Jeffrey Wasserstrom: China, Xi Jinping, Trade War, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Mao | Lex Fridman Podcast #466
Lex FridmanKey Moments
Xi Jinping combines Mao's cult of personality with Confucian order, using censorship and economic leverage to maintain control.
Key Insights
Xi Jinping's leadership style blends elements of Mao's personality cult with Confucian order, valuing stability over chaos and traditional hierarchies.
Censorship in China operates through fear, friction (making information difficult to access), and flooding (saturating media with approved narratives), making the country more akin to a 'Brave New World' dystopia.
The 1989 Tiananmen Square protests were a mix of anti-corruption and pro-democracy sentiments, ultimately suppressed violently, and the legacy of the 'Tank Man' remains a powerful, suppressed symbol.
Hong Kong's 'One Country, Two Systems' model and its suppression serve as a cautionary tale for Taiwan, intensifying Taiwanese identity and resistance to absorption by Beijing.
Mao Zedong's rise to power involved leveraging peasant support and forging alliances, ultimately leading to the Communist Party's victory in the Chinese Civil War.
The Great Leap Forward led to a catastrophic famine due to bad information, ego, and factional struggles, highlighting the dangers of unchallenged power and flawed policymaking.
THE PARALLELS AND DIVERGENCES OF XI JINPING AND MAO ZEDONG
Jeffrey Wasserstrom draws significant parallels between current Chinese leader Xi Jinping and Mao Zedong, primarily noting their shared characteristic of being subjects of intense personality cults. Mao's cult was deeply ingrained from 1949 to 1976, while Xi Jinping marks the first leader since Mao to foster a sustained, pervasive cult of personality, evident in the ubiquitous display of his books and speeches. However, their leadership philosophies diverge dramatically. Mao reveled in revolutionary chaos and disruption, promoting class struggle and drawing inspiration from figures like the Monkey King. In contrast, Xi Jinping prioritizes order, stability, and predictability, even embracing Confucian traditions that Mao once denounced as feudal. Both leaders, however, are united in their commitment to Communist Party rule and a vision of a strong, great China.
CONFUCIANISM'S ENDURING INFLUENCE ON MODERN CHINA
Confucianism, an ancient Chinese philosophy, emphasizes stable hierarchies and reciprocal duties within relationships. Key tenets include the idea that people are born similar but are differentiated through learning, fostering a meritocratic tradition. This legacy is reflected in China's historical civil service exams and the modern gaokao, a high-stakes university entrance exam. Despite this emphasis on merit, the system faces challenges from nepotism and corruption, which can trigger public outrage. While Mao rejected Confucianism, Xi Jinping selectively incorporates its principles, particularly its emphasis on stability and order, to legitimize his rule. This creates a fascinating tension between the progressive, revolutionary ideals of Marxism and the conservative, backward-looking nature of Confucianism in contemporary China.
THE TIANANMEN SQUARE PROTESTS OF 1989 AND THEIR LEGACY
The Tiananmen Square protests of 1989 were a massive movement largely misrepresented outside China and suppressed within. They sought to push the Communist Party to uphold its stated reform ideals, particularly in the political sphere, mirroring earlier student frustrations. The protests were ignited by the death of reformist leader Hu Yaobang and fueled by concerns about corruption, nepotism, and a desire for greater freedom of speech. The government's labeling of the protests as 'chaos' (a coded reference to the Cultural Revolution) backfired, as students and later workers united against what they saw as an unfair system. The violent suppression of the protests, culminating in the June 3rd-4th massacre, and the iconic 'Tank Man' image, revealed the military acting as an invading force within its own country. This event fundamentally shaped the state's approach to dissent and image control.
CENSORSHIP IN THE DIGITAL AGE: FEAR, FRICTION, AND FLOODING
Chinese censorship is a sophisticated system operating through three primary mechanisms: fear, friction, and flooding. Fear involves direct threats and punishments, selectively applied to high-profile individuals to deter activism. Friction makes information access difficult for the average citizen through measures like the 'Great Firewall' and constantly changing VPN protocols. Flooding, arguably the most insidious, inundates the media with government-approved narratives, shaping public perception through pervasive propaganda and distraction. This approach makes China's control often resemble Aldous Huxley's 'Brave New World,' where pleasure and distraction pacify the populace, rather than George Orwell's '1984' through overt oppression, though elements of '1984' emerge in regions like Xinjiang and during severe lockdowns. The Chinese Communist Party has learned the power of images, actively suppressing visuals that could undermine its legitimacy, such as the 'Tank Man' photograph.
