How much work is involved in running a successful Substack newsletter?

Running a Substack comparable to Nate Silver or Paul Krugman requires significant effort, comparable to a full-time journalism job (around 40-50 hours per week), involving consistent writing and content differentiation.

How many people are making a million dollars or more on Substack?

Estimates suggest there are around 34 newsletters at the 'Krugman level' (over 500,000 subscribers), implying roughly 50 individuals could be earning seven figures or more.

What is considered a 'good living' from a Substack newsletter?

If a 'good living' is defined as $150,000 per year or more, then by analyzing the top 20 newsletters in major categories, it's estimated that over 500 people are currently achieving this income level.

Can the newsletter economy on Substack reach the scale of the peak US newspaper industry?

In an optimistic future, Substack could potentially reach 50 million paid subscribers and $4.5 billion in revenue, which is comparable to the current state of newspapers but still less than their peak circulation and revenue.

Are paid newsletters better or worse than traditional newspapers?

Newsletters lack the fact-checking and editing infrastructure of newspapers, but offer more direct engagement with individual authors. They can be less partisan in acknowledging bias but may also lose 'boots on the ground' reporting.

What are the biggest risks for the future of the newsletter economy?

The primary risk is the dominance of a single platform like Substack, which might prioritize growth and monetization ('inshitification') over supporting a diverse ecosystem of writers, potentially turning into another attention-based distraction tool.

How can I reduce my phone usage effectively?

The most effective strategy is not to focus on phone habits directly, but to enrich your life with meaningful activities, connections, and self-reflection, which naturally reduces the appeal of your phone.

Is it okay to use ChatGPT while reading classic literature?

Using tools like ChatGPT for summaries or themes is acceptable, but it's crucial not to interrupt your reading flow; queue up understanding before diving into a chapter to maintain cognitive engagement.

How do I decide what's worth writing down in my notebooks?

Write down whatever comes to mind relevant to a topic. The value emerges later during the filtering process: look for ideas you return to multiple times or that simply stand out to you in retrospect.

Is Substack the best platform for new writers trying to build an audience today?

While Substack offers a viable model, the market is dominated by one platform. The ideal scenario would be a more diverse ecosystem of independent platforms like Substack to prevent 'inshitification' and offer writer choice.

What is 'inshitification' in the context of digital platforms?

'Inshitification' refers to the process where digital attention economy tools, initially useful, become worse as they prioritize making money off their audience, often through algorithmic curation and ads, alienating long-term users.

What were the best thrillers Cal Newport read in December?

Cal Newport ranked Michael Crichton's 'Airframe' as the best. He also enjoyed 'The Great Train Robbery' by Crichton and Isaac Asimov's novelization of 'Fantastic Voyage'.

How Many Substack Millionaires Are There? (The Math Behind the Newsletter Economy) | Cal Newport

Deep Questions with Cal Newport

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Jan 12, 2026|11,270 views|258|51

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Key Moments

TL;DR

Substack offers a viable alternative to traditional media, with 34+ millionaires and ~500+ earning good livings, but its future depends on avoiding platform consolidation.

Key Insights

Paul Krugman's successful Substack demonstrates the financial viability of paid newsletters, earning him seven figures annually.

Running a successful newsletter comparable to a large one requires a full-time commitment of 40-50 hours per week.

Approximately 34 Substack newsletters likely earn over $1 million annually, with around 500+ earning over $150,000.

The newsletter economy's current scale (5 million paid subscribers, $450 million revenue) is significantly smaller than peak newspapers ($50 billion revenue, 60 million circulation).

Substack's potential for growth is substantial, with projections of 50 million paid subscribers, but it may not fully replace the revenue or employment of peak print media.

Newsletters may offer a more transparent and trustworthy alternative to traditional media, as individual author biases are clearer than institutional claims of neutrality.

The biggest risk to the newsletter economy's future as a media alternative is Substack becoming a consolidated, "inshitified" platform driven by valuation rather than writer support.

THE PAUL KRUGMAN CASE STUDY: A SEVEN-FIGURE SUCCESS

The departure of Paul Krugman from The New York Times initially signaled the decline of traditional media. However, Krugman's pivot to Substack revealed a surprisingly lucrative new path, with over 500,000 subscribers and a reported seven-figure income. This success challenges pessimistic narratives surrounding the future of journalism and expertise in the digital age, suggesting that paid email newsletters could form the bedrock of a new professional journalism model.

THE REAL WORK BEHIND THE SCENES

While a successful newsletter might appear effortless, it demands significant effort. Drawing parallels with Nate Silver's similar Substack, the endeavor requires a commitment akin to a full-time journalism job, approximately 40-50 hours per week. This includes consistent content creation, refining ideas, timing publications, and employing a comprehensive approach to topics, all while maintaining writing quality and a long-term perspective.

QUANTIFYING THE NEWSLETTER MILLIONAIRES

Estimating the number of high earners on Substack is challenging, but analysis suggests around 34 newsletters likely achieve over $1 million annually, based on subscriber counts and conversion rates. Broadening the definition to a good living (over $150,000 annually), the number rises to an estimated 500-1,000 individuals across various categories like politics, culture, and technology, with finance and business potentially yielding higher returns through premium subscriptions.

COMPARING NEWSLETTERS TO THE NEWSPAPER GIANT

Historically, the US newspaper industry peaked with around 60 million daily circulations and generated approximately $50 billion in advertising revenue. Currently, the newsletter economy boasts 5 million paid subscribers and an estimated $450 million in revenue, employing around 500 full-time writers. While significantly smaller, projections suggest Substack could reach 50 million subscribers, making its circulation comparable to peak newspapers and its revenue a fraction of that peak, but approaching current newspaper revenue levels.

