What kind of threats did the war games simulate?

The war games focused on threats to democracy and the rule of law, such as using federal agencies to prosecute political enemies, leveraging the IRS against non-profits, deploying federal troops to quell domestic protests, or initiating mass expulsions of migrants.

Can governors or state officials effectively resist an authoritarian president?

Yes, governors and state attorneys general can act as independent sources of authority to resist federal overreach. However, they need to be well-informed about their specific legal boundaries and authorities, as these are not always clearly defined.

Do laws alone protect democracy from authoritarianism?

The Trump years revealed that many contingencies are protected by norms rather than strict laws. When norms are bypassed, the legal framework may not be sufficient to prevent abuses of power, highlighting the importance of both laws and ethical standards.

What are the concerns about election integrity and voter ID laws?

Critics argue that claims of election integrity issues are often used to disenfranchise voters, particularly minorities and the poor, who may lack required documentation like birth certificates or passports. The proposed 'Save Act' in the US is cited as an example of a measure addressing a non-existent problem of non-citizen voting while creating new barriers for eligible voters.

How might election certification be politicized?

New legislative efforts in states like Georgia seek to give partisan election officials the power to refuse certification and conduct investigations, which was previously a ministerial function. This shift from a non-partisan process to one controlled by political party members opens avenues for mischief, delaying, or potentially overturning election results.

What outcome is most likely in the November election?

The consensus is that the election will likely be decided by a very small number of voters in a few key swing states like Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, or North Carolina. Polls indicate these states are neck and neck, suggesting the winning margin could be in the tens of thousands of votes or even smaller.

What happens if the election results are very close?

A close election outcome, regardless of who wins, carries a significant risk of half the country refusing to accept the results. While the Trump-aligned movement is seen as having been more deliberately engineered around election denial, a narrow loss could also lead to significant distrust and challenges from Democrats.

Key Moments

Stress Testing Our Democracy: A Conversation with Barton Gellman (Episode #384)

Sam Harris

Science & Technology4 min read41 min video

Sep 23, 2024|54,783 views|954|720

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Key Moments

TL;DR

Wargames reveal US democracy is vulnerable to authoritarianism; laws are insufficient, norms are weak, and state resistance is key.

Key Insights

Wargames simulating an authoritarian president showed that current laws are often insufficient, relying more on norms that can be easily broken.

State-level actors like Governors and Attorneys General hold significant power to resist federal overreach, but they need clear understanding of their authorities.

Concerns about election integrity are frequently used as a pretext to suppress votes, particularly among minority and low-income populations.

Political control over election certification processes introduces opportunities for mischief, chaos, and potentially overturning election results.

A landslide election victory, while unlikely, would significantly reduce controversies and disputes, making the outcome clearer.

Pro-democracy advocates and legal experts are actively preparing for potential challenges to democratic institutions, but more work remains.

TRANSITION FROM JOURNALISM TO ACTIVISM

Barton Gellman, a Pulitzer Prize-winning journalist, has shifted from reporting on threats to democracy to actively defending it. After years of writing about existential dangers, particularly concerning Donald Trump's potential post-election actions, Gellman joined the Brennan Center for Justice. His motivation was to move from observation to action, stepping off the sidelines to contribute to safeguarding democratic institutions and civil rights.

WARGAMES SIMULATING AUTHORITARIAN PRESIDENCY

Gellman spearheaded the Democracy Futures project, a series of five tabletop exercises or 'wargames,' involving approximately 175 former officials and civil society leaders. These games modeled scenarios of an authoritarian president attempting to consolidate power, testing the ability of pro-democracy advocates to restrain such a leader across multiple rounds of response and counter-response.

FOCUS ON DEMOCRACY-THREATENING ACTIONS

The wargames deliberately excluded ordinary policy disputes, focusing instead on actions that posed direct threats to democracy and the rule of law. Simulated actions included using federal agencies like the Department of Justice for political prosecution, employing anti-trust actions against media-owning companies, and mobilizing federal troops for domestic protest suppression or mass migrant expulsions.

THE FRAGILITY OF NORMS VERSUS LAWS

A key takeaway from the Trump years and the wargames is the crucial difference between laws and norms. While laws provide formal constraints, many actions that could be abuses of power were not explicitly prohibited, relying instead on unwritten norms of conduct. When these norms are disregarded, as seen during the Trump presidency, the system's ability to self-correct is significantly weakened.

STATE-LEVEL RESISTANCE AND ITS LIMITATIONS

The exercises highlighted the potential power of state-level officials, such as Governors and State Attorneys General, to resist federal overreach. However, it was also revealed that many officials lack a clear understanding of the boundaries of their authority. Preparatory work and clear legal frameworks are necessary for them to effectively challenge federal actions that threaten civil liberties or election integrity.

ELECTION INTEGRITY AS A VOTER SUPPRESSION TOOL

Gellman argues that claims of election 'integrity' are often a pretext for voter suppression, particularly targeting Democratic-leaning voters. Proposals like strict voter ID laws, such as the SAVE Act, are presented as solutions to non-existent problems like widespread non-citizen voting. In reality, these measures disproportionately disenfranchise minority and low-income citizens who may lack necessary documentation like birth certificates or passports.

POLITICAL CONTROL OVER ELECTION CERTIFICATIONS

A new front in the battle for election integrity involves efforts to politicize the certification of election results. In states like Georgia, new rules allow partisan election officials to refuse certification and launch investigations. This shifts a ministerial function, historically handled by non-partisan administrators or courts, to potentially partisan actors, opening avenues for delay, chaos, and attempts to overturn election outcomes.

THE UNLIKELY BUT IMPACTFUL ROLE OF A LANDSLIDE

While most projections suggest the upcoming election will be close, a landslide victory for either candidate would significantly diminish the impact of election disputes. Election administrators often 'pray for a landslide' because clear, overwhelming results render minor controversies, such as ballot dropbox security or specific voting procedure complaints, largely irrelevant, thereby reinforcing the legitimacy of the outcome.

SYMMETRY IN POTENTIAL ELECTION DISPUTES

Although Donald Trump's base has a more established history of contesting election results, there is a potential symmetry in how Democrats might react to a loss. