“This is Bibi’s War” - Harvard’s Graham Allison on the Influences and Endgame of the Iran War

Allison suggests the conflict is largely 'BB's war,' referring to Netanyahu's long-standing objective to confront Iran. He questions Trump's motivations, suggesting it could be a mix of being mesmerized by Netanyahu's arguments, potential excitement about the perceived upside, or reacting to instincts rather than a clear strategy.

Overthrowing the regime could leave Iran with no infrastructure or leadership, creating a breeding ground for extremist groups. Drawing parallels to Iraq and Afghanistan, Allison expresses concern that the US may lack the resources to manage such a prolonged and complex situation.

Allison considers the likelihood of a Chinese attack on Taiwan within the next few years to be very low (around 5%). He cites China's preference for 'peaceful reunification,' internal military purges, potential US involvement, and Trump's accommodating stance as factors contributing to this low probability.

Taiwan is critical because it produces 96% of the world's advanced semiconductors (TSMC). Losing access to these chips would pose a significant threat to the global economy and US technological leadership.

China has experienced meteoric rise, becoming a major global power. Its strategy hinges on the narrative of its 'inexorable rise' and the US's 'inexorable decline.' Economic power is essential for this, aiming to be the world's manufacturing hub, though facing challenges like population decline and unemployment.

Greenland is important for missile defense bases and as part of Arctic territorial claims. While Allison believes the US can secure its interests without owning Greenland, the melting Arctic opens new sea lanes, increasing its geopolitical relevance, especially in the context of potential Chinese influence.

This framework highlights 80 years since the last great power war, 80 years since the last nuclear bomb was used, and 9 countries currently possessing nuclear weapons. Allison emphasizes that these are abnormal achievements that should not be taken for granted and are fragile.

Allison believes the growing economic divide is unsustainable and politically dangerous, creating an invitation for radical populist ideas. He expresses concern about policies that support non-productive activity and a lack of coherent programs to address these issues.

Allison distinguishes between his pro-Israel stance and his anti-Netanyahu sentiment. He argues that Netanyahu's actions, particularly regarding Israeli democracy and interference in US politics, risk alienating younger generations in America and could have long-term negative effects on US-Israel relations.