Key Moments
Why You Fear the Unknown — and What It Can Teach You | Maya Shankar and Simone Stolzoff | TED
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Key Moments
Humans fear uncertainty so much we prefer a certain bad outcome to an uncertain one, but embracing the unknown can unlock growth and resilience.
Key Insights
A study at University College London found participants with a 50% chance of a painful electric shock experienced more anxiety than those with a 100% chance, highlighting a preference for certainty over ambiguity.
The period between a biopsy and a cancer diagnosis is often more stressful than chemotherapy or surgery, as knowing the situation allows for directed energy.
Identity is often tied to roles or what we 'do,' but anchoring identity to 'why' we do things (e.g., human connection, service) provides a more robust sense of self amidst change.
The Chinese symbol for chaos is also the symbol for opportunity; similarly, the Greek word 'apocalypsis' for apocalypse means 'revelation,' suggesting that upheaval can reveal hidden aspects of ourselves.
Moral elevation, triggered by witnessing extraordinary kindness or courage, can rewire the brain and crack open imagination about our own capabilities, as seen in the story of Reginald Dwayne Betts.
Trusting in future selves is crucial; the version of you that faces a future problem will be better equipped with context and information than your present self.
The paradox of preferring certain pain over uncertain outcomes
Research suggests humans have a deep-seated aversion to uncertainty. A notable study from University College London revealed that participants facing a 50% chance of a painful electric shock experienced significantly more anxiety than those who knew with 100% certainty that they would receive the shock. This phenomenon extends to various life situations, such as waiting for medical test results, where the period of not knowing can be more distressing than receiving a difficult diagnosis. This preference for certainty stems from our evolutionary wiring, which evolved to help us anticipate and mitigate risks. Our brains are prediction machines, constantly trying to solve for the future. However, this can lead to short-circuiting when faced with changes outside our control, as we grasp for agency in uncertain moments, often experiencing heightened stress due to the illusion that our involvement could alter the outcome.
The evolutionary roots and societal costs of fearing uncertainty
From an evolutionary perspective, uncertainty could be fatal for our ancestors. Hearing a rustle in the bushes without knowing its source would trigger a survival instinct, making our brains wired to feel safe and secure when certain, and uncomfortable when uncertain. This instinct can be beneficial, prompting actions like wearing a seatbelt. However, the cost of this discomfort with uncertainty is significant: it can lead us to maintain the status quo in unfulfilling jobs or relationships simply because the uncertainty of change feels too daunting. This intolerance of uncertainty can have a narrowing effect, closing our minds to new possibilities. When we think we know exactly how things will unfold, our perspective becomes limited. Conversely, maintaining a state of not knowing can open us up to unforeseen opportunities and growth.
Identity and the fear of change
The fear of change is often deeply intertwined with our sense of self-identity. Identities—labels and roles we adopt—provide community, meaning, and purpose, helping to stave off existential dread. However, unexpected changes can threaten these identities, leaving us feeling unmoored. Cognitive scientist Maya Shankar shares a personal experience of her career-ending injury as a concert violinist, realizing she was grieving not just the loss of the instrument but her very self, as so much of her identity was entangled with being a violinist. This included her sense of belonging, self-confidence, and refuge from bullying. The realization that anchoring identity too tightly to 'what we do' is precarious is key. Instead, anchoring identity to 'why we do things'—the underlying passion or value (like human connection for Shankar)—provides a stable core that can guide us through changes and be expressed through new outlets. This 'why' becomes a north star, allowing for greater equanimity in the face of life's unexpected turns.
Diversifying identity beyond accomplishments
Author Simone Stolzoff emphasizes the value of diversifying identities, arguing that anchoring them to 'why' rather than 'what' makes them more robust. During the pandemic, many individuals whose identities were solely tied to their jobs (e.g., 'a Googler') faced an existential crisis when layoffs occurred. Stolzoff shares the story of Liz, a high-achiever who shifted her self-conception from her accomplishments (D1 athlete, teacher, lawyer) to her 'evergreen traits'—generous friend, believer in causes—after contracting a chronic illness. This shift connected her to her 'why,' an identity independent of external validation or market fluctuations, providing a more durable sense of self that could adapt to changing circumstances.
Uncertainty as a birthplace of possibility
While uncertainty often feels like a threat, it can also be the birthplace of possibility. The story of the startup Tiny Speck, which pivoted from its game 'Glitch' to create Slack, illustrates this. The founder, Stewart Butterfield, felt the game wasn't sustainable and, against conventional wisdom, shut it down at its peak. This pivot, driven by uncertainty about the current path, led to the creation of a highly successful company. This highlights that embracing the 'fog' of uncertainty can lead to discovering higher peaks or unexpected opportunities. As psychologist Rollo May suggests, commitment is healthiest 'in spite of doubt,' urging us to persist and make decisions even when unsure, thereby unlocking potential on the other side.
