E3: Modern Cold War, politicizing the pandemic & more with David Sacks & David Friedberg

Sacks reported that Craft Ventures has been operating remotely and successfully, having closed four to five deals since the quarantine began, primarily using Zoom and Yammer for collaboration.

Friedberg noted that his hardware and lab companies experienced operational pauses, whereas his larger food businesses in the supply chain are doing exceptionally well, benefiting from a focus on fundamentals.

The panel discussed three key shifts: the infection fatality rate is significantly lower than initially reported (closer to 0.5% than 6%), populations under 60 without pre-existing conditions have a much lower risk (50x less likely to have severe outcomes), and widespread mask-wearing is sufficient to control the virus's spread.

The speakers attributed politicization to the left potentially hoping to oust Trump and the red states prioritizing economic recovery over lockdowns. The debate has devolved into a culture war, making rational policy difficult, with differing views on lockdowns and mask-wearing.

Sacks anticipates a two to three-year process to return to pre-pandemic employment levels, acknowledging potential risks if other economic 'shoes drop.' He also noted that unemployment numbers might be artificially low due to people leaving the workforce.

While a second wave is expected, the panel believes it's unlikely to reach the intensity seen in New York City due to behavioral changes, increased mask-wearing, and lower population density in most other areas. A 'slow steady burn' is more probable.

The speakers suggest remote work could break Silicon Valley's network effect, making places like San Francisco less attractive due to high costs and existing issues like homelessness and crime. Companies might become more profitable by cutting office space and hiring from a wider talent pool.

The panel views this as the beginning of a 'modern Cold War,' with decoupling from China becoming a bipartisan issue. Dependence on China for strategic goods like PPE and medicines is seen as unsustainable, leading to a push for reshoring manufacturing and more reciprocal trade.

China faces significant liability, particularly for allowing travel from Wuhan to the world while restricting internal travel. While holding them legally accountable is difficult due to sovereign immunity, popular opinion may shift, leading to actions like restricting Huawei's 5G access.

The panel argued that the pandemic has highlighted how onerous regulation can hinder innovation. There's a hope that this crisis will lead to deregulation and accelerated adoption of new technologies, particularly in areas like gene editing and advanced manufacturing.

Recent findings suggest that 40-60% of the population may have pre-existing activated T-cells to SARS-CoV-2 due to prior common cold coronaviruses, which could explain why a significant portion of people are asymptomatic.