Key Moments
“This Will Be The Most Violent Election Of Our Lifetime” - Robert Pape
Modern WisdomKey Moments
Support for political violence has surged among Americans, with 25% endorsing its use against political opponents, a trend that fuels the current era of 'violent populism' and portends a dangerous election cycle.
Key Insights
25% of American adults, equating to 65 million people, now support the use of force to prevent a specific political figure from being president, with 44% of Democrats expressing this view in a recent survey.
In the last five years, the University of Chicago Project on Security and Threats has conducted 21 national surveys on support for political violence, revealing a significant and concerning upward trend.
While historical studies from 1990-2015 showed a majority of lone wolf political violence originating from the right, starting in 2015, the balance has shifted, with current violence being heavily balanced between left and right.
45% of individuals prosecuted for January 6th were business owners, doctors, gynecologists, or nurse practitioners, challenging the stereotype of political violence perpetrators as solely unemployed or fringe individuals.
The primary drivers of violent populism are a demographic shift from a white majority to a white minority democracy and a wealth shift concentrating assets in the top 1%, creating widespread anxiety and economic insecurity.
Foreign powers like Russia and China can magnify existing social issues and polarizing sentiments by an estimated 10-20%, but they do not appear to be able to create such movements out of whole cloth.
A new era of violent populism
Robert Pape defines the current political climate as a new era of 'violent populism,' distinct from historical political violence or civil unrest. Unlike past periods marked by isolated incidents or protests, this era is characterized by mass support for political violence lodged within the mainstream of society. Pape emphasizes that this is not merely political polarization but a dangerous shift where anger is transformed into violent anger, encouraged by widespread public backing. This new paradigm, he argues, is historically unprecedented in its scale and intensity, significantly altering the landscape of American elections and societal stability.
Escalating support for political violence
Recent surveys from the University of Chicago Project on Security and Threats reveal alarming trends in support for political violence. The 21st national survey, conducted just before this discussion, showed a significant surge: 25% of American adults, or 65 million people, support the use of force to prevent a particular political figure from holding the presidency. This figure includes 44% of self-identified Democrats. When probed further, focus groups and survey experiments indicate that for a substantial portion (55%), 'use of force' implies assassination. This contrasts sharply with previous surveys where anti-Trump political violence support hovered around 6-14%. On the pro-Trump side, 16% of Americans (approximately 40 million) support the use of military force to suppress democratic protesters, contributing to an overall figure of 100 million Americans supporting political violence as the midterms approach.
The anatomy of collective political violence
Pape analyzes three major instances of collective political violence in the US since summer 2020: the George Floyd protests, January 6th, and campus protests after October 7th. He notes a pattern where peaceful protests can devolve into violence, often after dark, with splinter groups engaging in destructive behavior. During the George Floyd protests, an estimated 5-7% of participants engaged in violence. Similarly, for January 6th, while 120,000 people attended the rally, around 10,000 surrounded the Capitol, and approximately 1,600 physically breached it. These individuals, far from being solely fringe elements, included professionals like business owners and doctors, challenging media narratives that often portray January 6th participants as simply 'silly people wearing silly hats' or exclusively militia members.
Shifting demographics and economic anxiety as drivers
The underlying causes of this rise in violent populism are rooted in profound social changes. The primary driver is a demographic shift: the US is transitioning from a white-majority to a white-minority democracy, a change unprecedented in its 250-year history. This shift is politically significant, impacting party compositions and election outcomes, and is a central concern for many Trump voters who see him as a bulwark against it. Simultaneously, there's a massive wealth shift to the top 1%, leaving the majority economically stagnant or declining. This creates widespread anxiety, with people fearing the 'other side' will win elections and further erode their economic standing or benefits. Both sides, Pape notes, share this petrification about losing what they have.
The normalization of violence and the lack of pushback
A critical element of this era is the normalization of political violence. Pape highlights that while a majority (65-70%) of Americans abhor political violence, they are a 'silent majority' lacking a vehicle to express their views. Political leaders have largely failed to condemn or restrain their own constituents engaged in such behavior, instead often finger-pointing at the opposition. This lack of pushback allows the normalization to cascade, turning sentiment into action when a focal point, like an election or a specific event, emerges. Pape stresses that the issue is not just violent extremists, but the far larger group of people who sympathize with them, providing the social support that animates actual violence.
The election cycle as a focal point
The upcoming election cycle is identified as a critical focal point that could ignite further political violence. Pape outlines three stages: 1) a 'legitimacy shock' from a razor-thin election outcome where losers feel cheated; 2) the focal point of certifying the election, potentially leading to another January 6th-style event; and 3) prolonged violent opposition if such events occur. He warns that regardless of which party wins, the existing sentiments and social changes suggest a high risk of instability. The absence of political leaders actively addressing and restraining violence among their supporters, coupled with a public that is deeply anxious about demographic and economic futures, creates a volatile environment.
Global trends and foreign influence
This trend of violent populism is not unique to the United States but is emerging in other mature democracies like Canada, Britain, and France. Germany, for instance, saw a storming of the Reichstag that Pape briefed German leaders on, which may have helped thwart an assassination plot. While foreign powers like Russia and China can amplify existing domestic divisions by 10-20%, Pape argues they cannot create movements from scratch. Their influence is more about magnifying pre-existing issues like social change and economic anxiety, rather than manufacturing them. The lack of a 'rally around the flag' effect in response to the Iran war, even among Republicans, further suggests that foreign propaganda has limited power to fundamentally alter American public opinion compared to deeply entrenched domestic social changes.