THE BLACK BOX OF CHINESE POLITICS AND XI JINPING'S UNGUARDED NATURE
Understanding the internal dynamics of the Chinese Communist Party remains exceptionally challenging, often described as a 'black box.' Unlike previous eras where factions and rival power bases were discernible, Xi Jinping's consolidation of power has made the inner workings of the elite largely opaque. There is minimal insight into his personal motivations beyond his public persona as a scholarly and nationalist figure dedicated to the party's rule and China's global greatness. His disdain for Gorbachev's 'unmanly' leadership, leading to the Soviet Union's collapse, offers a rare glimpse into his deeply held convictions about maintaining firm control. Xi sees himself as rebuilding and strengthening a nation that endured a 'century of national humiliation,' positioning the party as the guarantor of China's reasserted place in the world.
HONG KONG'S DECLINE AND TAIWAN'S FUTURE
The 1984 'One Country, Two Systems' agreement for Hong Kong was initially presented as a model for Taiwan's eventual absorption into the PRC. However, Beijing's increasing erosion of Hong Kong's autonomy, particularly after 2008 and accelerating with the 2019 protests and subsequent national security law, has served as a cautionary tale for Taiwan. Hong Kong, once a unique city with considerable freedom and rule of law within the PRC, has seen its distinctiveness largely eliminated. This crackdown has significantly intensified a sense of Taiwanese identity and reduced willingness to pursue closer ties with Beijing, undermining the 'One Country, Two Systems' appeal. The protests in Hong Kong, though ultimately suppressed, showcased an admirable spirit of resistance, inspiring activists globally and highlighting the enduring desire for democratic ideals even in the face of overwhelming odds.
MAO ZEDONG'S ASCENSION AND THE GREAT LEAP FORWARD'S CATASTROPHE
Mao Zedong's path to power was winding. Following the overthrow of the Qing Dynasty in 1911, China entered a period of fragmentation. Mao, an intellectual inspired by Marxism and the Russian Revolution, helped form the Communist Party. Initially allied with the Nationalist Party against warlords and imperialists, the Communists faced a brutal purge by Chiang Kai-shek in 1927. Mao, however, championed a unique vision of communist revolution rooted in the peasantry, departing from traditional Marxist urban focus. After World War II, a civil war between the Communists and Nationalists (the latter supported by the US) saw the Communists prevail, largely due to public disgust with Nationalist corruption. After consolidating power, Mao's utopian impulses led to disastrous policies like the Great Leap Forward (1958-1962), an attempt at rapid industrialization and collectivization that resulted in a catastrophic famine, killing 30-45 million people. This tragedy was exacerbated by a culture of fear that encouraged officials to submit false, optimistic reports, ultimately preventing Mao from recognizing or rectifying the devastation he caused.
THE ONGOING TRADE WAR AND GEOPOLITICAL DYNAMICS
The current trade war between the US and China is not merely economic but deeply cultural, playing into China's historical narrative of national humiliation. Xi Jinping's rhetoric, echoing sentiments from the Korean War era, emphasizes self-reliance and resistance to 'unjust oppression,' resonate with the historical memory of foreign bullying. While the trade war creates disincentives for conflict, it also risks global economic instability. Geopolitical dynamics are complex, with events outside the direct US-China relationship (like the Sino-Soviet split or 9/11) often dramatically altering trajectories. China aims to cultivate alliances, particularly in Southeast Asia and Europe, by positioning itself as a responsible, stable global actor. The unpredictability of leaders like Donald Trump, combined with China's own internal motivations for strength and control, creates an unstable environment where the possibility of miscalculation and escalation remains a significant concern, emphasizing the need for de-escalation strategies.
THE UNPREDICTABILITY OF HISTORY AND THE POWER OF PROTEST
History is fundamentally unpredictable, often defying linear expectations. Protests, even those that appear to fail, often lay groundwork for future movements by providing experience, shared scripts, and a collective memory of resistance. The Hong Kong protests, for instance, drew on earlier local movements and inspired activists globally. While the short-term outcome for Hong Kong was the imposition of a national security law, the 'Hong Kong spirit' endures in diaspora communities and cultural expressions, representing an alternative Chinese identity rooted in diversity and openness. This long-term perspective suggests that even seemingly impossible struggles can, over time, lead to significant shifts, as seen in the transitions of countries like South Korea and Taiwan from dictatorships to democracies. These examples highlight that sustained resistance, often combined with external shifts, can eventually unravel seemingly entrenched systems.