Practical strategies for embracing uncertainty
To navigate the discomfort of uncertainty, several strategies are proposed. First, find anchors—certain elements in life (values, commitments, core 'whys') that provide stability amidst change. Second, cultivate faith, not necessarily religious, but a belief in eventually reaching land, combined with consistent action ('keep rowing'). Action can absorb anxiety and lead to emergent clarity. Third, practice affect labeling by identifying specific emotions (anger, grief, sadness) rather than being overwhelmed by a general cloud of negativity; this creates psychological distance. Fourth, engage in self-affirmation exercises, writing down valued traits and identities not threatened by change to maintain a sense of self and avoid feeling unmoored. Finally, trust in your future self; the person you will become when facing a future problem will possess more context and be better equipped than your present self.
Moral elevation and the power of possibility
The concept of 'possible selves' in psychology highlights our constructed notions of expected, hoped-for, and feared futures. Reginald Dwayne Betts, sentenced to adult prison at 16, feared becoming a violent or addicted person. However, witnessing the extraordinary behavior of a fellow prisoner, Bilal—who maintained discipline and coached younger inmates—provided Betts with moral elevation. This experience, triggered by observing kindness and courage, cracked open his imagination about his own capabilities. Inspired, Betts began writing poetry, ultimately becoming a Yale Law graduate and MacArthur Genius winner. Moral elevation, a form of awe from witnessing others' exceptional behavior, can rewire our brains and inspire us to re-envision our own potential, particularly when faced with restrictive circumstances or unexpected negative changes. It underscores that we are not destined to become a certain person based on our current situation.
Revisiting identity and finding opportunity in chaos
The Chinese symbol for chaos also meaning opportunity and the Greek root of 'apocalypse' meaning 'revelation' both suggest that upheaval can lead to profound insights. Major life changes, whether losses or unexpected events, can serve as moments of revelation, uncovering deeply held beliefs about ourselves and our worth that were previously unexamined. Maya Shankar's journey through pregnancy losses revealed her belief that her self-worth as a woman was tied to having children. This realization, though uncomfortable, allowed her to challenge inherited notions and discover unexpected happiness and fulfillment in a child-free life. Similarly, Simone Stolzoff's experience waiting for news about a potential pregnancy loss, though agonizing, deepened his connection with his wife and highlighted what they truly cared about. These experiences demonstrate that while difficult, significant changes can unlock freedom, lead to personal transformation, and reveal a richer, more hopeful version of ourselves, often in ways we could never have anticipated.
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Common Questions
Our brains are wired as prediction machines, evolved to anticipate risks. Uncertainty creates anxiety because it leaves us feeling a lack of agency and the illusion that our involvement could change the outcome. A certain negative outcome, while unpleasant, provides clarity and a defined situation to address.
Topics
Mentioned in this video
Mentioned as the location where a study on uncertainty aversion was conducted, comparing participants' anxiety levels with different probabilities of receiving an electric shock.
An organization Liz, a woman discussed by Simone Stolzoff, worked with after college, finding identity through being a public school teacher.
Reginald Dwayne Betts's alma mater, a testament to his transformation and accomplishments after his prison sentence.
The university where ethicist Ira Bedzow works, advising students and hospital patients through difficult decisions.
A renowned violinist under whom Maya Shankar studied at the Juilliard School of Music.
The founder of Tiny Speck (which created Glitch and later Slack), who made the decision to pivot the company based on an internal tool.
A psychologist quoted for his idea that commitment is healthiest in spite of doubt, encouraging persistence even when uncertain.
A person whose story Maya Shankar discusses in her book, who, after being sentenced to adult prison at 16, was profoundly affected by the concept of 'possible selves' and the moral elevation he experienced from a fellow prisoner.
An ethicist and rabbi at Emory University who advises people through uncertain situations and uses three key questions to help guide decision-making.
Author whose advice column concept of 'ghost ships' is discussed as a way to understand and accept the lives we could have lived when making choices.
Maya Shankar's book, which explores science-based techniques and wisdom from others' stories to help navigate significant life changes and the emotions associated with them.
Simone Stolzoff's book, which argues for the value of diversifying identities and not defining oneself by a single role, aligning with the idea of anchoring identity to one's 'why'.
Mentioned as a publication that covered the launch of the game Glitch by the startup Tiny Speck.
The startup that developed the game Glitch and later pivoted to create the internal-communications tool that became Slack.
A design firm where Simone Stolzoff previously worked, known for its innovative culture and the metaphor of leading through fog.
Reginald Dwayne Betts's alma mater where he aspired to study engineering before his incarceration.
A massive online multiplayer game developed by Tiny Speck, which was shut down at the peak of its success to pivot to a new product.
An internal-communications tool developed by Tiny Speck (later rebranded) that became one of the most successful software companies of all time, born from a pivot away from the game Glitch.
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