Key Moments
The Man Who Will Be King: A Conversation with Graeme Wood (Episode #278)
Sam HarrisKey Moments
Graeme Wood discusses MBS's reforms, authoritarianism, and Saudi Arabia's complex role in global politics.
Key Insights
Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) is positioning Saudi Arabia for modernization but maintains absolute power, creating a complex geopolitical dynamic.
The Jamal Khashoggi murder highlights MBS's ruthlessness and poses significant challenges to Saudi Arabia's international relations.
MBS uses a dual strategy of social and economic reforms alongside severe repression of dissent, exemplified by the Ritz-Carlton detentions.
Saudi Arabia views Iran as a primary rival, aligning with certain Western interests despite significant differences in values and governance.
Vision 2030 aims to transform Saudi Arabia into a modern, diversified economy and society, reducing reliance on oil and embracing entertainment and tourism.
The US faces a difficult balancing act, needing to engage with Saudi Arabia on shared interests while condemning its human rights record and authoritarian practices.
THE ASCENSION AND PROFILE OF MBS
Graeme Wood introduces Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) as the de facto ruler of Saudi Arabia and the likely future king. As the first of his generation to be in line for the throne, MBS, at 36, has been tasked by his aging father, King Salman, with modernizing the kingdom. His leadership is characterized by ambitious reforms aimed at integrating Saudi Arabia into the global economy and bringing it into the 21st century, yet his rule remains firmly autocratic, lacking significant political liberalization.
GEOPOLITICAL STRATEGIES AND THE IRANIAN RIVALRY
MBS is presented as a key figure in regional geopolitics, particularly as a bulwark against Iran. Saudi Arabia, a Sunni-majority nation, views Shiite Iran as a significant threat, a stance that aligns with certain U.S. interests. However, this alliance is fraught with challenges, as Saudi Arabia does not share many democratic values with the U.S., necessitating a pragmatic, albeit uncomfortable, partnership to counter Iranian influence in the region.
THE KHASHOGGI MURDER AND ITS REPERCUSSIONS
The brutal murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi brought MBS to international attention and significantly damaged Saudi Arabia's reputation. Wood recounts his personal acquaintance with Khashoggi and the unsettling experience of interviewing MBS in the aftermath. Despite MBS's denials and attempts to distance himself, the incident serves as a stark reminder of the crown prince's capacity for extreme measures and the risks involved in confronting his regime.
AUTHORITARIAN REFORMS AND THE RITZ-CARLTON SHOWDOWN
A defining moment of MBS's consolidation of power was the 2017 imprisonment of numerous Saudi elites, including royals and businessmen, at the Ritz-Carlton. This action is described as a forceful anti-corruption campaign, where individuals were pressured to forfeit vast sums of wealth in exchange for their freedom. While popular with many Saudis who viewed their government as corrupt, it also exemplified MBS's willingness to use extrajudicial means to assert control.
REPRESSION AMID REFORM: THE CASE OF LUJAIN AL-HATLOUL
The case of activist Lujain al-Hathloul, imprisoned for advocating women's right to drive, illustrates the complex and often contradictory nature of MBS's reforms. While he enacted policies he allegedly supported, such as legalizing women's driving, he also punished vocal advocates. This suggests that for MBS, rights are granted by the monarch, not inherent, and challenging this principle is seen as treason, even if the policy itself is embraced.
VISION 2030: MODERNIZATION AND SOCIAL TRANSFORMATION
Vision 2030 is MBS's ambitious blueprint to transform Saudi Arabia into a modern, diversified economy and society by 2030. This plan aims to reduce the kingdom's reliance on oil, foster tourism and entertainment, and decrease corruption. Reforms include curbing the power of the religious police, allowing public concerts, and loosening social restrictions. The goal is to make Saudi Arabia more akin to modern global hubs like Dubai, moving away from its historically conservative and restrictive past.
