Why did Kevin Kelly's 'A Thousand True Fans' idea initially seem to fail?

The rise of large social media platforms and their optimization for advertising revenue hijacked Web 2.0. These platforms created algorithmic feeds that rewarded passive consumption and commoditized content, making it harder for individual creators to build loyal communities.

How is the 'A Thousand True Fans' concept making a comeback?

With the rise of online paywalls, subscription services, and a greater comfort in leaving social media's 'walled gardens', creators can now more effectively cultivate direct relationships with their audience and monetize their work.

What role do platforms like Substack or Patreon play in supporting creators?

Platforms that allow for direct fan support, like subscription services and direct monetization tools, enable creators to build loyal communities and earn a living, similar to the original 'A Thousand True Fans' model.

Is it easy for anyone to make a living as a creative online now?

While opportunities have vastly broadened, making a living creatively online is still challenging and requires talent, timing, and luck. The internet has democratized access but hasn't eliminated the difficulty of success.

What lessons can be learned from the evolution of online news platforms like Breaking Points?

Breaking Points demonstrates that independent online news shows can achieve significant viewership and financial viability with a fraction of the overhead of traditional media, by focusing on direct audience support.

Key Moments

The Rise of the Internet’s Creative Middle Class | Deep Questions with Cal Newport

Deep Questions with Cal Newport

People & Blogs4 min read26 min video

Jun 22, 2022|4,853 views|159|12

Cal Newport Deep Work Deep Life Deep Questions TimblockPlanner Deep Questions Podcast

Save to Pod

Key Moments

TL;DR

The internet's creative middle class is rising, reviving Kevin Kelly's '1000 True Fans' theory.

Key Insights

The "1000 True Fans" theory proposed that creators could earn a middle-class living by finding 1000 dedicated fans willing to spend $100 annually.

Initially, the internet's structure, particularly the rise of large social media monopolies and algorithmic content streams, undermined the "1000 True Fans" model by commoditizing content.

The success of platforms like Breaking Points and the rise of paid online content (subscriptions, podcasts) demonstrate a resurgence of the "1000 True Fans" concept.

Increased user comfort with paying for digital content and a growing distrust of social media have created an environment where direct creator-fan relationships can thrive.

While more opportunities exist for creators, success still requires talent, timing, and luck, but the barrier to entry has significantly lowered compared to traditional media.

The internet now offers a broader, more diverse landscape for creative individuals to make a living, moving beyond the highly centralized control of old media models.

BREAKING POINTS AS A PARADIGM FOR INTERNET NEWS

The episode begins with a discussion of the internet news show "Breaking Points," hosted by Sagar Enjeti and Krystal Ball. Their independent operation, despite a smaller overhead compared to traditional television, achieves significant viewership and financial success. This model, with its professional set, high-resolution streaming, and lean operational structure of only eight contractors, serves as a prime example of how creative endeavors can thrive online without massive traditional media infrastructure.

KEVIN KELLY'S 'A THOUSAND TRUE FANS' PROPHECY

The core of the discussion revolves around Kevin Kelly's 2008 essay, 'A Thousand True Fans.' This essay posited that in the interactive Web 2.0 era, creators could achieve a middle-class living by cultivating just 1,000 dedicated fans willing to spend $100 per year. This was a significant departure from the pre-internet era, which limited creative careers to those with access to national broadcast platforms, making it difficult for most to find a sustainable audience.

THE INITIAL FAILURE AND JARON LANIER'S CRITIQUE

Despite its aspirational promise, the '1000 True Fans' model faced immediate skepticism, notably from Jaron Lanier. Lanier argued that if this model were truly viable, there should be visible evidence of many artists achieving this success. When readers challenged to find such success stories failed, the theory was largely dismissed as overly optimistic, becoming a cautionary tale about internet utopianism that didn't materialize as predicted.

THE HIJACKING OF WEB 2.0 BY SOCIAL MEDIA MONOPOLIES

The primary reason for the failure of Kelly's theory, according to Lanier and Newport, was the structural evolution of the web. The advent of Google Ads demonstrated the profitability of embedding ads on user-generated content. This insight led large social media platforms like Facebook and Twitter to essentially 'hijack' Web 2.0. They created 'walled gardens' to control user-generated content, optimizing it for advertising revenue within algorithmic, infinite-scroll streams that prioritized passive consumption over direct engagement with creators.

