What are the key objectives of the US strategy towards Russia?

The strategy focuses on three main objectives: confronting Russia's destabilizing behavior by imposing costs, deterring conflict (including new generation warfare and through denial), and seeking limited areas of cooperation, though the latter is difficult under Putin's leadership.

How does the US military approach countering violent extremism?

It requires assessing factors like troop presence and clarifying intentions. Reports suggest forward military presence has often failed to win hearts and minds, necessitating an integrated approach that considers local perspectives and the nature of the conflict.

What ethical framework guides US military actions, especially with new technologies?

US military actions are guided by Just War theory, focusing on proportionality and discrimination between combatants and non-combatants. Department of Defense policy requires a human in the loop for lethal autonomous weapon systems.

What were the main flaws of the Iran Nuclear Deal (JCPOA)?

The JCPOA was criticized for flawed assumptions that Iran would moderate its behavior and that sanctions relief would empower moderate factions. Instead, it strengthened the Revolutionary Wing, poured money into the IRGC, and accelerated regional conflicts.

What is the desired outcome for US policy regarding Iran?

The goal is not regime change, but a slow shift in the regime's nature to cease its hostility towards the US, Israel, and the West. This involves highlighting historical behavior patterns and understanding internal regime dynamics.

Who is responsible for Iran's economic problems according to the discussion?

The speaker emphasizes that credit for Iran's economic struggles should be given to the current government's "criminals," pointing to unaccounted oil revenues and the perpetuation of sectarian civil wars, rather than external factors.

Explaining Strategic Competence with H.R. McMaster (Lessons from the Hoover Policy Boot Camp) | Ch 3

Hoover Institution

Education4 min read23 min video

Jun 3, 2020|156,074 views|23|5

National Security Afghanistan Russia Hoover Institution Hoover Institute HR McMaster North Korea Strategic Competence National Policy International Order Foreign Policy

Save to Pod

Key Moments

TL;DR

H.R. McMaster discusses national security strategy, competition with Russia/China, countering extremism, and Iran policy.

Key Insights

Competition with states like Russia and China requires clear political objectives beyond mere competition.

Countering extremism necessitates an integrated approach, considering the population's perception of foreign forces.

Military actions must adhere to Just War theory principles of proportionality and discrimination.

US actions with Iran, particularly the JCPOA, had unintended consequences by strengthening hardliners.

Grand strategy involves assessing objectives, risks, resources, and implementing strategies with multiple options.

Understanding adversaries' motivations, such as fear and honor, is crucial for effective strategy.

Defining Grand Strategy and Objectives

H.R. McMaster begins by addressing the concept of competition as a grand strategy. He emphasizes that while documents may refer to competition with Russia and China, competition itself is insufficient without clearly defined political objectives. The development of integrated strategies involved identifying national security challenges, framing overarching goals, and then presenting multiple implementation options to the President, differentiated by risk, resources, and time.

Strategy Towards Russia

The strategy concerning Russia is built on three fundamental objectives: confronting destabilizing behavior, deterring conflict, and seeking areas of cooperation. Confronting destabilizing behavior involves imposing costs beyond what adversaries may anticipate. Deterrence includes countering Russia's 'new generation warfare' and employing deterrence by denial, which is based on convincing an adversary they cannot achieve their objectives through force, encompassing conventional, unconventional, and nuclear means. The withdrawal from the INF treaty is seen as a step to restore deterrent capabilities.

Role of DoD in Countering Extremism

Regarding the Department of Defense's role in countering violent extremism, McMaster acknowledges the concerns about the 'antibody thesis,' where foreign troop presence can be perceived as oppressive. He stresses the importance of clarifying intentions through words and deeds. The perception of US forces by local populations is critical, especially in contexts like Afghanistan, where the conflict is often misunderstood. It's essential to evaluate the degree to which forward deployment contributes to national security and its second and third-order effects.

Just War Theory and Ethical Military Conduct

McMaster highlights Just War theory, particularly the principles of jus in bello (justice in war), as foundational for military conduct. Key criteria include having a just end, proportionality in the application of force relative to risks and objectives, and discrimination between combatants and non-combatants. He states that an ethical war requires a clearly defined just end, and the military strives to adhere to these principles, often taking additional risks to protect civilians, treating individuals as ends rather than means.

Autonomous Weapons and Future Domains

In new domains of competition like space and cyberspace, and concerning future technologies, McMaster clarifies that Department of Defense policy prohibits the development of fully autonomous weapon systems. A human must remain 'in the loop' or 'on the loop' for any decision involving the application of lethal force. While acknowledging that war is confusing and unintended harm can occur, he maintains that the US military is imbued with the concepts mentioned and takes extra precautions to protect civilians.

US Policy Towards Iran

On Iran, McMaster critiques the Iran nuclear deal (JCPOA) for being based on flawed assumptions, primarily that engagement would moderate Iran's behavior. He argues the deal's sanctions relief provided an economic boon that strengthened the Revolutionary Guard, accelerating sectarian civil wars in the region. The strategy should be broader than just the nuclear issue, focusing on Iran's destructive activities like its missile program and support for terrorism, while addressing technical deficiencies in verification and inspection, and the sunset clause.

Shifting Iranian Regime Behavior

The desired outcome with Iran is not necessarily regime change, but a gradual shift in the regime's nature to cease its hostility towards the US, Israel, and the West. Evaluating decisions should be based on their contribution to this goal. McMaster emphasizes the need to understand the historical pattern of Iranian behavior since 1979, noting that the 'moderates' within the regime hold little power. Actions should not bolster the current regime, and credit for economic issues should be given to the government, not external parties.

Understanding Adversarial Motivations

A crucial element of strategic competence is understanding the motivations that drive adversaries. McMaster reiterates the historical reasons nations go to war: fear, honor, and interest. He applies this framework to Vladimir Putin, suggesting he is driven by a fear of the collapse of his kleptocratic order and a sense of lost honor. This deep understanding of adversaries' aspirations, cultural biases, and emotional drivers is essential for crafting effective national security strategies.

Mentioned in This Episode

●Organizations

●Concepts

●People Referenced

Common Questions

Competition, while part of strategy, is not sufficient on its own. A grand strategy requires clear political objectives and a comprehensive plan to achieve them, moving beyond simply engaging in competitive actions.

Topics

Grand Strategy Russia Strategy Deterrence By Denial Violent Extremism Military Deployment Just War Theory Iran Nuclear Deal

Mentioned in this video

organizationIRGC

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, mentioned as benefiting from poured money due to sanctions relief and controlling businesses, thus strengthening the Revolutionary Wing in Iran.

conceptRevolutionary Wing (Iran)

This faction within the Iranian government is seen as strengthened by sanctions relief from the JCPOA, controlling businesses and pouring funds into the IRGC. Their influence is noted to have won over so-called moderates.

legislationINF Treaty

The withdrawal from this treaty was considered part of the strategy to restore deterrent capability for intermediate missiles.

organizationNorth Korea

studyJCPOA