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Common Questions
Xi Jinping and Mao Zedong both cultivated personality cults. However, Mao reveled in political chaos and class struggle, even drawing inspiration from the rebellious Monkey King. In contrast, Xi Jinping prioritizes order, stability, and predictability, often referencing Confucian traditions. Mao actively disliked Confucianism, viewing it as feudal, while Xi Jinping promotes it alongside communism.
Topics
Mentioned in this video
Book by Margaret E. Roberts discussing fear, friction, and flooding as methods of censorship.
The most popular rock musician in China, who performed at Tiananmen Square during the 1989 protests.
A reformist leader within the Chinese Communist Party whose unexpected death in 1989 triggered student protests that evolved into the Tiananmen Square movement.
An iconic unknown individual who bravely stood in front of a line of tanks in Tiananmen Square in 1989, an image banned in China.
The lone man who put up a banner on Sitong Bridge in Beijing denouncing Xi Jinping and Zero-COVID policies, who subsequently disappeared.
Meetings where Xi Jinping and Obama were photographed together, illustrating the choreographed nature of Xi's public appearances.
The provisional first president of the Republic of China, who founded the Nationalist Party and encouraged cooperation with the Communist Party against warlords and imperialists.
A New Zealand-based China specialist who discusses the concept of 'the other China,' which embodies diverse Chinese traditions beyond the Communist Party's narrow vision.
Book by Hannah Arendt on totalitarianism, which surprisingly isn't censored in China due to its lack of specific focus on China.
Dystopian novel by William Gibson, whose author made observations about Singapore as a controlled society.
Author whose new book, 'No Straight Road Takes You There: Essays for Uneven Terrain,' advocates for a longer view on struggles that seem to fail, emphasizing incremental gains.
Chinese writer, race car driver, and filmmaker who humorously highlighted the interconnectedness of trade as a check on violence, using iPhones as an example.
Mao's favorite work of Chinese popular fiction, representing a legendary figure who could turn the heavens upside down, symbolizing Mao's embrace of disorder.
Aldous Huxley's non-fiction work in which he revisits the themes of 'Brave New World,' with China-specific references censored in mainland editions.
Jeffrey Wasserstrom's upcoming book about struggles for change across East and Southeast Asia.
Journalist for NPR and author of 'Let Only Red Flowers Bloom,' who reports on the narrowing spaces for Chinese identity under Xi Jinping.
Writer whose work on Tibet discusses parallels between its system and Hong Kong's 'one country, two systems' arrangement.
Rebecca Solnit's book advocating a long-term perspective on social struggles and recognizing incremental gains amidst apparent setbacks.
Chinese state newspaper that issued an editorial condemning the 1989 student protests, framing them as chaos.
A former leader of the Chinese Communist Party who was imprisoned and denied medical care, showing how figures can be made examples of.
Author of a book on Chinese censorship, proposing three ways of control: fear, friction, and flooding.
Author of 'The Handmaid's Tale,' praised by the speaker for her clarity in constructing a philosophical message.
Author of 'Neuromancer,' who referred to Singapore as 'Disneyland with the death penalty,' highlighting its seductive but controlled nature.
Author of 'We,' who inspired both Orwell and Huxley, notably included in Taiwan and Hong Kong's 'dystopian trilogy.'
A Guardian journalist covering China, who wrote about the phenomenon of overseas bookstores.
Site in Beijing destroyed by European forces in 1860, an event Victor Hugo famously denounced, making him a 'friend to the Chinese nation.'
Yevgeny Zamyatin's dystopian novel, part of a 'dystopian trilogy' which also inspired Orwell and Huxley.
Formerly an underground bookstore in Shanghai that fostered discussions of liberal ideas, now reopened in Washington DC due to tightening controls in China.
A journalist who wrote about China having both the best and worst internet experience in the world.
Journalist and foreign policy editor who wrote about the opacity of Chinese elite politics, describing it as a 'black box.'
A Swedish citizen and Hong Kong bookseller who was kidnapped and remains imprisoned in China for publishing works about Communist Party leaders' private lives.
Emily Fang's new book detailing the changes in China under Xi Jinping, specifically the narrowing of diverse expressions of Chinese identity.
Victor Hugo's novel, from which 'Do You Hear the People Sing?' became a protest song in Hong Kong.
A Hungarian friend and activist who experienced the end of communist rule but became a critic of subsequent tightening control under Orban.
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