What is 'Out of Control' about and how does it relate to the Santa Fe Institute?

Kevin Kelly's first book, 'Out of Control,' explores complex adaptive systems, drawing inspiration from a conference he attended at Los Alamos and Santa Fe Institute. It posits that biological systems and complex technologies like the internet share similar dynamics, treating phenomena like spam as an invading virus requiring an immune system approach, and seeing machines as subject to biological principles. (Timestamp: 709)

Why did 'The Silver Cord' graphic novel take 11 years to create?

'The Silver Cord,' a graphic novel about angels yearning for human embodiment and cheating to inhabit robots, took 11 years due to its ambitious scale (initially conceived as one large 'Lord of the Rings'-style work) and challenges with publishers. It aimed to nudge readers to appreciate their physical existence more profoundly. (Timestamp: 988)

What is the key message of Kevin Kelly's '1000 True Fans' essay?

'1000 True Fans' argues that creators can achieve success by cultivating a modest but dedicated audience who will buy anything they produce. It provides a viable alternative to seeking mass popularity and emphasizes the power of accumulating fans one by one. Kelly stresses that while it offers financial stability, maintaining these relationships requires significant time and effort. (Timestamp: 1322)

What happened to Kevin Kelly's campaign to discover all Earth's species?

In the early 2000s, Kevin Kelly and Stewart Brand launched the All Species Foundation to catalog all life on Earth. The project failed to meet its original goal primarily because the necessary technology for rapid species identification (like AI-powered apps) was 25 years ahead of its time. It also revealed a surprising lack of a centralized, digitized catalog of already known species, making their initial task much harder. (Timestamp: 1621)

What is Kevin Kelly's argument for optimism?

Kevin Kelly promotes 'active optimism,' viewing it as a deliberate choice and a necessary mindset for creating complex, good things. He emphasizes that while identifying problems is easy, envisioning and believing in successful, improbable outcomes drives progress. His optimism is rooted in historical progress, suggesting that society is, on average, a better place to live than any time in the past due to human ingenuity and the collective will of optimists. (Timestamp: 2220)

How does Kevin Kelly differentiate between types of growth in the context of degrowth arguments?

Kelly distinguishes between two types of 'growth': expansive growth (adding more 'stuff', like more pounds or more refrigerators) and growth as increasing complexity (development, maturing, knowledge growth). He suggests that as populations may decrease, economies can shift towards increasing the quality of things rather than just the quantity, representing a different, sustainable model of progress. This is tied to the concept of 'exotropy' or increasing order. (Timestamp: 2821)

How does Kevin Kelly describe his 'time machine' experience and its lesson?

In 1975, Kevin Kelly took a 20-hour bus ride into Northern Afghanistan, arriving in a remote town without electricity or modern signage, which felt like stepping into a different century. This 'time machine' experience revealed that the greatest gift of technology and development is the expansion of choices and options for individuals, contrasting with the limited, fated roles of people in a feudal, pre-technological society. (Timestamp: 3040)

Will AI cause widespread unemployment, according to Kevin Kelly?

Kevin Kelly argues that generative AI will replace many tasks, not necessarily entire jobs. He views AI as providing 'universal personal interns' that perform initial work, which artists and professionals then refine and curate. He asserts that, so far, no human has lost their general job due to AI, rather their roles are shifting to incorporate AI tools, often filling previously 'blank' creative spaces rather than displacing existing work. (Timestamp: 3356)

Why does Kevin Kelly believe AI is currently 'under-hyped' despite its recent explosion?

Kelly compares the current state of AI to the early internet before the World Wide Web. While powerful AI capabilities have existed for years, specialized conversational interfaces (like large language models and image generators) have made AI accessible and 'in our faces.' This newfound accessibility, much like visual web pages for the internet, is poised to embed AI into 'everything,' making its long-term transformative impact underestimated. (Timestamp: 4238)

What is the origin story of Kevin Kelly's book 'Excellent Advice for Living'?

