Key Moments

E79: Analyzing the leaked draft overturning Roe v. Wade with Amy Howe and Tom Goldstein

All-In PodcastAll-In Podcast
People & Blogs5 min read86 min video
May 7, 2022|159,465 views|2,964|911
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TL;DR

Leaked Roe v. Wade draft to return abortion to states. Experts discuss legal basis, impact, and court's future.

Key Insights

1

The leaked draft opinion by Justice Alito argues Roe v. Wade wrongly decided abortion access, lacking constitutional basis.

2

Alito employs originalist interpretation, concluding abortion isn't deeply rooted in US history and tradition.

3

The decision would return abortion regulation to individual states, potentially leading to a patchwork of laws nationwide.

4

Overturning Roe could create a precedent that challenges other rights previously grounded in privacy and due process, like same-sex marriage and contraception, though Alito's draft attempts to limit it to abortion.

5

The leak itself has raised questions about the Supreme Court's legitimacy and internal workings, and may influence public pressure and future court decisions.

6

The debate highlights the tension between judicial interpretation, evolving societal norms, and the difficulty of amending the Constitution.

THE LEGAL FOUNDATION OF ROE V. WADE AND ITS CHALLENGES

Roe v. Wade, established in the early 1970s, recognized a constitutional right to abortion, initially regulated by trimesters. This right was later reaffirmed in Planned Parenthood v. Casey (1992), which shifted the standard to an "undue burden" test. The constitutional basis for Roe was not explicitly textually enumerated but derived from a broader right to privacy and bodily autonomy. Conservatives have long challenged Roe on both social and jurisprudential grounds, arguing it was wrongly decided and lacks constitutional grounding.

JUSTICE ALITO'S ARGUMENT FOR OVERTURNING ROE

The leaked draft opinion, attributed to Justice Alito, systematically argues for overturning Roe v. Wade. It asserts that abortion is not a right deeply rooted in American history, noting its criminalization in many places historically. Alito also scrutinizes the precedent of Roe and Casey, questioning the reliance factor and deeming the "undue burden" test unworkable. He concludes that abortion is a profound moral issue that should be decided by the people and their representatives at the state level, not by the federal judiciary.

DISTINGUISHING BETWEEN CONSTITUTIONAL INTERPRETATION AND LEGISLATION

The Supreme Court's role is primarily to interpret the Constitution, not to legislate policy. In the context of Roe v. Wade, the Court addressed a challenge to a Mississippi law banning abortions after 15 weeks. By ruling this law constitutional and potentially overturning Roe and Casey, the Court decides who has the authority to regulate abortion – returning the power to state legislatures. This distinction is crucial: the Court isn't banning abortion nationwide but is removing the federal constitutional protection for it.

POTENTIAL DOWNSTREAM IMPACTS ON OTHER CONSTITUTIONAL RIGHTS

A significant concern following the potential overturning of Roe is its impact on other rights established under similar legal principles, such as the right to contraception (Griswold v. Connecticut) and same-sex marriage (Obergefell v. Hodges). While Justice Alito's draft suggests these rights are distinct because they don't involve the termination of a human life, critics argue the underlying reasoning based on substantive due process and privacy could be used to challenge them. The ambiguity leaves these rights vulnerable to future legal challenges.

THE ROLE OF PRECEDENT AND CONFIRMATION HEARINGS

The principle of stare decisis, or adhering to precedent, is central to the Supreme Court's legitimacy. Nominees are often questioned about their views on overturning established precedents like Roe v. Wade. Statements made during confirmation hearings, particularly those characterizing Roe as "settled law" or "precedent on precedent," are now under scrutiny in light of the leaked draft. Some believe justices like Kavanaugh may have misled Congress, while others argue "settled law" does not mean "un-overturnable law."

THE SUPREME COURT'S INSTITUTIONAL STANDING AND THE LEAK'S IMPLICATIONS

The leak of the draft opinion has severely damaged the Supreme Court's image, leading many to question its trustworthiness and perceived politicization. The leak could be an attempt to galvanize public opinion, pressure justices, or solidify votes by making the decision public. This event has amplified concerns about the Court's legitimacy, especially given the politicized nature of nominations and the profound societal impact of its rulings. The institution faces a significant challenge in maintaining public confidence.

