Key Moments
Market Failure and Market Design
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Key Moments
Market design can fix 'unraveling' in labor and organ markets, but repugnance against transactions like kidney sales remains a significant constraint.
Key Insights
Markets can 'unravel' with early hiring and exploding offers, leading to information loss and reduced mobility, as seen in medical residency markets.
Stable matching algorithms, like the Deferred Acceptance algorithm, can resolve unraveling by ensuring no participant has an incentive to unilaterally deviate.
Kidney exchange programs, facilitated by computer matching, can significantly increase transplant rates by overcoming donor-recipient incompatibilities, improving upon bilateral exchanges with three-way exchanges.
Repugnance, defined as transactions some people don't want others to engage in, acts as a significant constraint on market design, influencing laws and societal norms regarding organs, labor, and other goods.
The successful reintegration of gastroenterologists into a matching system required a policy empowering applicants to break early offers, thus making such offers unprofitable for programs.
The problem of market unraveling
Markets can fail when participants, in an effort to gain an advantage, engage in transactions too early, leading to a collapse of the market's structure. This phenomenon, termed 'unraveling,' is exemplified in labor markets where employers hire candidates long before employment, resulting in information losses for both parties and reduced mobility. Medical residents, for instance, were once hired after graduation but were later hired years in advance, leading to incomplete information about their skills and a rush to accept the first available offer, often without considering better alternatives. Similar patterns are observed in social organization recruitment ('rush') and early college admissions. While uniform dates or rules are often proposed to fix this, they seldom succeed on their own.
Stable matching as a solution
A key solution to market unraveling is the implementation of stable matching mechanisms. The Deferred Acceptance Algorithm, a core concept in computer science and economics, provides a way to create stable matchings. In this process, students (or applicants) propose to institutions (or employers) in order of preference. Institutions tentatively accept the best proposals they receive and reject others. Applicants then propose to their next choices, and the process continues until no further rejections are issued. A theorem by Gale and Shapley guarantees that this algorithm produces a stable outcome, meaning no two participants would prefer to be matched with each other over their current matches. This stability prevents participants from seeking alternative, potentially unstable, transactions outside the designed market.
Kidney exchange: Overcoming biological and logistical barriers
Kidney transplantation faces a critical shortage and a mismatch between donors and recipients due to biological incompatibilities (blood type and immunological factors). While selling kidneys is illegal in the US, kidney exchange offers a way to increase the supply of viable organs. In a two-way exchange, donor A gives to recipient B, and donor B gives to recipient A. However, three-way and even four-way exchanges can significantly increase the number of transplants, especially when dealing with specific blood types or complex immunological profiles. For instance, a rare O-type donor might be unable to donate to their intended recipient but could initiate a chain that ultimately benefits multiple incompatible pairs. The development of computerized matching systems acts as a clearinghouse, assembling databases of incompatible pairs and finding efficient matches, thereby creating a thicker market for kidneys.
The challenge of repugnance in market design
Beyond logistical and biological failures, a significant constraint on market design is 'repugnance' – transactions that some people find morally objectionable and deem illegal or inappropriate. Examples include the sale of horse meat in California, organ sales, and certain aspects of surrogacy. Repugnance can change over time and across cultures, as seen with the historical acceptance of cadavers for medical education versus modern exhibits like 'Body Worlds.' Similarly, what was once repugnant, like charging interest on loans or indentured servitude, has become more accepted or entirely prohibited. Market designers must navigate these deeply held moral and legal boundaries, as exemplified by the continued prohibition of private kidney sales despite the success of kidney exchange programs.
Improving kidney exchange efficiency and reach
Efforts to improve kidney exchange markets focus on increasing their thickness and efficiency. This involves enabling three-way exchanges, which significantly boost transplant numbers compared to only two-way exchanges. It also includes developing larger-scale, potentially national, exchange networks to accommodate highly sensitized patients who have very specific antibody profiles. Innovative approaches, such as creating 'never-ending altruistic donor chains' by allowing sequential, non-simultaneous donations, are being explored. Furthermore, the concept of offering exchange to compatible pairs who might benefit from a younger donor or a better match, and extending this to non-directed donors, aims to maximize the utilization of available kidneys. The goal is to build a market where more incompatible pairs can find suitable matches.
Lessons from gastroenterology and the judicial clerkship market
The market for gastroenterologists initially unraveled due to early hiring and exploding offers. The solution involved creating a matching system, but its initial success was threatened when the field departed from it. The reintegration required a policy, adopted from graduate school admissions, allowing applicants to accept early offers but retain the right to break them later for a better match. This negated the advantage of making early, binding offers. In contrast, the market for judicial clerks to federal judges illustrates a more intractable problem. Students are hesitant to break promises to judges, and there is no central authority to enforce rules on judges who make exploding offers. This creates a market with severe unraveling and limited apparent solutions, highlighting how differing levels of trust and enforcement mechanisms in participant groups can doom market design efforts.
Mentioned in This Episode
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●People Referenced
Kidney Exchange Efficiency by Cycle Size
Data extracted from this episode
| Exchange Type | Pool Size | Transplant Success Rate |
|---|---|---|
| Two-way exchange | 25 pairs | 36% (of potential) |
| Two-way + Three-way exchange | 25 pairs | 45% |
| Up to four-way exchange | 25 pairs | 47% |
| Larger exchanges | 25 pairs | 48% |
| Two-way exchange | Larger pool | 49% |
| Two-way + Three-way exchange | Larger pool | 59% |
Common Questions
Market design is the field that looks at how to create or improve markets to achieve specific goals. It involves understanding how participants interact and designing the rules and structure of the market to ensure efficiency, fairness, and stability. This can involve creating clearinghouses, setting rules for offers, and managing information flow.
Topics
Mentioned in this video
World's expert on stable marriage algorithm and market design, author of 'The Two-Sided Matching Problems.'
Psychologist who coined the term 'taboo trade-offs,' related to repugnance in markets.
Former Governor of California, mentioned in relation to a 1998 referendum on serving horse meat.
Collaborator with Al Roth on medical labor markets and gastroenterologist matching.
Colleague involved in the gastroenterology market redesign, helping to organize the match.
Economics collaborator on kidney exchange research.
Medical collaborator on kidney exchange research.
Medical collaborator on kidney exchange research.
Medical collaborator on kidney exchange research and surgeon involved in kidney exchange.
A historical term for grave robbers who supplied cadavers to medical schools in the 19th century.
Economist from the University of Chicago who argued for allowing markets and then specifying what should remain illegal.
Economics collaborator on kidney exchange research.
Organization that formulated a policy on early admissions offers for graduate programs, used as an analogy for the gastroenterologist match.
A hospital and medical institution mentioned as a leader in early kidney exchange efforts.
University mentioned in relation to its medical school's historical need for cadavers and its current research in behavioral economics.
Mentioned as an example of a market with severe unraveling problems due to exploding offers and inability to break promises.
A kidney exchange consortium in the Midwest, mentioned in the context of extending chains and non-simultaneous surgeries.
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