The book originated from Kevin Kelly's practice of writing down short, encapsulated bits of advice to help him change his own behavior. Recognizing these 'handles' could benefit others, especially his children, he compiled them. The advice is designed to be practical, actionable, positive, and concise, making it easily repeatable and 'tweetable.' (Timestamp: 5181)

What is Kevin Kelly's advice for career success, encapsulated as 'Don't aim to be the best, be the only'?

Kevin Kelly advises people, especially in their 20s, to pursue 'crazy, insane, unprofitable, unorthodox' passions. The ultimate goal is to find a unique niche where you are 'the only' one doing what you do, rather than competing to be 'the best' in a crowded field. This requires deep self-knowledge and often a life of detours, but eliminates competition and makes work feel effortless. (Timestamp: 5552)

What are Kevin Kelly's best tips for investing time with children?

Kelly recommends making things together with children, fostering cooperation, problem-solving, and overcoming frustrations. He also champions learning-oriented travel, encouraging families to follow a child's passions (e.g., dinosaurs, Anne of Green Gables) rather than fixed destinations, and involving children in the decision-making process for adventures. (Timestamp: 5815)

Why does Kevin Kelly recommend sabbaticals and how should one approach them?

Kevin Kelly is a huge advocate for sabbaticals, seeing them as essential for creative life, rejuvenation, and shifting perspective, akin to sleep. He suggests a minimum of six weeks, emphasizing that a sabbatical should involve a 'different rhythm and a different mode' from one's normal routine, such as dedicating time solely to reading or observing others' work without producing anything. (Timestamp: 6505)

Why is Kevin Kelly so popular in China?

Kevin Kelly's popularity in China began accidentally when his early 90s book, 'Out of Control,' was crowdsourced and translated into Chinese around 2006. It became hugely influential for entrepreneurs like Jack Ma and Pony Ma, who recommended it widely. Chinese audiences were highly receptive to his ideas about technology and the future, actively listening and executing on his insights. (Timestamp: 7104)

Key Moments

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Key Moments

TL;DR

Kevin Kelly shares life lessons on AI, population, creativity, and living authentically.

Key Insights

The global human population is likely to peak and then decline, with significant societal implications.

Complex adaptive systems provide a powerful framework for understanding both biological and technological phenomena.

The '1000 True Fans' concept offers a viable alternative to mainstream success, focusing on a dedicated audience.

AI is currently analogous to universal personal interns, augmenting rather than replacing jobs, and will become increasingly specialized.

Cultivating optimism, particularly active optimism, is crucial for innovation and shaping the future.

Living authentically and 'fully becoming yourself' is life's primary goal, enabled by tools and experiences.

THE IMPENDING POPULATION SHIFT AND COMPLEX SYSTEMS

Kevin Kelly discusses his 'long bet' which predicted a plateau and subsequent decline in global human population by 2060, driven by falling birth rates and resource scarcity. He contrasts this with historical trends of rising living standards often correlating with population growth, highlighting our lack of experience with a shrinking global population. This discussion naturally leads into the concept of complex adaptive systems, a framework Kelly explored in his early work, which views biological and technological systems as having similar dynamics and interconnectedness, a perspective influenced by institutions like the Santa Fe Institute.

CREATIVITY, STORYTELLING, AND THE '1000 TRUE FANS' MODEL

Kelly delves into his 11-year project, 'The Silver Cord,' a graphic novel about angels and robots, explaining the genre's appeal for visualizing complex ideas. He emphasizes storytelling's power to inspire, nudging people to appreciate embodied existence and the influence it affords. His most popular essay, '1000 True Fans,' is revisited; its resonance stems from offering a realistic alternative to mass-market success, a concept validated by emerging platforms like Kickstarter and Patreon, though it requires significant effort in cultivating fan relationships.

THE CHALLENGE OF CATALOGING LIFE AND THE PROMISE OF REVIVAL

The conversation touches on Kelly's 'failed' campaign to discover all Earth's species. The initiative, aimed at leveraging technology and local knowledge, revealed how far behind we were even in cataloging known species. This highlights the technological limitations of the time, which have since been partially addressed by modern identification apps. The discussion also explores the emerging field of 'de-extinction' through programs like Revive & Restore, mentioning efforts to bring back species like the woolly mammoth, showcasing humanity's growing capacity to interact with and potentially reshape the natural world.

