
A significant segment is dedicated to the complex issue of separating an artist's work from their personal actions. Debates around figures like Charles Manson, John Lennon, and the practice of 'canceling' are used to illustrate the societal struggle with this dilemma, questioning whether to acknowledge genius while condemning their personal failings.
THE MUSIC OF LIFE: TASTE, CRITICISM, AND MASTERY
The latter part of the discussion explores music as a case study for taste, judgment, and cultural evolution. From classical composers like Bach and Mozart to modern artists like the Beatles and Jimi Hendrix, the conversation dissects what makes music great, the role of technical skill versus emotional impact, and the subjective nature of aesthetic appreciation across genres.
THE CHALLENGE OF HYPOCRISY AND REHABILITATION
The episode concludes by grappling with societal hypocrisy and the concept of rehabilitation. The tension between incentivizing good behavior and offering second chances is explored, particularly in the context of public figures with problematic histories. The difficulty of applying consistent principles to 'canceling' versus forgiving is acknowledged.
Mentioned in This Episode
●Products
●Software & Apps
●Companies
●Organizations
●Books
●Concepts
●People Referenced
Common Questions
An infinite time horizon can make political decision-making difficult by creating an overwhelming concern for minimizing existential risk, potentially paralyzing action. Conversely, a finite time horizon, like 800 years, can motivate grand and glorious achievements within that perceived limit. Tyler Cowen compares this to a financial 'naked put' option.
Topics
Mentioned in this video
Guitarist, mentioned for his 'wailing music' that Eric Weinstein found evocative.
German composer who made a controversial comment about 9/11 being 'a wonderful work of art'.
A US government agency, criticized by both Eric Weinstein and Alex Tabarrok for allegedly destroying the STEM labor pipeline and for economists' reluctance to critique it.
An international monetary system, mentioned as a proposed explanation for the economic discontinuity around the 1970s.
A set of economic policy prescriptions debated for its overall impact, with arguments both Pro and Con regarding its effectiveness in various countries.
Tyler Cowen's economics blog, co-written with Alex Tabarrok, where he reviewed Steven Pinker's book and expressed his concerns about observational equivalence in data analysis.
Skeptic and author, mentioned as someone who might take on debunking conspiracy theories.
A school of economic thought, debated whether it was a political project against communism or an analytical theory.
Economist who argued that the Washington Consensus has done more good than harm.
Classical composer considered by both Eric Weinstein and Tyler Cowen as a pinnacle of Western music, though even his works have some 'boring' pieces and benefit from selection.
Composer whose work on sound and music influenced Paul McCartney.
An event referenced as a possible turning point for the prevalence of suicide bombing, potentially predating strong links between suicide bombing and Islam.
Harvard professor of economics, linked to the 1.1% overstatement figure from the Boskin Commission.
Cited as an insightful thinker whom Eric Weinstein believes should have her signal boosted for her original contributions.
Author whose book was cited as arguing that economics has 'gone around wrecking things', a view Tyler Cowen largely disagrees with.
Described as an incredibly generative and dangerous (intellectually) mutual friend, whose current theorizing is about 'woke' as a concept.
Musicologist who wrote the book 'Indian Music in Performance', introducing Eric Weinstein to the world of Indian classical music.
Musical group mentioned as an example of a creative dyad (Steven Tyler and Joe Perry) generating incredible music through rivalry.
Tyler Cowen's podcast, where he interviewed Steven Pinker about his theory of optimism and the declining cost of destroying the world.
Colleague of Tyler Cowen, co-author of the Marginal Revolution blog and co-author of a major critique of the National Science Foundation.
Republican pollster who pioneered the use of specific phraseology to manipulate public opinion, surprised by the negative outcomes of political messaging.
Economist who proposed axioms for the perfect price index.
Harmonica player, known for his work on the Rolling Stones' 'Miss You' and his technical prowess, particularly in threading the top register.
Producer for The Beatles, from whom Paul McCartney learned orchestration.
A commission active in the mid-90s that, according to Eric Weinstein, aimed to find an overstatement of the CPI to raise taxes and slash benefits, leading to academic malpractice.
A member of the Boskin Commission who spoke about how the groups arrived at specific numbers for CPI overstatement.
Economist who developed an impossibility theorem for aggregating price indices, related to Fisher's axioms.
An institution where Eric Weinstein observed a lack of openness to heterodox ideas in significant volume.
Refers to Steven Tyler and Joe Perry of Aerosmith, another example of a 'combustible dyad' in musical partnerships.
Comedian discussed in the context of 'canceling' and rehabilitation, with conflicting public desires for his return versus continued ostracization.
Cited as an innovative act of terrorism with theatrical and artistic motivations, targeting symbols like the World Trade Center for maximum impact beyond economic or political importance.
Research institute associated with Dana Boyd's idea of strategic silence.
Fantastic guitarist who noted that teaching blues guitarists many scales can turn them into shredders 'devoid of interest' but with great technical chops.
The songwriting partnership of The Beatles, cited as the ultimate example of a 'combustible dyad' whose rivalry fueled incredible music.
A company that has earned high returns in competitive sectors through competence, execution, and process development, according to Tyler Cowen.
Musician mentioned for his oud playing, showing blues and rock and roll influences.
Skateboarder famous for innovating new ways to interact with the skateboard beyond its original function.
Famed classical guitarist, mentioned as Charo's teacher.
An 'unbelievable gift to the guitar', described as a virtuoso unknown to many outside the guitar community.
Harmonica player for Blues Traveler, engaged in an 'artistic conversation' with Sugar Blue over the instrument's capabilities.
John Lennon's son, who pointed out 'Strawberry Fields Forever' as a discontinuity in his father's compositional ability.
Classical composer whose works Eric Weinstein finds somewhat 'repellent' in language, while Tyler Cowen believes a significant portion of his younger works are 'boring'.
A wonderful performer of Spanish piano music.
Singer whose disco-influenced version of 'Knock on Wood' Eric Weinstein initially disliked due to overproduction.
A great sarangi player/violinist whose performance was detailed in Neil Sorrell's book.
Musical duo (Rolling Stones) exemplify a 'combustible dyad' in creative partnerships.
Businessman, described by Tyler Cowen as the 'most impressive human' he has met in terms of execution, integration, and synthesis, and a man of utmost integrity, despite political controversies.
A convicted murderer who spent 19 years in prison; Tyler Cowen plans to interview him, raising questions about learning from individuals and exoneration.
A book of musicology which contained sound files, introducing Eric Weinstein to Indian classical music.
Classical composer whom Tyler Cowen believes is underrated and closer in quality to Mozart than generally stated.
A compositional duo referred to as a 'combustible dyad' that produced incredible music through rivalry.
Infamous cult leader and criminal, whose song 'Look at Your Game Girl' Eric Weinstein finds incredibly beautiful, highlighting the struggle to reconcile artistic contribution with depraved actions.
Pioneer of percussive guitar, known for innovations in playing the instrument through harmonics and drumming on the wood.
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