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Two Wars, No Clear Exit Plan. Now What? | TED Explains the World with Ian Bremmer
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Key Moments
The US and Iran are locked in a costly war with no clear exit, driven by a fundamental disagreement over leverage, while the Ukraine war shows signs of escalating as Russia faces increasing pressure.
Key Insights
The Iran-US war is ongoing because President Trump and Iranian military leadership fundamentally disagree on their leverage, with Iran believing they can wait out the US by controlling the Strait of Hormuz.
Despite direct conflict, both the US and Iran are exercising restraint, hitting primarily military targets and avoiding widespread infrastructure destruction or decapitation strikes, due to unacceptable casualty risks and regional ally concerns.
President Trump is privately considering three options for the Iran conflict: the US walks away and lets Gulf States negotiate, continues direct negotiations for a compromise, or escalates militarily, potentially targeting nuclear facilities.
The global economic impact of the Iran war is significant, with an estimated cost of $600-$700 per American family due to higher gas prices alone, and hundreds of billions in broader inflation and infrastructure damage.
The speaker is more worried about the Russia-Ukraine war metastasizing than the Iran conflict, citing Russia's engagement in asymmetric warfare against NATO allies and increased support for Iran.
While a ceasefire in Ukraine is possible, with China and Kazakhstan urging Putin to negotiate, the risk remains that Putin could make a calamitous decision if pushed into a corner, potentially even considering a tactical nuclear deployment.
The Iran conflict: a stalemate driven by leverage disputes
The war between Iran and the United States, now in its sixth month, is characterized by a lack of progress on core issues and a clear absence of an exit strategy. This conflict stems from a fundamental disagreement between President Trump and the Iranian military leadership regarding their respective leverage. While a memorandum of understanding was signed, it quickly fell apart due to differing perceptions of power. Iran believes it can continue to disrupt shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and exert control until the US concedes, while Trump believes that by escalating military pressure, he can force Iran to capitulate and accept a deal where they can sell oil but not control the strait. This strategic impasse is why the fighting persists, despite the significant costs to all involved.
Restraint amidst hostilities: a delicate balancing act
Paradoxically, despite the ongoing hostilities and blockades, both the US and Iran are demonstrating a significant level of restraint. The US is not targeting Iranian leadership or conducting widespread destruction of infrastructure, focusing instead on military targets. Similarly, Iran has responded in a tit-for-tat manner, matching US strikes on specific infrastructure like desalination plants or bridges, but not engaging in an all-out war. This restraint is driven by the unacceptable risks of escalation for the US, including potential casualties to American soldiers and damage to regional allies, and the understanding that Iran can inflict considerable damage in response to major US threats. This uncomfortable middle ground has become the dominant feature of the Middle East conflict for weeks.
Divergent paths to resolution: Trump's three options
President Trump is reportedly considering three primary paths forward for the Iran conflict. The first is a US withdrawal, leaving the Gulf States to negotiate a resolution directly with Iran, which would likely involve substantial financial concessions from the Gulf nations. The second option involves continued direct negotiations between the US and Iran, hoping that the demonstrated willingness to endure economic pain (higher oil prices, blockade) might create a new impetus for compromise. The third, more escalatory option, includes a limited increase in targeted infrastructure strikes or potential action against Iran's nuclear facilities, which Trump has vowed to prevent. None of these options guarantee an immediate reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, and each carries risks of further damage and fighting.
The economic fallout: a global ripple effect
The economic consequences of the Iran conflict are substantial and widespread. While the global economy has shown more resilience than anticipated, the disruption has led to an estimated cost of $600-$700 per American family due to increased gas prices. Globally, the disruption to oil markets, coupled with impacts on fertilizer, food, and other commodity prices, is likely costing hundreds of billions of dollars. Iran's economy has suffered over $100 billion in damage, and critical infrastructure like Qatar's LNG facility will require billions and years to repair. The conflict highlights how even a regional war can exert significant pressure on global supply chains and financial markets.