THE STRATEGIC AND HUMAN ELEMENT IN THE ABORTION DEBATE

The movement to overturn Roe v. Wade has been a decades-long strategic effort by conservatives, culminating in the appointment of justices aligned with their jurisprudential views. For many, this is a moral imperative to protect unborn life. Conversely, supporters of abortion rights view this as a significant rollback of individual liberty. The division reflects deeply held, passionate beliefs on both sides of a deeply contentious issue, influencing political engagement and electoral strategies.

PROPOSALS FOR SUPREME COURT REFORM: TERM LIMITS AND AGE LIMITS

The lifetime tenure of Supreme Court justices has drawn criticism, particularly with concerns about aging justices and the potential for political deadlock or diminished capacity. Proposals for an 18-year term limit, allowing each president to appoint two justices per term, aim to "normalize" the nomination process and reduce the stakes of individual vacancies. However, implementing such changes would require a constitutional amendment, a difficult process, and the current justices have little incentive to accept limitations on their tenure.

THE PATH FORWARD: STATE-BY-STATE BATTLES AND COMPROMISE

If Roe v. Wade is overturned, abortion regulation will largely return to individual states. This will create a patchwork of laws, with some states likely enacting near-total bans and others preserving broad access. "Trigger laws" in several states could take effect immediately. The situation is expected to intensify political battles in state legislatures and Congress, with potential federal legislation for either protection or prohibition. The hope is that this shift back to the democratic process will eventually lead to compromise and more stable resolutions.

THE DIVIDED AMERICAN PUBLIC AND THE SEARCH FOR CONSENSUS

Public opinion on abortion remains deeply divided, though nuanced. While a majority may identify as "pro-choice," many also support restrictions. The long-standing legal preemption by the Supreme Court has prevented a broad societal consensus from forming through the legislative process. The expectation is that returning the issue to the states will force politicians and the public to engage in more direct negotiation and compromise, potentially leading to more sustainable, albeit initially chaotic, outcomes mirroring resolutions seen in other Western nations.

Common Questions

Justice Alito's draft opinion argues that the right to abortion is not deeply rooted in U.S. history and tradition, and that the 'undue burden' standard established in Casey is unworkable. He concludes that abortion is a moral question best left to the states and their representatives.

Topics

Mentioned in this video

People
Elena Kagan

Supreme Court Justice who, during oral arguments, alluded to the importance of precedent and judicial legitimacy.

William Rehnquist

Former Chief Justice of the Supreme Court, mentioned for his opinion on Miranda rights and judicial legitimacy.

Brett Kavanaugh

Supreme Court Justice appointed by Donald Trump, part of the conservative majority and author of the draft opinion.

Sandra Day O'Connor

Justice involved in the Planned Parenthood v. Casey decision; mentioned in the context of historical Supreme Court composition.

Antonin Scalia

Late Supreme Court Justice whose death created a vacancy that influenced the court's balance.

Amy Coney Barrett

Supreme Court Justice appointed by Donald Trump, part of the conservative majority.

Neil Gorsuch

Justice who wrote the Bostock v. Clayton County opinion and is part of the conservative majority potentially overturning Roe v. Wade.

Mitch McConnell

Former Senate Majority Leader, mentioned for blocking Merrick Garland's Supreme Court nomination while expediting Amy Coney Barrett's.

Clarence Thomas

Supreme Court Justice, mentioned as part of the conservative bloc.

Glenn Youngkin

Governor of Virginia, mentioned as an example of a potential Republican electoral success in purple states.

Samuel Alito

Justice who authored the leaked draft opinion that would overturn Roe v. Wade.

Tom Goldstein

Co-editor of SCOTUS blog and legal expert, discussing the legal framework and potential implications of the Roe v. Wade decision.

Harry Blackmun

Justice who wrote the majority opinion in Roe v. Wade.

Peter Thiel

Mentioned as an example of a libertarian who advocates for minimal government interference.

Amy Howe

Co-editor and reporter for SCOTUS blog, and the video's guest, who provides analysis on Supreme Court decisions and legal precedents.

Anthony Kennedy

Justice involved in the Planned Parenthood v. Casey decision; mentioned regarding his role in key decisions and later retirement.

Donald Trump

Former President whose pledge to appoint conservative justices was a key factor in the current Supreme Court composition.

John Roberts

Chief Justice of the Supreme Court, discussed for his potential incremental approach to the Roe v. Wade case and his role in Bostock v. Clayton County.

David Souter

Justice involved in the Planned Parenthood v. Casey decision; mentioned in context of historical Supreme Court composition.

Ruth Bader Ginsburg

Late Supreme Court Justice, mentioned for her views on incrementalism in legal decisions and her own confirmation process.

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