The new archetype of political violence supporters
The stereotype of a political violence supporter as unemployed, rural, and part of a militia group is outdated, according to Pape's research. The new archetype, particularly evident since Trump's rise and January 6th, includes well-educated, middle-class Americans with stable careers and assets – people with 'something to lose.' Examples like Luigi Manion (generational wealth, Ivy League education) and Cole Allen (engineer) illustrate this shift. For January 6th prosecutions, 45% were professionals such as business owners, doctors, and nurses. These individuals are driven by a profound fear that the 'other side' winning will strip away their way of life, their future, or their children's future, making them willing to risk everything for their political goals.
Mentioned in This Episode
●Supplements
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●Books
●People Referenced
Support for Political Violence in the US (Survey Data)
Data extracted from this episode
| Group | Type of Violence Supported | Support Level (Years Ago) | Support Level (Sept 2025) | Support Level (Recent Survey) | Equivalent Adults |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anti-Trump Public | Anti-Trump political violence | 6-9% | 14% | 25% | 65 million |
| Democrats (self-identified) | Anti-Trump political violence | N/A | N/A | 44% | N/A |
| Pro-Trump Public | Trump using military to suppress democratic protesters | N/A | N/A | 16% | 40 million |
| Overall | Support for political violence (total) | N/A | N/A | N/A | 100 million |
US Non-Hispanic White Population Percentage Shift
Data extracted from this episode
| Year | Percentage Non-Hispanic White |
|---|---|
| 1990 | 76% |
| Today | 57% |
| Future (15-20 years) | 49% |
US Wealth Distribution to Top 1%
Data extracted from this episode
| Period | Top 1% Wealth Control |
|---|---|
| Late 1980s | 17% |
| Two years ago (most recent data) | 26% |
Common Questions
Robert Pape believes the number one threat to America comes from tens of millions of Americans who support political violence, rather than foreign governments or fringe militia groups. Once this support is mainstream, it changes everything.
Topics
Mentioned in this video
The speaker's new YouTube channel.
Iranian state-sponsored propaganda videos using Lego animation to embarrass President Trump and manipulate American opinion on the Iran war.
The TV show where Donald Trump was known before his meteoric rise in politics.
Mentioned as a foreign government that is not the number one threat to America, but later discussed in the context of propaganda videos targeting American public opinion.
Mentioned as 'MAGA country' where an 'unbelievable pollution disaster' occurred, and where Democratic leaders showed no sympathy.
The speaker's birthplace, mentioned in relation to East Palestine, Ohio.
Mentioned in the context of a storming of the Reichstag, similar to the January 6 Capitol attack in the US.
Mentioned as a city where a hypothetical military-style immigration enforcement operation, Metro Blitz, was predicted to occur.
Mentioned as a city where a hypothetical military-style immigration enforcement operation, Operation Midway Blitz, was predicted to occur.
The location of Russia's Internet Research Agency.
Mentioned as a foreign power that potentially benefits from America's civil unrest and manipulated the 2016 election.
Mentioned as a foreign power that potentially benefits the most from America's civil unrest.
Mentioned in the context of the Iran war, with some Republicans being upset at Israel about the war.
Mentioned as a target of assassination attempts, a key figure in the rise of violent populism, and a focus of political violence both for and against him.
Mentioned as a target of an assassination attempt, which missed her but almost killed her husband, Paul Pelosi.
Identified as a US Supreme Court justice who was targeted in an assassination attempt.
Mentioned as the governor of Pennsylvania whose house was targeted by an arsonist.
A political activist and podcast host who was reportedly assassinated in 2025 in a hypothetical scenario to illustrate political violence.
An individual mentioned as a canonical example of someone engaging in political violence, highlighting their generational wealth and background.
Mentioned for his attempts to downplay the violence of January 6, and later as someone who was deplatformed without reducing political violence.
A public figure mentioned as using LMNT electrolytes.
Identified as the third would-be assassin of Trump, an educated engineer who wrote a manifesto explaining his motives as a 'social justice warrior'.
The husband of Nancy Pelosi, who was almost killed in an assassination attempt against her.
Mentioned for his quote 'a house divided' in the context of internal conflict in the US.
Referenced as a highly effective politician, with President Trump being compared to him in terms of ability to get votes.
The research center founded by the speaker, which conducts national surveys on support for political violence in the United States.
Mentioned in the context of studies on domestic threats and their role in investigating January 6 participants.
Mentioned in the context of studies on domestic threats.
Discussed as an example of a terrorist group whose rise was directly linked to growing public support for political violence among Catholics in Northern Ireland.
An American terrorist group from the 1960s that conducted bombings, believing they had community support, but were later disappointed by the lack of widespread acceptance of their violence.
The political party of the German Chancellor, mentioned in the context of meetings with its top leaders.
A political party in Germany, mentioned in the context of meetings with its leaders.
A newspaper where the speaker published an op-ed warning about political violence.
Mentioned as the location of studies on Russian manipulation of the 2016 US election.
A Russian organization dedicated to influencing and polarizing American attitudes on social media, based in St. Petersburg.
A news channel mentioned as an example of media that might dismiss certain political issues as trivial.
An e-commerce platform praised for its effectiveness in converting browsers into buyers, highlighting its checkout and Shop Pay features.
A brand mentioned as using Shopify for its e-commerce operations.
A brand mentioned as using Shopify for its e-commerce operations.
A social media platform mentioned as where President Trump continues to glorify the January 6 participants.
A brand specializing in non-alcoholic beers that taste like real beer, recommended for those who want to avoid hangovers.
Recommended as a place to purchase the speaker's book.
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