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How to ACTUALLY Achieve Your Goals (Backed by Science)
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Visualizing success makes you perform worse, but deliberately visualizing failure primes you to succeed. The catch? You have to face the brutal facts of reality.
Key Insights
The more vividly individuals fantasize about success, the worse they perform, as demonstrated by a 2002 NYU study where graduates who fantasized about their dream jobs sent fewer applications and received fewer offers.
A University of Pennsylvania study found that women who most positively fantasized about their future selves in weight loss programs lost 24 pounds less in one year compared to those who pictured the process going badly.
The practice of 'premeditatio malorum,' or premeditation of evils, advocated by Stoics like Seneca, involves rehearsing worst-case scenarios to reduce their impact when they occur.
A 2011 study in the Journal of Positive Psychology showed that individuals randomly assigned to vividly imagine their own death reported significantly more gratitude for their current life compared to a control group.
UCLA psychologists found that visualizing the *process* of studying led to more hours studied, less panic, and higher exam scores, while visualizing the *outcome* (getting an A) showed no improvement.
Announcing identity goals publicly leads to quitting sooner, with individuals who kept their goals private working nearly the full session on a task, while those who announced their goals quit around 33 minutes, experiencing a 'premature sense of completeness'.
The counterintuitive science of fantasizing about success
Contrary to popular 'manifestation' teachings, such as 'The Secret,' which suggest that visualizing success will bring it into reality, scientific research indicates the opposite. A 2002 study by NYU psychologists tracked college graduates entering the job market and found that those who spent the most time engaged in positive fantasies about landing their dream job actually sent out fewer applications, received fewer job offers, and earned lower salaries two years later. This suggests that vivid fantasies about success can lead to underperformance. The research distinguished between high expectations, which are grounded in evidence and reality, and fantasies, which are pleasant visualizations unhooked from any evidence. High expectations led to better outcomes, while fantasies led to worse ones. This phenomenon is explained by the brain's physiological response: indulging in positive fantasies causes blood pressure to drop, a signature of the body powering down, essentially treating the fantasy as a partial reward before the work is done, thus draining the drive for actual effort. Manifestation, therefore, acts as anesthesia, not fuel.
Embracing the 'funeral' to prime for success
The contrarian approach involves deliberately visualizing failure, a practice humans have explored for centuries. This can be termed 'rehearsing the funeral.' Ancient Buddhist monks practiced 'mindfulness of death' (maranasati), contemplating their mortality and the decay of the body to gain perspective on life. Similarly, Stoic philosophers like Seneca advocated for 'premeditatio malorum,' the premeditation of evils, urging students to mentally rehearse worst-case scenarios like exile or poverty. The logic is that by mentally preparing for adversity, its impact is lessened when it inevitably occurs. Modern research supports this; a 2011 study in the Journal of Positive Psychology found that participants who vividly imagined their own death reported greater gratitude for their current lives, demonstrating that confronting worst-case scenarios can enhance appreciation for present realities.
A five-step anti-manifestation process for business
Applying these principles to business, an 'anti-manifestation' process can be implemented. It begins with writing an obituary for your business, detailing its specific demise (e.g., running out of money, a specific lawsuit). Next, identify the exact causes of this hypothetical death, moving beyond generic reasons to pinpoint specific fears or weaknesses. The third step is a 'survival check': asking if you would still be alive and able to work after the business's failure. This exercise aims to shrink fear by naming it and demonstrating survivability. The fourth step is to extract systems from the identified causes of death, turning each failure point into a directive for what to do next (e.g., if client concentration killed the business, establish a rule that no single client can exceed 20% of revenue). Finally, create a rule that makes the obituary impossible, such as ensuring sufficient cash reserves or a line of credit. This process should be revisited quarterly to catch potential issues early, as businesses often drift towards failure quietly.
