Chapter 3: Rethinking US-China Relations in the Biden Era with Elizabeth Economy | LFHSPBC
Hoover InstitutionKey Moments
US-China relations, Taiwan's security, Arctic influence, and impact of China's policies on its tech sector and citizens.
Key Insights
China seeks global influence and economic/political gains through initiatives like the Belt and Road, but avoids the responsibilities associated with global power, such as climate action.
China is gradually expanding its influence in the Arctic through research and investment, rebranding it as a global commons issue, while the US lags in infrastructure and resources.
Xi Jinping's consolidation of power has led to a 'depressed' atmosphere among China's creative and entrepreneurial classes, with billionaires facing repercussions for dissent.
The situation in Taiwan is dire, with Xi Jinping viewing its incorporation into mainland China as crucial for his legacy; preventing conflict requires Taiwan's self-defense and international military support.
Balancing pressure on China requires careful communication to avoid conflating government actions with Chinese people, particularly in light of rising anti-Asian hate crimes.
Accountability for COVID-19 deaths should be shared, acknowledging China's initial cover-up while also recognizing individual nations' responsibility for their response strategies.
Preventing paranoia regarding China's threat to democracy involves a factual, granular analysis of its actions, such as its digital currency, rather than succumbing to a 'Red Scare' mentality.
CHINA'S GLOBAL AMBITIONS AND RESPONSIBILITIES
China's pursuit of global influence, exemplified by its Belt and Road Initiative investments in Africa and Italy, is driven by a desire for economic and political gains. However, these actions do not signify an acceptance of global responsibilities, such as leading on climate change. Unlike the US, which stepped up on international agreements, China prioritizes self-interest and operates from a narrow perspective within international bodies like the UN. This approach highlights China's aspiration for the rights of a world power without embracing the associated duties.
CHINA'S GROWING ARCTIC PRESENCE
China is actively seeking to expand its influence in the Arctic, framing the region as a 'global commons' issue to broaden international involvement beyond Arctic nations. This long-term strategy involves research, expeditions, and investment in infrastructure, although its role as an observer in the Arctic Council limits its decision-making power. While initial welcome for Chinese investment is shifting as countries recognize potential dual-use implications, the US has fallen behind in its own Arctic infrastructure, limited by underfunded expeditions and a severe lack of icebreakers compared to China and Russia.
IMPACT OF POLITICAL CONSOLIDATION ON CHINA'S ELITE
Within China, Xi Jinping's extended political power has created a climate of depression among the creative class, entrepreneurs, and scholars. Their capacity for experimentation and entrepreneurialism is increasingly constrained. Prominent figures and billionaires, such as Jack Ma, have faced repercussions for criticizing government regulation or dissent, sending a clear message that no one is untouchable. This has led many tech entrepreneurs to step down or move out of the limelight, reflecting a shrinking space for independent enterprise.
THE TAIWAN QUESTION AND INTERNATIONAL STRATEGY
The unification of Taiwan with mainland China is a central tenet of Xi Jinping's vision for the 'great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation,' making it a critical issue for his legacy. While an invasion is contingent on the People's Liberation Army's confidence in victory, the potential for conflict within the next five to ten years is considerable. Preventing such a scenario requires Taiwan to bolster its self-defense capabilities and necessitates a broader international coalition offering military support, rather than symbolic gestures that provoke Beijing without enhancing security.
BALANCING FOREIGN POLICY AND DOMESTIC PROTECTION
Addressing rising anti-Asian hate crimes, exacerbated by rhetoric like 'kung flu' and the 'Wuhan virus,' requires leaders, including President Biden, to clearly separate government policy toward China from the treatment of Asian citizens in the US. This distinction is crucial to foster empathy and support for Chinese people enduring difficult circumstances. Empowering Asian American voices to speak out against discrimination is vital, challenging the 'model minority' stereotype and advocating for their rights and safety within the United States.
