All-In's 2026 Predictions
All-In PodcastKey Moments
Predictions for 2026: AI, politics, business trends, and economic forecasts.
Key Insights
California's proposed asset seizure tax could drive wealth out of the state, impacting its budget.
The DSA is poised to take over the Democratic party, and Trump's economic policies are expected to drive a boom.
Democratic centrism and the tech industry are predicted to be political losers, while copper and IPOs are seen as business winners.
AI's impact on jobs is debated, with arguments for both displacement and increased demand for knowledge workers.
Geopolitical shifts in the Middle East and potential resolutions in conflicts are anticipated.
The rise of citizen journalism and a potential shift in media consumption are key trends.
CALIFORNIA'S ASSET TAX AND THE EXODUS
The podcast opens with a discussion about David Sacks' move to Austin, Texas, and the broader trend of people leaving California. A significant point of contention is California's proposed 'asset seizure tax,' which the hosts believe could lead to a substantial outflow of wealth from the state. They argue that such a tax, especially with its unclear valuation methods for illiquid assets like stock, would be punitive and could bankrupt companies. It is predicted that this tax, if it makes it to the ballot, will cause a 'rush for the exits' as more individuals and businesses seek more favorable economic environments.
POLITICAL LANDSCAPE SHIFTS
Predictions for the biggest political winners in 2026 point to the Democratic Socialists of America (DSA) solidifying their influence within the Democratic party. Conversely, Democratic centrism is seen as a significant loser due to the rise of progressive ideologies and gerrymandering that forces moderates to shift leftward. David Sacks forecasts a 'Trump boom' driven by positive economic indicators like low inflation, GDP growth, and falling unemployment, influencing political perceptions. The 'Mandami moment' is also highlighted as a rising progressive force, potentially capitalizing on Trump's perceived shift towards interventionism and neglecting the working class.
BUSINESS WINNERS AND LOSERS
For business winners in 2026, predictions include Huawei for its advancements in chip technology, and the poly market platform for its growing influence in predicting market events. Copper is highlighted as a critical element with soaring demand due to its use in data centers, chips, and weapon systems, facing potential supply shortages. The IPO market is expected to rebound strongly, with potentially trillions of dollars in new market capitalization. Amazon is identified as a potential winner due to its aggressive deployment of robots and efficient delivery systems. Conversely, hydrocarbons are predicted to be a poor performing asset due to the unstoppable trends of electrification and energy storage.
THE IMPACT OF AI AND LABOR MARKET DYNAMICS
The discussion around AI's effect on the job market is multifaceted. While Jason Calacanis predicts AI will displace young white-collar workers by automating entry-level tasks, others argue AI will increase demand for knowledge workers through ‘Jevans Paradox.’ Evidence is presented that even in fields like radiology, AI increases efficiency, leading to more scans and thus more overall work. A counter-argument suggests that recent graduates may face difficulties due to cultural issues and a lack of motivation rather than purely AI-driven job loss, with older workers being preferred for certain roles. Ultimately, the consensus leans towards a complex, multi-factorial challenge for young workers, emphasizing adaptability and AI tool proficiency.
GEOPOLITICAL AND ECONOMIC FORECASTS
In the geopolitical sphere, a contrarian belief suggests that Iran becoming an independent democratic state might lead to increased conflict among other Arab states vying for influence, potentially seeing Iran as a stabilizing force. The 'Trump doctrine' of unilateralism and economic resilience is projected as a significant trend, potentially driving massive GDP prints. In terms of asset performance, the US dollar faces challenges due to growing debt and increased military spending. A basket of critical metals is favored due to supply-demand dynamics. The possibility of Russia-Ukraine conflict settlement is raised, potentially bringing regional stability.
MEDIA TRENDS AND MARKET MECHANISMS
The most anticipated trend in media is the rise of citizen journalism and grassroots exposés facilitated by platforms like YouTube, X, and Substack, offering monetization paths. Investigative journalism is seen as increasingly vital. For entertainment, predictions include new films like Christopher Nolan's 'The Odyssey' and 'Avengers: Doomsday.' A shift away from traditional media toward independent creators distributing content on their own platforms is also noted. The podcast also touches on the potential for SpaceX to reverse merge into Tesla, and central banks exploring new cryptographic paradigms beyond gold and Bitcoin. Finally, the podcast celebrates reaching one million YouTube subscribers and anticipates a strong return of M&A and IPOs in 2026.
