Are advancements like AI and Quantum Computing proof that science is still progressing rapidly?

While technologies like AI and Quantum Computing seem futuristic, their underlying breakthroughs are often decades old. Their slow development and high investment illustrate the problem of applying foundational discoveries, rather than refuting the slowdown in new, fundamental research.

Was the decline in scientific progress caused by a drop in R&D funding?

No, R&D funding as a share of GDP has remained relatively constant since the 1970s, even as absolute spending and the number of researchers have increased. The issue appears to be systemic, not a lack of investment.

What are the main reasons for the decline in scientific impact?

Potential causes include increasing bureaucracy, the 'publish or perish' culture, and a growing risk aversion among researchers. These incentivise mainstream, low-risk research over potentially groundbreaking, high-risk endeavors.

How does bureaucracy in academia hinder scientific progress?

Bureaucracy leads to excessive administrative tasks, lengthy grant application processes, and difficulty in funding novel or high-risk research. This wastes researchers' time and discourages them from pursuing truly innovative ideas.

Why do scientists pursue research they don't find valuable?

Many scientists feel compelled to work on topics that will reliably produce results to secure funding and jobs, often due to competition and the 'publish or perish' culture. Surveys indicate a significant percentage would change their research agenda if given flexibility.

What are the societal consequences of slowing scientific progress?

Slowing scientific progress impacts technological advancement, which is crucial for addressing existential threats like supervolcano eruptions, asteroid impacts, or solar flares. The speaker fears this stall could jeopardize humanity's survival.

How does the public view science amidst these issues?

While much academic research is invisible to the public, questionable government spending on studies has fueled public skepticism. This erosion of trust could become more significant if the perceived lack of tangible benefits continues.

Science is in trouble and it worries me.

Sabine Hossenfelder

Science & Technology4 min read25 min video

Nov 16, 2024|759,089 views|50,949|11,491

hossenfelder science with sabine innovation slowing is innovation slowing down is science dying is science slowing down science dying sabine science is failing is science failing what is wrong with academia problems with academia academic research broken

Save to Pod

Key Moments

TL;DR

Science is producing fewer breakthroughs despite increased effort, potentially due to systemic issues in academic research.

Key Insights

Scientific output, measured by publications, is rapidly increasing, but this doesn't equate to proportional societal or technological progress.

Economic indicators like total factor productivity show a stagnation or decline in the return on research and development investments.

Metrics of patent novelty, invention narrowness, and research disruptiveness have shown a downward trend since the mid-20th century.

Modern technological advancements are often based on decades-old discoveries, not recent breakthroughs, indicating slow translation from research to application.

Potential causes for declining research productivity include excessive bureaucracy, the "publish or perish" culture, and increasing risk aversion in academia.

Many scientists themselves feel compelled to work on projects they don't deem most valuable due to systemic pressures, as indicated by surveys.

The slowing of scientific progress has significant implications for humanity's ability to address existential threats, highlighting the urgency of reform.

THE ILLUSION OF PROGRESS: RISING OUTPUT, STAGNANT IMPACT

While the number of scientists and scientific publications has grown exponentially, especially in the last few decades, this surge in activity does not translate into proportional societal or technological advancements. Although the sheer volume of research papers, conferences, and grant applications suggests robust scientific activity, underlying economic indicators and measures of innovation reveal a different, more concerning picture of diminishing returns on our collective scientific efforts.

ECONOMIC INDICATORS AND THE HARDENING OF IDEAS

Economists measure research productivity using metrics like total factor productivity, which compares inputs like labor and capital against outputs of goods and services. Data indicates that despite a steep increase in researchers and R&D spending, the growth in factor productivity has remained stagnant, suggesting that our investment in research yields fewer and fewer economic benefits. This trend is visible across sectors, from agricultural yields to the approval of new drugs.

DECREASING NOVELTY AND DISRUPTIVENESS IN RESEARCH

Further evidence of this decline comes from analyzing the novelty and disruptiveness of scientific work. Studies examining US patents show a downward trend in novelty since the 1960s. More recent analyses of millions of scientific papers reveal a significant decrease in the number of truly disruptive ideas across various disciplines, including physical sciences, chemistry, computer science, and biomedicine. This suggests that while more research is being done, less of it is fundamentally changing scientific landscapes.

