Pascal's Mugging
philosophical thought experiment: “A mugger, who forgot his weapon, proposes a deal to Pascal: ‘you give me your wallet, and I will give you N times the money, where N is large enough to compensate for the low probability of me honoring the deal’”
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Videos Mentioning Pascal's Mugging
How Much Does the Future Matter?: A Conversation with William MacAskill (Episode #292)
Sam Harris
A thought experiment illustrating how small probabilities of extremely large gains can lead to counter-intuitive or absurd decisions if expected value theory is applied without bounds.
Will MacAskill Interview (Full Episode) | The Tim Ferriss Show (Podcast)
Tim Ferriss
A thought experiment similar to Pascal's Wager but without infinite stakes, illustrating how rational decision-making based purely on expected value can lead to seemingly absurd actions when low probabilities are combined with very large, but finite, payoffs.
Will MacAskill of Effective Altruism Fame — The Value of Longtermism, AI, and How to Save the World
Tim Ferriss
A thought experiment related to Pascal's Wager, briefly mentioned.