Key Moments

From Wet Lab to RL Env: 10,000 Drug-Discovery Campaigns in a Weekend — Ian Quigley, Leash Bio

Latent Space PodcastLatent Space Podcast
Science & Technology5 min read110 min video
Oct 14, 2026|168 views|5|1
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TL;DR

AI models can predict chemist intent in molecule design, not just physics, raising concerns about data sociology over genuine chemical understanding. Leash Bio uses DNA-encoded libraries (DELs) to generate vast, reliable data, aiming to overcome these limitations.

Key Insights

1

AI models can achieve 60% top-five accuracy in predicting the chemist of a molecule based solely on its structure, suggesting they learn 'sociology' rather than fundamental chemistry.

2

DNA-encoded libraries (DELs) can generate libraries of up to 40 trillion molecules, enabling massive-scale drug discovery experiments.

3

The Kaggle competition revealed that current AI models performed no better than chance on predicting molecular binding for completely novel chemical libraries, highlighting a significant gap in generalization.

4

Leash Bio's Hermes model, using ESM and K-mer embeddings with cross-attention, showed stable performance across different data splits, unlike XGBoost which significantly dropped in predictive power when faced with out-of-distribution data.

5

Public datasets are likely unreliable for training AI in drug discovery due to 'sociology' and 'fingerprints' of chemists, such as preferences for certain building blocks or molecular weights, rather than true chemical principles.

6

Language models are being used by Leash Bio to represent molecules and proteins in natural English, enabling reasoning agents to explore chemical space and accelerate drug discovery in a 'lab in a loop' fashion.

The 'sociology' problem in AI chemistry

The conversation opens with a startling observation: AI models can identify the chemist who designed a molecule with 60% accuracy, suggesting they learn patterns related to individual chemists' styles and preferences ('sociology') rather than the underlying physics of chemistry. This 'Clever Hans' effect, where models learn proxies for true understanding, poses a significant challenge for AI in drug discovery. Leash Bio's founders, drawing from experiences at Recursion, are acutely aware of these 'cheating modes' and 'failure modes' in high-dimensional biological data.

DNA-encoded libraries: A high-throughput approach

DNA-encoded libraries (DELs) are presented as a core technology for Leash Bio, enabling the generation of massive chemical libraries—up to 40 trillion molecules. Unlike traditional methods that screen millions of compounds one by one, DELs attach a DNA barcode to each small molecule, allowing for pooled screening and subsequent sequencing of the barcodes to identify binders. This combinatorial approach allows for vast exploration of chemical space, with building blocks forming complex molecules. While DELs can be 'hefty' and introduce their own challenges, they offer unparalleled scale for generating data.

The Kaggle competition: A harsh reality check for AI generalization

Leash Bio's experience with a Kaggle competition, where they released a dataset of 4 billion interactions, starkly revealed the limitations of current AI in drug discovery. The competition, designed with various difficulty levels including entirely novel chemical libraries, found that while models performed adequately on data with shared building blocks, they failed to generalize to truly new chemical spaces, performing no better than chance. This outcome underscored the deep-seated issue that models often 'memorize' patterns in training data rather than learning fundamental chemical principles, leading Leash Bio to focus heavily on generating their own high-quality, reliable data.

Hermes: A robust model built for reliable data

In response to the data challenges, Leash Bio developed Hermes, a machine learning model designed for simplicity and rapid iteration. Using an ESM embedding for proteins and a K-mer embedding for molecules, combined with cross-attention, Hermes was trained exclusively on internally generated, high-quality data. Crucially, Hermes demonstrated stable performance across various evaluation splits, including those designed to prevent memorization by clustering similar building blocks. This resilience, in contrast to models like XGBoost that faltered on out-of-distribution data, highlights the importance of curated, reliable training datasets for building robust predictive models.

Beyond sociology: Engineering activity cliffs

Leash Bio employs a strategy of generating 'activity cliffs'—small changes in molecules or proteins that lead to significant changes in binding behavior. By experimentally mutating proteins and rescreening libraries, they can probe specific interactions and validate models' understanding of physical binding. This approach is crucial for moving beyond memorization. For example, when protein pockets are digitally altered, current state-of-the-art models often fail to recognize the change, shoving molecules into the non-existent pocket. Leash Bio's method of creating physical mutations and observing behavioral shifts helps train models to understand these causal relationships.

Language models as reasoning agents

The cutting edge of Leash Bio's work involves leveraging large language models (LLMs) to represent molecules and proteins in natural English. These models are trained on medicinal chemistry concepts, enabling them to reason about binding affinities and suggest experimental designs. This 'lab in a loop' approach allows for rapid iteration, with the LLM proposing experiments, receiving instant feedback from existing data, and refining its hypotheses. This is seen as a more robust method against memorization compared to attention-based models, as natural language provides a strong regularizer.

The business model: From data generation to reasoning

The core of Leash Bio's business model lies in their ability to generate massive, high-quality datasets and use them to train models that can reason about chemical space. While simply finding a single hit for a target might not necessitate complex ML, their approach aims for broad applicability. By generating proprietary starting materials for challenging protein targets, particularly in areas like inflammation where small molecules offer advantages over antibodies, Leash Bio aims to create value. The vision is to build an 'engine' for data generation and reasoning that can be applied across various domains beyond just drug discovery, such as agriculture or material science.

Bottlenecks and the path forward

The conversation touches upon remaining bottlenecks, including the need for greater building block diversity and more parallelizable purification methods for small molecules. However, a major bottleneck already being addressed is the cost of sequencing, which has dramatically decreased, enabling larger-scale experiments. Leash Bio's culture emphasizes meticulous attention to detail, tracking batch effects, and iterative refinement, which they believe is difficult to replicate. Their ultimate goal is to create a scalable platform that enables rapid discovery of novel therapeutics by deeply understanding chemical space and enabling advanced reasoning.

Common Questions

Leash Bio is a machine learning small molecule company that collects massive amounts of data on small molecules binding to protein targets. Their main goal is to drive advancements in machine learning understanding of these interactions and push small molecule material towards patient treatments, especially where current protein-based drugs are less effective or harder to administer.

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