TECHNOLOGICAL ADVANCEMENTS BUILT ON OLD FOUNDATIONS

Many of today's highly anticipated technologies, such as artificial intelligence, quantum computing, and neural implants, are not the product of recent scientific breakthroughs. Instead, they are built upon foundational discoveries made decades ago, with applications and refinements taking over half a century to approach fruition. This slow pace and the immense investment required for these 'new' technologies serve not as counter-examples to the problem, but as illustrations of the prolonged and often inefficient journey from basic research to tangible application.

SYSTEMIC ISSUES WITHIN ACADEMIC RESEARCH

The data points towards a systemic problem within the organization of academic research as a primary cause for the decline in scientific progress. While basic research ideally fuels breakthroughs, it currently faces significant hurdles. Proposed causes include excessive bureaucracy hindering efficient progress, the 'publish or perish' mentality prioritizing quantity over quality, and an increasing risk aversion among researchers driven by intense competition for funding and jobs, leading to a focus on safe, mainstream research rather than potentially transformative yet high-risk endeavors.

THE BUREAUCRATIC BOTTLENECK AND CAREER PRESSURES

Bureaucracy within academic institutions is frequently cited as a major impediment, with lengthy grant application processes, grant accounting, and extensive reporting requirements consuming valuable research time. Furthermore, the pressure to publish extensively, often in prestigious journals, incentivizes incremental work over potentially groundbreaking, but higher-risk, projects. This environment forces many scientists to pursue research that may not align with their genuine interests or perceived societal value, as evidenced by surveys where a large majority would change their research agenda if given more flexibility.

THE PUBLIC PERCEPTION AND THE NEED FOR REFORM

The disconnect between scientific output and societal progress risks eroding public trust, even if much of this 'boring' or low-impact research is currently invisible to the general public. When taxpayer money is perceived to fund frivolous studies, it invites scrutiny and skepticism. Recognizing this well-documented problem is the crucial first step towards reform. The slowing of scientific progress has profound implications, particularly concerning humanity's ability to address existential threats like climate change, super volcano eruptions, or asteroid impacts, underscoring the urgent need to revitalize scientific innovation.

Mentioned in This Episode

●Products

●Software & Apps

●Tools

●Companies

●Organizations

●Books

●Concepts

●People Referenced

Common Questions

Numerous studies indicate a decline in research productivity, patent novelty, and disruptive ideas. This slowdown is observed across various fields and countries, suggesting a systemic issue rather than isolated problems.

Topics

Research Productivity Funding Publish Or Perish Public Perception Of Science Grant Proposals

Mentioned in this video

concepttotal Factor productivity

An economic measure used to quantify productivity by comparing inputs (like R&D) with economic outputs.

conceptdrag shows

Cited as an example of perceived frivolous government spending ($20k) on studies in Ecuador.

personJapanese quail

Mentioned in the context of questionable government spending on studies, specifically a study involving cocaine and their behavior.

productbrain implants

Mentioned as a futuristic technology whose development is based on decades-old discoveries, highlighting the slow pace from research to application.

conceptGDP

Gross Domestic Product, used as a metric to show that R&D funding as a share of GDP has remained relatively constant since the 1970s.

locationNorth America

Identified as a region experiencing a steep increase in the number of scientists per capita over the past 30 years.

conceptUS patents

Used as a metric to assess novelty, with data showing a decline in patent novelty since the 1960s.

conceptbiomedicine

A scientific field that has experienced a decline in the number of disruptive ideas, according to a study in Nature.

personJonathan Hopner

An individual who claimed in 2005 that the rate of innovation has been declining globally since industrialization began.

toolFast Grants

A program initiated by Patrick Collison and others to provide rapid, low-bureaucracy funding to researchers, especially during the COVID-19 pandemic.

organizationEuropean Research Council

A funding agency that explicitly aims to support 'transformative research' but, according to the speaker, often ends up funding conventional projects.

conceptpineapple on Pizza

Mentioned humorously as not being the speaker's biggest worry, contrasting with worries about scientific progress.

bookThe End of Science

A book by John Hogan that argues that major scientific breakthroughs are becoming increasingly rare, suggesting a potential end to significant scientific progress.

bookOur Ideas Getting Harder to Find

A paper by economists that analyzed U.S. factor productivity growth, finding it constant despite increased research effort.

conceptdrug development

Identified as a field experiencing a systemic slowdown in progress around the 1960s-70s.

conceptApollo missions

Referenced as a period in US history with a shared sense of purpose and pressure that may have spurred innovation.

organizationEU