How much revenue is Eli Lilly generating from GLP-1 drugs?

In Q2, Eli Lilly reported $8.1 billion in global sales for their GLP-1 drug Mounjaro, marking an 80% growth and making it the best-selling drug in the world.

What is the issue with the gray market for GLP-1 drugs?

A gray market, particularly in China, is producing counterfeit or unauthorized copies of GLP-1 drugs. This is a concern due to poor insurance coverage in some regions leading people to seek cheaper alternatives outside the regulated system.

Will Eli Lilly lower the price of its GLP-1 drugs?

Eli Lilly is committed to lowering prices, having already reduced out-of-pocket costs from $1000 to $499. They aim for single-digit deflation, with the introduction of oral versions expected to help further reduce costs and improve reimbursement.

How does Eli Lilly balance profitability with R&D investment?

Eli Lilly invests 25% of its sales, approximately $14.2 billion this year, into R&D. They believe in reinvesting profits into developing new medicines rather than solely returning capital to shareholders, as drug patents eventually expire.

Can GLP-1 drugs help with mental health and addiction?

Emerging research and anecdotal evidence suggest GLP-1 drugs may help with smoking cessation, gambling, and potentially conditions like bipolar disorder and major depressive disorder due to their impact on hedonic pathways.

What is the role of AI in medical research and information gathering?

AI tools like ChatGPT are increasingly used for research, empowering individuals to understand their health better. Eli Lilly also uses AI to audit its own drug information for accuracy, finding the models to be substantially improved.

What are PBMs and should they exist?

Pharmacy Benefit Managers (PBMs) exist to match insurance claims and negotiate drug discounts. While the negotiation aspect is valuable, their consolidation has led to prioritizing their own benefit over the customer's, leading to widespread dissatisfaction.

Inside the GLP-1 Gold Rush: Eli Lilly CEO on New Breakthroughs, Addiction & Mental Health, Pricing

All-In Podcast

Entertainment4 min read31 min video

Sep 29, 2025|108,439 views|1,573|73

chamath david sacks david friedberg jason calacanis all in podcast tech news politics election stocks stock market palihapitiya

Save to Pod

Key Moments

TL;DR

Eli Lilly CEO discusses GLP-1 drug success, pricing, R&D, counterfeits, and future health breakthroughs.

Key Insights

Eli Lilly's GLP-1 drugs, like Mounjaro, represent a significant breakthrough, with over 20 million people globally using prescription GLP-1s.

The company is actively working to reduce GLP-1 pricing, moving towards oral formulations and exploring single-digit deflation annually.

Eli Lilly is investing heavily in R&D (25% of sales) and supply chain expansion to maintain innovation and meet demand.

GLP-1 drugs are showing unexpected positive effects on addiction, mental health, and potentially other hedonic pathways.

Biotech VC funding has significantly decreased due to market saturation, low IPO liquidity, and competition from AI.

China's 'patent hacking' and subsidized biotech market pose challenges to intellectual property and global competition.

THE RISE OF GLP-1 AND ELI LILLY'S EARLY BET

Eli Lilly CEO Dave Ricks details the genesis of GLP-1 drugs, emphasizing it was not an overnight success but a long-term endeavor starting in 2006 with a twice-daily injection for diabetes. The company strategically evolved these drugs, improving convenience and efficacy for weight loss. A pivotal moment was the discovery of combining GLP-1 with another appetite-suppressing peptide, leading to Mounjaro. Despite initial hurdles, the scientific team recognized its potential, prompting a massive investment in clinical trials and manufacturing to scale production.

MARKET SUCCESS, PRICING CHALLENGES, AND COUNTERFEITS

The success of GLP-1s, with Mounjaro becoming the best-selling drug globally, has generated immense revenue for Eli Lilly. However, this surge has also created a significant demand exceeding supply, leading to a gray market and counterfeit products, particularly from China. Ricks acknowledges the high out-of-pocket costs for patients and commits to reducing them, aiming for single-digit annual deflation with new oral formulations. He stresses the importance of balancing price reductions with sustained R&D investment to fund future innovations.

