Pascal's Mugging
Concept
A thought experiment illustrating how small probabilities of extremely large gains can lead to counter-intuitive or absurd decisions if expected value theory is applied without bounds.
Mentioned in 2 videos
Videos Mentioning Pascal's Mugging
How Much Does the Future Matter?: A Conversation with William MacAskill (Episode #292)
Sam Harris
A thought experiment illustrating how small probabilities of extremely large gains can lead to counter-intuitive or absurd decisions if expected value theory is applied without bounds.
Will MacAskill Interview (Full Episode) | The Tim Ferriss Show (Podcast)
Tim Ferriss
A thought experiment similar to Pascal's Wager but without infinite stakes, illustrating how rational decision-making based purely on expected value can lead to seemingly absurd actions when low probabilities are combined with very large, but finite, payoffs.