NEWSLETTER VS. NEWSPAPER: A TRADE-OFF ANALYSIS

Paid newsletters offer distinct advantages over traditional newspapers, notably in transparency. Unlike institutions that may mask biases, individual newsletter writers' perspectives are generally clearer, fostering greater reader trust. Furthermore, a competitive digital marketplace tends to elevate skilled writers, ensuring higher quality content. However, newsletters lack the institutional fact-checking, copy-editing, and on-the-ground reporting capabilities inherent in established newspapers, potentially leading to reduced accountability and depth.

THE SUBSTACK CONSOLIDATION CONUNDRUM

A significant concern for the newsletter economy's future is the potential for consolidation around a single platform like Substack. If Substack prioritizes company valuation over supporting a diverse ecosystem of writers, it risks becoming another "attention economy" distraction machine. The ideal scenario involves a competitive landscape with multiple independent, open-source, or niche platforms, preventing any single entity from dictating the terms of media creation and consumption.

PRACTICES FOR EFFECTIVE DIGITAL DETOX AND DEEP WORK

Strategies for reducing phone usage and enhancing focus extend beyond digital hygiene. Evidence suggests that aggressively pursuing meaningful activities, hobbies, and self-reflection directly combats the 'void' that prompts excessive phone use. By enriching one's life with purpose and connection, the allure of shallow digital distractions diminishes, making deeper engagement with meaningful pursuits more appealing and sustainable.

NAVIGATING INFORMATION AND NOTETAKING IN THE DIGITAL AGE

When engaging with complex texts or ideas, tools like ChatGPT can supplement understanding, provided they don't interrupt the reading flow. Prioritizing primary sources and allowing for extended periods of focused reading before seeking external information is crucial for deep comprehension. Similarly, in notetaking, the value lies in filtering and revisiting ideas, not in immediate perfection. Capturing raw thoughts and allowing them to percolate can lead to future insights, emphasizing process over static output.

Mentioned in This Episode

●Software & Apps

●Companies

●Books

●People Referenced

Strategies for Reducing Phone Use

Practical takeaways from this episode

Do This

Aggressively pursue alternatives to phone use by learning new hobbies and trying new activities.

Fill life's voids with meaningful activities, connections, self-reflection, and growth.

Focus on making the rest of your life good, so that shallower digital alternatives are less appealing.

Understand the psychological reasons behind phone use, such as filling a void or masking life's difficulties.

Capture thoughts and ideas in dedicated notebooks, and filter them later for valuable insights.

When using external tools like ChatGPT for understanding, cue up understanding and then read an entire chapter or more before interrupting your focus.

Avoid This

Do not use phones and social media to simply fill a void or paper over life's difficulties without addressing the root cause.

Do not try to quit phone or social media use solely through willpower ('white-knuckling' it) without replacing the habit with something else.

Do not interrupt focused reading sessions to look things up mid-chapter; queue up understanding and then read comprehensively.

Newspaper Industry vs. Newsletter Economy (Peak/Current Comparison)

Data extracted from this episode

Metric	Newspapers (Peak)	Newspapers (Recent)	Newsletters (Current)	Newsletters (Optimistic Future)
Circulation (Millions)	60	20	5 (Paid)	50
Revenue (Billions)	50	11	0.45	4.5 (potential for higher with ads/events)
Journalists/Editors Employed	56,000 (1990)	25,000 (estimated)	500-1,000 (making a living)	5,000 (estimated)

Estimated Annual Income by Newsletter Category (Top 20)

Data extracted from this episode

Category	Subscribers (Rank 20)	Estimated Annual Income (USD)	Assumptions
Politics	200,000	$840,000+	$7/month, 5% conversion
Culture	130,000	$550,000	$7/month, 5% conversion
Technology	95,000	$400,000	$7/month, 5% conversion
Business	21,000	$88,000	$7/month, 5% conversion (likely higher due to premium pricing)
Finance	16,000	$67,000	$7/month, 5% conversion (likely higher due to premium pricing)

Common Questions

Based on his subscriber count and typical Substack conversion rates (3-10%), Paul Krugman is estimated to earn anywhere from $1.26 million to over $4 million annually.

Topics

Newsletter Economy Paul Krugman Media Landscape Phone Usage Independent Publishing Book Recommendations Writing Habits Traditional Media

Mentioned in this video

personHamish McKenzie

Co-founder of Substack, interviewed about the platform's growth potential and goals, aiming for 50 million paid subscribers.

softwarePaul Krugman's Substack

Paul Krugman's paid newsletter, which currently has 505,000 subscribers and ranks sixth in US politics on the platform.

softwarereally good business ideas

A website cited for its analysis of Substack newsletters with over 500,000 subscribers.

personCory Doctorow

Coined the term 'inshitification,' describing the cycle of digital attention tools worsening as they prioritize monetization over user experience.

bookFantastic Voyage

The novelization of the movie by Isaac Asimov, about a journey inside the human body, described as a well-constructed adventure thriller.

bookThe Great Train Robbery

Michael Crichton's novel based on a historical Victorian England train robbery, noted for its research and 'Sting'-like plot.

companyThe New York Times

Traditional media publication from which Paul Krugman departed due to disagreements over his newsletter and posting frequency.

personMichael Crichton

Author whose thrillers 'Airframe' and 'The Great Train Robbery' were reviewed. 'Airframe' was ranked as the best of the three discussed.

bookAirframe

A Michael Crichton techno-thriller about an airplane accident investigation, praised for its execution and pacing.

toolSubstack

organizationThe Washington Post

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