Mentioned in This Episode
●Supplements
●Tools & Products
●Books
●People Referenced
US Economic Indicators & Predictions for 2026
Data extracted from this episode
| Indicator | Q3 2025/Current | Prediction for 2026/Future | Source/Comment |
|---|---|---|---|
| Inflation | 2.7% | < 3% (closer to 2%) | Core CPI at 2.6%, 40 basis points below expectations |
| GDP Growth (Q3) | 4.3% | 5% (Sachs), 5-6.2% (Chamath), 4-5% (JCal, Freeberg) | Atlanta Fed Q4 GDP forecast climbed to 5.4% (Jan 8, 2026) |
| Job Cuts (Challenger Gray Report) | Dropped 50% from Nov, which was down 50% from Oct | Reduced due to AI and cultural phenomenon, but also more opportunities for AI-skilled | Significant drop |
| S&P 500 | Record highs | Expanding super cycle in tech, asset prices in general will do well | Continues to make record highs |
| Mortgage Costs | N/A | Fallen by $3,000 | Decreased |
| Real Wages | N/A | Up over $1,000 | Increased |
| Rate Cuts | N/A | Possibly 75 to 100 basis points by June | Expected in 2026 |
| Tax Refunds | N/A | Big refunds coming in April | Due to bigger standard deduction, no tax on tips/overtime/social security |
| Public Companies | Shrinking | Trillions of dollars of new market cap created by IPOs, reversal of trend | IPO boom expected |
| US Productivity | Surged 4.9% | Strongest reading in nearly 6 years | Significant jump |
| Oil Price (per barrel) | N/A | More likely to see $45 than $65 | Hydrocarbons predicted to be a poor performing asset due to electrification trends |
| Enterprise SAS Stock Performance (2025) | ServiceNow down 30%, Workday down 18%, DocuSign down 23%, Dropbox down 9%, Box down 6% | Shrink and contract aggressively due to AI advancements | Challenging year for the sector compared to S&P 500 up 17% |
Common Questions
The proposed wealth tax in California, particularly the super-voting stock provision which inflates the deemed value of shares for founders, could lead to a significant exodus of wealth from the state. It has already prompted many wealthy individuals and companies to consider leaving, potentially impacting social programs and the state budget negatively. The tax model also penalizes illiquid stock, which could bankrupt growing companies.
Topics
Mentioned in this video
An initiative launched on three continents to help young people start companies in response to the challenging job market.
An AI company that NVIDIA reportedly did a licensing deal with, and one of the AI companies potentially targeted for acquisition.
Enterprise SaaS company whose stock was down 6%, showing underperformance in the sector.
Sports analyst and podcaster, recently made a deal with Netflix to move his sports shows from YouTube to Netflix exclusively.
Anticipated movie, following the success of Dune Part 1 and 2.
Actor, mentioned for his role as Dr. Doom in the anticipated 'Avengers Doomsday' movie.
American stock exchange, expected to make moves in prediction markets.
Predicted to have a massive year in 2026 by replacing humans with robots and being the first 'corporate singularity.'
AI company considered a potential acquisition target for a Mag 7 company.
A TV show, its second season was mentioned as an anticipated media item (a 'Taylor show').
US Representative from California mentioned for his stance on the California wealth tax, causing controversy among progressives.
Predicted to be the biggest political winner of 2026, solidifying its influence over the Democratic party, similar to MAGA's impact on Republicans.
A US foreign policy concept predicted to be the biggest political loser of 2026, as Trump's approach is seen as a departure from its principles.
AI company that Google made a licensing deal with, seen as an alternative to traditional M&A.
A Chinese company that Facebook tried to acquire for $2.5 billion, but faced challenges due to its origin.
Infrastructure and tunnel construction company, mentioned as another asset Elon Musk might consolidate.
Enterprise SaaS company whose stock was down 30%, highlighting a challenging year for the sector.
Enterprise SaaS company whose stock was down 23%, illustrating the downturn in the sector.
Venture capital firm, its portfolio company Anduril is implicitly referred to as a potential IPO candidate.
Government documents related to John F. Kennedy's assassination, which have not yet been declassified.
Chinese semiconductor manufacturer, mentioned as a partner for Huawei in advancing in the chip stack.
A critical metal predicted to go "absolutely parabolic" due to global demand-supply dynamics, its usefulness in data centers, chips, and weapon systems.
AI company considered a potential acquisition target for a Mag 7 company.
Leading cryptocurrency, central banks may seek new cryptographic paradigms due to its limitations.
Construction and mining equipment manufacturer, mentioned in the context of capital equipment benefiting from accelerated depreciation.
A TV show, its second season was anticipated and received praise as the 'best TV show of the 21st century.'
Marvel comic character, Robert Downey Jr. is cast as him in 'Avengers Doomsday.'
Consulting firm whose CEO was interviewed, highlighting the challenge in corporate America of automating entry-level tasks.
AI startup considered a potential acquisition target for a Mag 7 company, also listed as a company that could go public.
Automotive and clean energy company, subject of a contrarian belief that SpaceX might reverse merge into it.
Enterprise SaaS company whose stock was down 9%, reflecting difficulties in the sector.
Sports media company, its shows and podcasts are moving to Netflix exclusively.
German multinational conglomerate, its stock is noted as being 'through the roof' due to the capital equipment market benefiting from accelerated depreciation.
A media property mentioned, with a positive prediction for its performance in 2026.
Actor mentioned as a big fan, in the context of Dune Part 3 and Avengers Doomsday.
Anticipated Marvel movie featuring Robert Downey Jr. as Dr. Doom, expected to tie up previous Marvel storylines.
Cryptocurrency exchange, mentioned as a company that could benefit from the prediction market trend and also doing 'more with less' with AI.
AI company mentioned as raising an up round at twice the valuation and potentially being acquired by a Mag 7 company.
Mentioned for its unsuccessful attempt to acquire Manis due to geopolitical reasons.
Investment firm, whose ability to buy houses might be restricted by a presidential initiative.
A TV show described as 'pretty great.'
Crowdfunding platform, mentioned as a monetization path for citizen journalism.
Chinese technology company predicted to be a biggest business winner, due to its efforts to partner with SMIC and deep dives into the chip stack.
Mentioned as having done IP licensing deals and potentially acquiring an AI startup.
AI company with which a large licensing deal was executed, serving as an example of IP license M&A workaround.
Brain-computer interface company, mentioned as another asset Elon Musk might consolidate.
Traditional asset class, central banks may seek new cryptographic paradigms due to its limitations.
Enterprise SaaS company whose stock was down 18%, indicating a challenging market.
Government documents related to Jeffrey Epstein, anticipated to be declassified.
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