OPTIMISM AS A CATALYST FOR PROGRESS AND THE ROLE OF TECHNOLOGY

Kelly argues for optimism not as a passive temperament, but as an active, imaginative force essential for creation. He defines progress as an overall improvement in the human condition, citing historical trajectories that suggest a positive momentum. He posits that technology, while presenting challenges and leading to breakdowns (the probable outcome), is crucial for building better, more complex systems (the improbable). Technology's ultimate value, he contends, lies in its ability to provide choices and enable individuals to 'fully become themselves.'

AI AS A UNIVERSAL INTERN AND THE FUTURE OF CREATIVITY

Discussing generative AI, Kelly clarifies that current AI acts as 'universal personal interns,' augmenting tasks rather than eliminating entire jobs. He maintains that no one has yet lost a job solely due to AI, but rather tasks within jobs are being automated. The advent of user-friendly interfaces, like conversational AI, has made these powerful tools accessible, akin to the web's visual revolution. AI is expected to become increasingly specialized, serving as unseen infrastructure and enabling new forms of creativity and personal expression, such as assisting with writing and generating unique imagery.

PRACTICAL ADVICE FOR LIVING AND 'BECOMING YOURSELF'

Kelly shares distilled wisdom from his book 'Excellent Advice for Living,' emphasizing actionable, non-conventional, and positive guidance. Key insights include the importance of adequate space for outdoor living areas, the greater impact of actions on 'bad days,' and the idea of aiming to 'be the only' rather than 'the best.' He advocates for the deliberate inclusion of 'crazy, insane, unprofitable' pursuits in one's 20s and stresses the value of sabbaticals, rest, and simple activities like watching people work on YouTube as crucial for rejuvenation, perspective, and fostering creativity.

Mentioned in This Episode

●Software & Apps

●Companies

●Organizations

●Books

●Concepts

●People Referenced

Kevin Kelly's Excellent Advice for Living: A Quick Guide

Practical takeaways from this episode

Do This

Put things back where you first looked for them, not where you found them.

Ask yourself if you would do something 'tomorrow morning' to filter commitments.

For children, double the time spent with them and halve the money you think you should spend.

Engage children in making decisions for vacations and activities to increase engagement.

Actively seek out what others know more about than you to learn new things.

Strive to be 'the only' in your niche, rather than 'the best' in a crowded field.

Practice tying a bowline knot in the dark with one hand.

Treat your hometown like a tourist once a year by reading guidebooks and visiting landmarks.

Explain your problems to others as part of your troubleshooting process.

Prioritize maximizing time spent on activities you love, rather than minimizing time on disliked tasks.

Take regular sabbaticals or periods of rest with a different rhythm/mode than your normal routine.

Use AI as a 'universal personal intern' for generating first drafts, ideas, or headlines, and refine its output.

Cultivate 'active optimism' by believing things can be done and working to make them happen.

Avoid This

Don't put things back where you found them if it's not where you'd first look for them.

Don't accept commitments you wouldn't be excited about doing tomorrow morning.

Don't assume children aren't paying attention on trips; they may process experiences later.

Don't let the 'noise' of others' opinions or traditional paths dictate your unique calling.

Don't shy away from 'crazy, insane, unprofitable, unorthodox' experiences in your 20s.

Don't marry a person without considering their family (or even culture/species).

Don't over-rely on 'thinkism'; use technology to discover capabilities through use.

Don't underestimate the power of conversational interfaces in AI.

Don't get trapped in a long-term job without taking time off or 'goofing off'.

Common Questions

In 2003, Kevin Kelly made a 'long bet' that the global human population by 2060 would be the same as it was in 2003, indicating a peak and subsequent decline due to falling birth rates worldwide, despite historical links between rising living standards and population growth. He highlights that projections for this peak are constantly being revised, generally moving closer in time. (Timestamp: 295)

Topics

Ai-Ethics Mindset & Self-Improvement AI & Machine Learning Technology & Innovation Creative Process Personal Growth Long-term Thinking Future Predictions Parenting Philosophy Active Optimism Learning Acceleration Population Demographics

Mentioned in this video

Companies

23andMe

Kevin Kelly's wife's current company that has an official sabbatical program.