THE RESURGENCE OF THE 'CREATIVE MIDDLE CLASS' MODEL

Fourteen years after its initial faltering, the '1000 True Fans' model shows signs of a comeback, exemplified by "Breaking Points." This resurgence is attributed to two significant shifts: the increased societal acceptance of paying for digital content (driven by services like Netflix and online news subscriptions) and a growing distrust of social media platforms. These factors allow creators to build direct relationships with their audiences through alternative platforms, bypassing the often-unfavorable ecosystem of social media.

NEW AVENUES FOR CREATOR MONETIZATION AND SUPPORT

The success of podcasts and independent news outlets like "Breaking Points" illustrates the revitalized '1000 True Fans' concept. With a modest but dedicated audience, creators can now earn a sustainable living, not necessarily to become wealthy, but to support their creative work. This decentralized model, facilitated by direct payment methods and a willingness to move away from social media's algorithmic control, has broadened opportunities for a more diverse range of creative professionals compared to the past.

BROADENED OPPORTUNITY AMIDST PERSISTENT CHALLENGES

While the internet has opened up more avenues for creators to make a living, the inherent difficulty, talent, and luck required for success remain. The opportunities, however, have vastly expanded beyond the narrow gateways of traditional media. Although most aspiring creators may still not achieve success, the sheer increase in the number of individuals with a viable shot at building a creative career is a positive development, leading to a richer and more diverse landscape of online creative work.

Mentioned in This Episode

●Software & Apps

●Companies

●Books

●Concepts

●People Referenced

Common Questions

It refers to individuals who can now make a sustainable living through creative work online by cultivating a dedicated audience, as predicted by Kevin Kelly's 'A Thousand True Fans' essay.

Topics

Social Media Technology & Innovation Business & Entrepreneurship Creator Economy Independent Media Audience Building Web 2.0 Digital Content Monetization Online Audience

Mentioned in this video

Books

You Are Not a Gadget

A book by Jaron Lanier that includes a chapter discussing the failure of the 'A Thousand True Fans' concept.

A Thousand True Fans

Kevin Kelly's 2008 essay that theorized creators could make a middle-class living by finding 1,000 loyal fans willing to spend $100 annually.

A World Without Email

A book by Cal Newport for which Kevin Kelly provided a blurb.

The Hill

A publication where Sagar and Crystal previously worked and hosted a show called 'Rising'.

So Good They Can't Ignore You

A book by Cal Newport for which Kevin Kelly provided a blurb.

Software & Apps

Supercast

A platform that creators can use to offer subscriptions and interact directly with their audience, bypassing traditional social media.

Mailchimp

An email marketing service mentioned as part of the ecosystem enabling creators to connect directly with their subscribers.

Wired

A magazine where Kevin Kelly previously worked and to which he contributed an article on artificial intelligence.

Google AdSense

An advertising program that allowed individuals to embed ads on their websites, contributing to the monetization of user-generated content, but also leading to platform dominance.

People

Jaron Lanier

A prominent critic of the internet's trajectory, who initially pushed back on Kevin Kelly's 'A Thousand True Fans' concept, arguing it wasn't panning out.

Joe Rogan

Mentioned as someone who has given exposure to Breaking Points, helping them grow.

Crystal Ball

Co-host of the internet news show Breaking Points, highlighted as an example of the success of the 'creative middle class'.

Kevin Kelly

Authored the influential 2008 essay 'A Thousand True Fans,' which predicted the internet's ability to support creative professionals.

Organizations

MSNBC

News channel where Crystal Ball previously hosted a show.

The New Yorker

The publication where Cal Newport's article 'The Rise of the Internet's Creative Middle Class' was featured.

Companies

Netflix

A subscription streaming service that has normalized paying for digital content, contributing to the viability of models like 'A Thousand True Fans'.

Instagram

A social media platform that, like Facebook, contributed to the shift towards algorithmic feeds and away from direct creator-fan interaction.

Twitter

A social media platform cited as an early adopter of algorithmic, streaming-style content delivery which de-emphasized individual creators.

Facebook

A social media platform that, along with others, was seen as hijacking Web 2.0 and optimizing for ad revenue, leading to algorithmic feeds that de-emphasized individual creators.

The Daily Caller

News publication where Sagar previously worked as a White House correspondent.

Concepts

Artificial Intelligence

A topic Kevin Kelly wrote a prophetic article about for Wired several years ago.

Media

Breaking Points

An internet news show hosted by Sagar and Crystal, used as a prime example of the 'internet's creative middle class' succeeding.