Ukraine: a war with metastasizing potential
While the Iran conflict remains in a tense stalemate, the speaker expresses greater concern about the potential for the Russia-Ukraine war to metastasize. Russia is already employing asymmetric warfare against NATO allies, engaging in acts of vandalism, arson, and direct strikes on critical infrastructure in Eastern Europe. Putin is also increasing support for Iran's actions against US bases, evidenced by the precision of Iranian strikes. Furthermore, Russia is intensifying its attacks on Ukrainian shipping in the Black Sea, aiming to exacerbate global food shortages. The speaker fears that as Russia faces increasing internal and external pressures, Putin could make unpredictable and calamitous decisions, moving away from a position of strategic calculation towards one of desperation.
The specter of escalation: nuclear concerns and Putin's mindset
The possibility of Russia deploying tactical nuclear weapons remains a concern, though the speaker believes it is unlikely for now due to opposition from key global players like China and India. However, the lack of checks and balances on Putin, combined with his deteriorating situation and potentially poor information flow, creates a dangerous dynamic. Unlike leaders who would likely seek de-escalation to preserve their nation or personal power, Putin may be increasingly willing to go down with the ship, akin to leaders of groups like ISIS or Hamas. This mindset, coupled with the ongoing military and economic pressures, raises the risk of irrational or catastrophic decisions in the coming years if diplomatic nudges, such as those from Kazakhstan, are ignored.
Seeking a diplomatic off-ramp: challenges and possibilities
Efforts to find a diplomatic off-ramp for both conflicts are ongoing but fraught with difficulty. In Iran, the US and Iran continue to exchange messages, and the US has observed periods of holding fire, indicating a desire for an de-escalation. However, Iran's core negotiating position, demanding control over the Strait of Hormuz, has not shifted. For Ukraine, while international pressure is mounting, with leaders like Kazakhstan's President Tokayev urging Putin to accept a ceasefire, the path to resolution is uncertain. Putin's need to maintain control and his war economy present significant hurdles. Ultimately, the speaker suggests that the conflict may end through a palace coup against Putin, Ukrainian targeting of Putin himself, or a negotiated settlement, with the current trajectory pointing towards continued worsening without intervention.
The diminishing influence of "Trump disruption"
The speaker believes that the era of peak "Trump disruption" on the global stage is likely over, particularly after the upcoming midterm elections. Trump's ability to unilaterally impose tariffs, strike deals over the heads of allies, or force capitulations appears to be facing clearer global limits. This anticipated shift will allow countries to hedge their positions, assert their interests, and plan for a post-Trump American relationship, offering greater clarity and stability in the international arena over the coming months.
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Common Questions
The war continues because both President Trump and the Iranian military leadership fundamentally disagree on their leverage. Iran believes it can continue to disrupt the Strait of Hormuz until it gains control, while Trump believes he can force capitulation through continued strikes.
Topics
Mentioned in this video
Mentioned in relation to the 'Pottery Barn solution' metaphor.
President of the United States, whose perspective on leverage and willingness to use military force against Iran is a key factor in the ongoing conflict. His ego is seen as preventing a resolution that would allow Iran to claim victory.
Mentioned in contrast to the Iran conflict, highlighting Trump's approach to trade disputes where he backed away from a prolonged tariff fight with China.
Prime Minister of Israel, meeting with Trump to discuss escalating US involvement in a war perceived to be more in Israel's interest than the US.
Senator whose addition to the meeting between Trump and Netanyahu signals skepticism towards Israeli pushes for greater US engagement in the conflict.
The role that President Tokayev of Kazakhstan might be positioning himself for, potentially influencing his mediation efforts in the Ukraine war.
Mentioned as someone who has stated he is no longer a Republican, and who likes JD Vance, suggesting a potential orchestrated strategy to differentiate Vance from failing Trump policies.
His investigation was a point of contention between Trump and Zelensky, previously causing anger from Trump.
Former leader of Hungary, mentioned in the context of Russian strategy to divide NATO.
President of Ukraine, whose favorable meeting with Trump is noted. Previously, Trump was angry with Zelensky for refusing to investigate the Bidens.
His investigation was a point of contention between Trump and Zelensky, previously causing anger from Trump.
Mentioned as having pushed for more significant sanctions against Russians.
Leader of Russia, whose actions in Ukraine are a major concern. He faces internal economic pressure and potential public anger, and his decisions are not subject to checks and balances. There's a worry he could make calamitous decisions, trending towards being like the heads of ISIS or Hamas.
President of Kazakhstan, who met with Putin and directly urged him to accept a ceasefire.