Google

Its AI tools, like Bing (which includes ChatGPT-like features), are used by Kevin Kelly for drafting content.

Twitter

A social media platform where Kevin Kelly can be found at @Kevin2Kelly.

MTV

Music television channel, mentioned in context of Kevin Kelly making a music video 12 years before its launch.

Pixar

An animation studio where some of Kevin Kelly's graphic novel collaborators worked.

Industrial Light & Magic

A visual effects company where some of Kevin Kelly's graphic novel collaborators worked.

Simon & Schuster

Publisher that initially gave an advance for 'The Silver Cord' graphic novel.

YouTube

Described as an 'accelerant on learning' where Kevin Kelly watches people work on various crafts and where brain surgeons share techniques.

Genesect

One of Kevin Kelly's wife's former companies that had an official sabbatical program.

People

Paul Erlich

Biologist and author of 'The Population Bomb', mentioned as being on the opposite side of Kevin Kelly's population growth views.

E.O. Wilson

Legendary biologist involved in the Encyclopedia of Life project before his passing.

George Church

Scientist who accompanied Stewart Brand and Kevin Kelly to Siberia to collect mammoth samples for DNA.

John Vervaeke

A recent podcast guest on the Tim Ferriss Show, whose interview was used as an example for AI-generated questions.

Jack Ma

Co-founder of Alibaba, whose early internet ventures were influenced by Kevin Kelly's book, 'Out of Control'.

Pony Ma

Co-founder of Tencent, whose early internet ventures were influenced by Kevin Kelly's book, 'Out of Control'.

Matt Mullenweg

A mutual friend of Tim Ferriss and Kevin Kelly, CEO of Automattic and co-founder of WordPress.

Warren Buffett

An investor who participated in Long Bets, winning a million-dollar wager that index funds would beat hedge funds.

Bill Gurley

Mentioned as someone involved with complex adaptive systems who has had conversations with Tim Ferriss.

Murray Gell-Mann

The prime mover behind the Santa Fe Institute, who liked Los Alamos and was instrumental in its funding.

Jaron Lanier

Pioneer of virtual reality, whom Kevin Kelly saw demonstrate VR in the late 80s.

Paul Ehrlich

Author of 'The Population Bomb', mentioned as being on the opposite side of the population argument from Kevin Kelly's bet.

Danny Hillis

Co-founder of the Long Now Foundation with Kevin Kelly and Peter Schwartz.

Peter Schwartz

Co-founder of the Long Now Foundation with Kevin Kelly and Danny Hillis.

Richard Feynman

Physicist whose writings Tim Ferriss has been revisiting, and who was part of the Los Alamos scientific community.

Stewart Brand

Founder of the Whole Earth Catalog, Kevin Kelly's mentor, co-founder of the Long Now Foundation, and key figure in launching the All Species Foundation and Revive & Restore.

Steve Jobs

Famously called the Whole Earth Catalog 'the internet before there was an internet'.

John Markoff

New York Times Tech writer who wrote a recent biography about Stewart Brand.

David Allen

Creator of the 'Getting Things Done' (GTD) methodology, whose approach to productivity Kevin Kelly offers a counter-perspective on.

Organizations

Wired (magazine)

Kevin Kelly helped launch and edit this magazine, and is currently a senior Maverick.

B612 Foundation

An organization dedicated to tracking asteroids and planetary defense, named after The Little Prince's asteroid.

New York Times

A publication Kevin Kelly has written for.

Long Now Foundation

An organization co-chaired by Kevin Kelly that is building a 10,000-year clock. They also launched the Long Bets service to encourage long-term thinking.

Mexico

A country aging faster than the U.S., implying a potential return of immigrants.

All Species Foundation

A foundation started by Kevin Kelly and Stewart Brand to catalog all living species on Earth, but was ahead of its time technologically.

Revive & Restore

A program founded by Stewart Brand and Ryan Phelan focused on de-extinction, with the woolly mammoth as its totem animal.