ACCOUNTABILITY FOR THE PANDEMIC
While acknowledging China's initial cover-up and suppression of early whistleblowers regarding COVID-19 is important, attributing the entire responsibility for global deaths solely to China is an oversimplification. Nations bear their own responsibility for their pandemic responses, including public health management and adherence to precautions. While investigating the lab leak theory is crucial, the focus should remain on collective accountability for actions taken and the effectiveness of domestic strategies in mitigating the virus's impact.
NAVIGATING THE THREAT OF COMMUNISM WITHOUT PARANOIA
To counter the perceived threat of China and communism to democracy without descending into paranoia, a fact-based, granular approach is essential. This involves moving beyond broad accusations and focusing on the specifics of China's actions, such as its digital currency (e-CNY). Unlike sensationalized fears, a thorough analysis reveals that much of China's surveillance capability already exists, and while the e-CNY may enhance these abilities, it does not necessarily represent a complete transformation or a direct replacement for the US dollar's global reserve status.
Mentioned in This Episode
●Software & Apps
●Companies
●Organizations
●Books
●Concepts
●People Referenced
Comparison of Icebreaker Fleets
Data extracted from this episode
| Country | Current Icebreakers | Projected Fleet Size |
|---|---|---|
| China | 2 | 25+ |
| Russia | Vast Fleet | 40+ |
| US | 2 | Not Specified (Underfunded) |
Common Questions
China seeks economic and political influence globally, as seen in its Belt and Road investments, but avoids taking on responsibilities for global stability or initiative on issues like climate change, prioritizing narrow self-interest.
Topics
Mentioned in this video
Prominent Asian American involved in a movement for Asian Americans to make their voices heard and advocate for themselves.
WHO Director-General, mentioned for speaking at Chinese universities, highlighting China's influence within the organization.
China's initiative to develop infrastructure and expand influence in the Arctic region, linked to its maritime strategy.
Mentioned as a location for Chinese investments, signifying China's broader international engagement.
A derogatory term used by the previous administration for COVID-19, contributing to anti-Asian sentiment. The guest argued against its use.
A new digital currency that has generated hype regarding its potential to transform finance, replace the US dollar, and enhance China's surveillance capabilities. However, much of its monitoring capability already exists.
An international agreement to reduce CO2 and methane emissions. China's inaction after the US withdrawal is highlighted as an example of seeking rights without responsibility.
Its founder stepped back, part of a trend of tech entrepreneurs reducing their public roles due to increased government scrutiny in China.
The People's Liberation Army; its perceived ability to win a conflict is a prerequisite for Xi Jinping to initiate action against Taiwan.
A piece of legislation that, like the Taiwan Travel Act, was criticized for being performative and enraging mainland China without substantially enhancing security.
Discussed in the context of how US rhetoric on China can negatively impact Asian people living in the US, especially after the COVID-19 pandemic.
Used as a historical parallel to caution against falling into paranoia when discussing the threat posed by China and communism.
An international forum for the Arctic states. China is an observer but not a member, limiting its decision-making power.
Taiwan's potential access to meetings is discussed as part of international support efforts.
Mentioned as an example of a country whose officials' travel to Taiwan is seen as a provocative, ineffective gesture.
Former head of Indo-Pacific Command who believed Xi Jinping intended to take action on Taiwan within six years.
Professor at Stanford Business School, co-chairing a project on China's digital currency with the guest.
A term used by the previous administration for COVID-19, contributing to anti-Asian sentiment. The guest argued against its use.
A whistleblower in China who was silenced early in the COVID-19 outbreak, illustrating the nature of the Chinese political system's cover-up.
Mentioned as a region where China invests for economic and political influence through the Belt and Road Initiative.
Real estate billionaire sentenced to 18 years in jail for criticizing Xi Jinping during COVID-19.
Legislation criticized for allowing senior officials to meet Taiwanese counterparts but not enhancing security, while provoking mainland China.
The Chinese currency, discussed in the context of whether the digital Yuan will replace the US dollar as the world's reserve currency.
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