Discussed as being in its sixth month of conflict with the United States, with ongoing attacks and counterattacks. Its primary leverage is seen in its ability to block the Strait of Hormuz.
Engaged in a conflict with Iran, facing costs and seeking a resolution. President Trump's perspective on leverage and military action is central to the conflict.
A critical chokepoint for oil transport, which Iran is using as leverage by blocking it. Iran seeks control over the strait, while the US aims to force capitulation.
Engaged in negotiations with the Houthis over payment for safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz.
Territories controlled by the Houthis where Saudi Arabia has been paying salaries.
Mentioned as one of the Gulf States that may need to negotiate an outcome with Iran if the US walks away.
Not a direct part of the current Iran-US war, but previously engaged in conflict with the US in February. The Israeli Prime Minister is expected to push for US escalation.
Mentioned as having a leader aligned with President Trump.
Mentioned as a country where Victor Orbán is no longer in power, making it harder for Putin to divide NATO.
Mentioned as one of the Gulf States that may need to negotiate an outcome with Iran if the US walks away, and part of the overland pipeline route avoiding the Strait of Hormuz.
A deeply underground hardened facility in Iran believed to be involved in uranium enrichment capabilities, a potential target for military escalation.
Mentioned in the context of trade tariffs with the US and as a significant importer of oil whose reduced demand is easing global energy market strain.
Mentioned as a region where Trump has had recent successes, with a political transition moving quickly and new governments aligned with him.
Regions where Russia is reportedly providing support for individuals to engage in arson attacks and vandalism.
Region where Russia is reportedly providing support for individuals to engage in arson attacks and vandalism.
The capital of Ukraine, where Russia is stepping up attacks on civilian targets.
Mentioned as having a leader aligned with President Trump.
Mentioned as having a leader aligned with President Trump.
Region where Russia is reportedly providing support for individuals to engage in arson attacks and vandalism.
Regions where Russia is reportedly providing support for individuals to engage in arson attacks and vandalism.
Mentioned as having a newly elected leader aligned with President Trump.
Mentioned as having a new government that is more aligned with President Trump.
Engaged in a war with Russia. Currently winning, which has improved its relationship with Trump. Europe is funding the war, and Ukraine is launching drones into Russian territory.
Used as a point of comparison for the economic and policy mistakes made in the current Iran conflict.
Used as a point of comparison for the economic and policy mistakes made in the current Iran conflict, and the benchmark for major US presidential policy mistakes.
Mentioned as a war that Donald Trump avoided due to family connections, highlighting his understanding of the damaging nature of wars.
Engaged in a war with Ukraine. Facing internal economic pressure and potential public anger due to Ukrainian strikes. Putin's actions are a major concern, with potential for dangerous decisions.
Area where Russia is hitting Ukrainian ships, aiming to create a food shortage by hindering exports.
A Ukrainian port city that remains functional, but ships are unwilling to travel there due to insurance and crew risks from Russian attacks.
Mentioned as a country that would likely oppose Russia's use of a tactical nuclear weapon.
Mentioned as a country that would likely oppose Russia's use of a tactical nuclear weapon and whose president has urged Putin to accept a ceasefire.
An important proxy of Iran, engaged in a secondary fight with Saudi Arabia for cash, demanding payment for safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz.
The governing body of Iran, whose negotiating position remains unchanged, demanding control of the Strait of Hormuz. Its leaders are described as brutal and repressive.
Mentioned as a leader type that might be willing to go down with the ship, in contrast to US or Chinese leaders, drawing a parallel to Putin's potential actions.
The alliance is a target for Russian asymmetric warfare, with the intention of driving wedges among member countries.
Mentioned as a leader type that might be willing to go down with the ship, in contrast to US or Chinese leaders, drawing a parallel to Putin's potential actions.
Mentioned as a critical missile that the US might be running low on, which could give Iran an advantage.
Mentioned as a critical missile that the US might be running low on, which could give Iran an advantage.
Ukraine has been granted licenses to produce these missiles on its territory, with US support.
Mentioned as a topic Tucker Carlson might discuss, in the context of differentiating JD Vance from Trump policies.
A metaphor used to describe the situation in the Middle East, implying that the US broke it and now expects Gulf States to fix it, which is not an ideal solution.
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