RELATIONS WITH ISRAEL AND THE U.S. FOREIGN POLICY DILEMMA
Wood notes MBS's willingness to see Israel as a potential friend, a significant shift in Saudi foreign policy, though full normalization has not yet occurred. The U.S. faces a dilemma regarding its relationship with Saudi Arabia, particularly under the Biden administration, which has adopted a hostile posture towards MBS following the Khashoggi murder. Wood argues for a pragmatic approach, encouraging positive reforms while acknowledging that complete alignment with U.S. values is unlikely.
SAUDI ECONOMIC DIVERSIFICATION AND ENERGY POLICY
The Saudi economy, long dominated by oil exports, is undergoing efforts to nationalize and diversify. Wood observed Saudis taking on roles previously filled by foreign workers, though the success of this transition remains to be seen. For the foreseeable future, oil revenue will continue to be the kingdom's primary source of power and wealth, influencing its geopolitical leverage, particularly in relation to global energy markets and events like the war in Ukraine.
DEPROGRAMMING JIHADISTS: A UNIQUE APPROACH
An unusual aspect of Saudi Arabia's counter-terrorism efforts, as observed by Wood, is the program at the Ha'ir prison aimed at deprogramming jihadists. While acknowledging the limitations of speaking with incarcerated individuals, Wood describes Saudi efforts to reintegrate former extremists by challenging their ideologies. This initiative, alongside other reforms, forms part of MBS's broader strategy to reshape the kingdom's religious and social landscape.
Mentioned in This Episode
●Companies
●Organizations
●Books
●Concepts
●People Referenced
Common Questions
Mohammed bin Salman, or MBS, is the Crown Prince and de facto ruler of Saudi Arabia. At 36 years old, he is the first of his generation poised to become king and has been leading a significant modernization effort to integrate Saudi Arabia into the global economy, though without political reform.
Topics
Mentioned in this video
Saudi Arabia's geopolitical rival, described as a Shia jihadist state.
A staunch Saudi ally to which Al Walid bin Talal has traveled.
A city model that MBS aims for Saudi Arabia to emulate or surpass with Vision 2030.
A prison in Saudi Arabia where the speaker visited to observe the deprogramming of jihadists.
Saudi Arabia's relationship with Israel is discussed, with MBS seeing potential for friendship.
A state that Saudi Arabia has had issues with, with accusations of terrorism and supporting the Muslim Brotherhood.
One of the holy places of Islam located in Saudi Arabia, which complicates normalization with Israel.
The war in Ukraine is mentioned as a topic of discussion.
One of the holy places of Islam located in Saudi Arabia, which complicates normalization with Israel.
Female activist imprisoned for advocating women's right to drive, despite MBS's eventual reform.
Mentioned in the context of MBS's alleged ability to hack phones and exert influence at a distance.
Former President of Syria, used as a comparison to MBS regarding initial positive perceptions versus later oppressive actions.
Crown Prince and de facto ruler of Saudi Arabia, the central figure of the discussion.
Mentioned as a strange case related to jihadism.
Host of the Making Sense podcast.
Staff writer at The Atlantic and author interviewed on the podcast.
One of the richest men in Saudi Arabia, imprisoned and seemingly restricted after a deal during the Ritz-Carlton episode.
Musician mentioned in the context of Bashar al-Assad's perceived positive traits that did not preclude his later atrocities.
A Saudi journalist murdered in 2018, whose death brought MBS to international attention.
Used as a reference point for the scale of Al Walid bin Talal's wealth.
An Islamist organization that Saudi Arabia has accused Qatar of supporting and attempting to put in power.
Location where Saudi elites were imprisoned in 2017. Also a hotel chain.
Mentioned for having made itself invasion-proof.
A militant group discussed in the context of Saudi Arabia's opposition and deprogramming efforts.
Publication where Graeme Wood works and published his article on MBS.
The current US presidential administration whose posture towards MBS is discussed.
A jihadist group whose members were present in Ha'ir Prison.
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