The power of process over outcome visualization
A critical swap in goal achievement is shifting focus from visualizing the outcome to visualizing the process. In an experiment with college students before a midterm, one group visualized getting an 'A,' while another visualized the steps of studying: where they would sit, which chapters to cover, and how they would study. A control group simply tracked their studying. The outcome visualization group showed no improvement over the control. However, the process group studied more hours, experienced less panic, and scored higher. Researchers found this was due to better planning and lower anxiety. This highlights the importance of mentally rehearsing the workout rather than just the victory. The focus should be on the actions required to reach the goal, not just the end result.
Keeping goals private until results are achieved
Manifestation culture often encourages announcing goals publicly to 'speak them into existence.' However, scientific evidence suggests the opposite is more effective. Four experiments conducted by NYU psychologists found that when people announced identity goals (like 'I am becoming a founder') out loud, they were less likely to complete them. In a lab setting, individuals who kept their goals private worked nearly the entire allotted time, whereas those whose goals were acknowledged by others quit around 33 minutes. This happens because public acknowledgment creates a 'premature sense of completeness'—social validation acts as a form of 'payment' that satisfies the brain before the actual work is done. Therefore, the advice is to keep goals private and share only the results once they are achieved. This avoids the psychological reward of applause before the reward of accomplishment.
Seeking evidence from the market, not the universe
Instead of asking the universe for signs, successful builders seek evidence from the market. The story of Zappos founder Nick Swinmer illustrates this. Unable to find his specific shoe size and color, he hypothesized people would buy shoes online. Instead of manifesting a shoe empire, he made a deal with a local shoe store to photograph their inventory, list it online, and buy pairs at retail price to fulfill orders. He lost money on each initial sale but gained crucial market evidence. When orders came in, his assumption was validated, leading to the creation of Zappos. The lesson is to identify the core assumption of your dream (e.g., 'people will pay for this') and design the cheapest way to get real feedback from actual customers, such as a single offer email or a weekend of manual service delivery, rather than relying on abstract signs from the universe.
The WHOOP framework for bridging wish and action
Bridging the gap between wishing and doing requires a structured approach, often summarized by the WHOOP framework: Wish, Outcome, Obstacle, Plan. This method starts by naming the wish and briefly feeling the desired outcome. The crucial step, often skipped by wishful thinkers, is to name the single biggest obstacle that will prevent you from achieving the wish. Finally, create an 'if-then' plan for the exact moment that obstacle appears. For example, 'If the client pushes back on the new price, then I will pause for 10 seconds before responding.' This structured planning, as evidenced by studies showing increased physical activity in those using this method, helps convert abstract desires into actionable steps, effectively turning 'wishful thinkers' into 'goal killers'—individuals who systematically build towards their objectives by confronting and planning for reality.
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Anti-Manifestation Strategies for Goal Achievement
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Common Questions
Visualizing success can trick your brain into feeling like the goal has already been achieved, releasing dopamine and reducing the drive to do the actual work. Studies show positive fantasies lead to fewer applications and lower salaries.
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Mentioned in this video
A book that claims visualizing wealth hard enough will lead to its attainment, which the speaker contrasts with scientific research.
A journal that published a 2011 study where participants vividly imagined their own death, leading to increased gratitude.
The speaker's book, which outlines anti-manifestation strategies for business and is mentioned as containing the five-step process.
Mentioned as a friend who told the speaker about the Buddhist practice of mindfulness of death.
An Admiral and prisoner of war in Vietnam whose experience highlighted the danger of unfounded optimism and the importance of confronting brutal facts.
A management consultant who interviewed Admiral James Stockdale about his experiences as a POW.
Founder of Amazon, cited for his realistic approach to investors, acknowledging a high chance of failure for his initial funding.
The e-commerce giant founded by Jeff Bezos, used as an example of a business that priced in failure and achieved massive success.
An online shoe retailer founded by Nick Swinmer, which started as a test of selling shoes online and was later acquired by Amazon.
A wearable device/system mentioned as a tool for the Wish, Outcome, Obstacle, Plan (WOOP) method, which helps bridge the gap between wishing and doing.
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