CAPITAL ALLOCATION AND THE STRATEGY FOR FUTURE INNOVATION

Eli Lilly is navigating an 'asymmetric success' by strategically allocating its substantial cash flow. The company prioritizes investing in organic R&D, evidenced by its 4,200 PhD scientists, and significantly expanding its manufacturing and supply chain capabilities, including a commitment to US-based production. A portion is also allocated to acquiring external innovation through small to mid-sized acquisitions, particularly within the struggling biotech funding landscape.

THE BROKEN BIOTECH VENTURE LANDSCAPE AND CHINESE COMPETITION

The biotech venture capital market is described as a 'dumpster fire,' with funding plummeting from its peak. This downturn is attributed to a crowded venture market, an excess of poorly performing IPOs, and a general reluctance from investors to participate in a high-risk, slow-return industry. Compounding these issues, China's state-sponsored biotech sector, employing a 'swarm model' and aggressive 'patent hacking,' poses a significant competitive threat by reverse-engineering and rapidly developing similar, patent-circumventing compounds.

UNEXPECTED BENEFITS: ADDICTION, MENTAL HEALTH, AND BROADER APPLICATIONS

Beyond weight loss and diabetes management, GLP-1 drugs are exhibiting remarkable pleiotropic effects. Ricks highlights that patients in trials spontaneously reported reduced smoking, gambling, and online shopping. Emerging research, including a VA study, suggests significant potential for these drugs in treating addiction and improving mental health conditions like depression and bipolar disorder. Eli Lilly is actively pursuing these avenues with dedicated clinical studies, aiming to develop specific GLP-1 variants optimized for brain activity.

LIFESTYLE, HEALTH REGIMENS, AND THE FUTURE OF MEDICINE

Ricks emphasizes that optimal health stems from fundamental practices: good sleep, healthy eating (primarily plant-based), regular movement, and strong social relationships. While he hasn't personally used GLP-1s yet due to the typical pharmaceutical development path from extreme cases to general use, he anticipates a future where low-dose GLP-1s may be considered for preventive health in older adults. The company also closely monitors the burgeoning biohacking community, though its focus remains on FDA-approved clinical pathways.

REFORMING HEALTHCARE: FOOD SYSTEMS, ADVERTISING, AND PBM DEBATE

Ricks advocates for reforming the food system to make quality food more accessible and affordable, critiquing decades of anti-fat, high-carb dietary advice. He suggests a reduction in direct-to-consumer drug advertising, seeing it as a poorly regulated system that could be reallocated to R&D. Regarding Pharmacy Benefit Managers (PBMs), he notes their decline from essential IT and negotiation functions to entities solely focused on self-benefit, indicating a shift towards more transparent models.

THE ROLE OF AI AND THE FUTURE OF BRAIN HEALTH RESEARCH

Ricks views AI and large language models as powerful tools for research and self-education, which he uses himself for auditing drug information. He points out that while AI has improved significantly, transparency in its data sources and error correction remains a challenge. Looking ahead, Ricks identifies brain diseases as the next frontier for significant breakthroughs, citing the vast global human suffering they cause and the current lack of effective treatments, with research in this area being a strategic focus for future investment.

Mentioned in This Episode

●Software & Apps

●Companies

●Organizations

●Studies Cited

●Concepts

●People Referenced

Common Questions

GLP-1 drugs, like those developed by Eli Lilly, mimic a natural hormone to help regulate appetite and blood sugar. They have gained popularity for their effectiveness in weight loss and managing type 2 diabetes, with recent advancements including an oral pill format.

Topics

Eli Lilly Mounjaro Healthcare Pricing R&D NIH Funding PBMs

Mentioned in this video

personDave Ricks

CEO of Eli Lilly, discusses the development and success of GLP-1 drugs, pricing strategies, capital allocation, and future directions for the company.

conceptWolverine Protocol

Mentioned as part of the biohacking space, with people experimenting with various protocols.

conceptMaha Movement

Discussed in the context of American human health and reform efforts by HHS, particularly related to the food system.

organizationPBMs

Pharmacy Benefit Managers are discussed as entities that exist to match claims and negotiate bulk discounts, but have become customer-unfriendly.

productMounjaro

supplementSSRI

Found this useful? Build your knowledge library

Get AI-powered summaries of any YouTube video, podcast, or article in seconds. Save them to your personal pods and access them anytime.

Try Summify free