Santa Fe Institute

Pioneering research institute for complex adaptive systems, influencing Kevin Kelly's first book, 'Out of Control'.

Los Alamos

Site of a conference that initiated Kevin Kelly's first book; many physicists from the Manhattan Project remained there.

Books

Excellent Advice for Living: Wisdom I Wish I'd Known Earlier

Kevin Kelly's new book, a collection of practical, actionable, and short advice.

Out of Control: The New Biology of Machines, Social Systems, and the Economic World

Kevin Kelly's 1994 classic book on decentralized immersion systems and complex adaptive systems, which was influential in China.

The Silver Cord

A graphic novel about robots and angels, created by Kevin Kelly over 11 years, exploring the value of embodiment.

What Technology Wants

Kevin Kelly's book presenting a robust theory of technology.

Vanishing Asia

Kevin Kelly's 50-year photography project to document disappearing cultures in Asia, weighing 30 pounds.

Whole Earth Catalog

An influential information guide invented by Stewart Brand, pre-dating the internet, described as an 'internet printed on newsprint'.

The Little Prince

Children's book referenced as the namesake of the B612 Foundation.

Ready Player One

A novel about virtual reality referenced when discussing the slow pace of VR progress in the real world compared to predictions.

The Inevitable: Understanding the 12 Technological Forces That Will Shape Our Future

A New York Times bestseller by Kevin Kelly, focusing on future technological trends.

Cool Tools

Kevin Kelly's weekly podcast, dedicated to cool stuff.

Minority Report

A science fiction film where Kevin Kelly received a screen credit for working with Steven Spielberg on sci-fi concepts.

Anne of Green Gables

A popular children's/young adult story that inspired a family vacation theme to Nova Scotia.

Products

transistor

A concept related to technologies that improve but don't get 'better' exponentially, becoming cheaper and more pervasive instead, similar to VR.

Software & Apps

Discord

The interface used by Midjourney, which Kevin Kelly praises for its open and collaborative learning environment.

Kickstarter

Platform used by Kevin Kelly to release his graphic novel The Silver Cord and a platform that didn't exist when he first conceived of the '1000 True Fans' idea.

Merlin

A phone app that identifies bird songs, cited as an example of technology that would have aided the All Species Foundation.

iNaturalist

A community science app, implied to be the 'iSeek' mentioned, which identifies plants and mushrooms, another example of enabling technology for species cataloging.

ChatGPT

A specific AI large language model that Tim Ferriss mentioned using for generating podcast questions and Kevin Kelly uses for first drafts and headlines.

Midjourney

An AI image generator with a "curious" Discord interface, primarily used by Kevin Kelly for his daily AI art posts.

Procreate

An iPad app Kevin Kelly used for daily art before switching to AI image generators, noting he spent similar amounts of time on both.

Recomendo

Kevin Kelly's free one-page weekly newsletter containing six brief recommendations of cool stuff.

The WELL

The first online access to the internet, co-founded by Stewart Brand.

Encyclopedia of Life

A central integrated comprehensive catalog of known species that the All Species Foundation's digitizing efforts contributed to.

Media

Wall Street Journal

Another publication Kevin Kelly has written for.

This American Life

A radio program where Kevin Kelly's story of religious conversion was featured.

Jurassic Park

Film franchise referenced jokingly in the context of de-extinction efforts.

Locations

South Korea

Mentioned as the country with currently the lowest birth rate.

Japan

A country famously experiencing a decline in population, not just a lower birth rate.

China

A country where population is aging, and where Kevin Kelly has a large fan base and influence.

Nova Scotia

Canadian province, the setting for Anne of Green Gables, chosen for a family vacation based on a child's interest.

Concepts

Woolly Mammoth

The totem animal for Revive & Restore, aimed for de-extinction by 'winterizing' Asian elephants through accelerated breeding.

1,000 True Fans

Kevin Kelly's most popular article, discussing how creators can make a living with a modest-sized audience.

Asian Elephant

Current species being used as a genetic base to 'winterize' and potentially resurrect woolly mammoths.

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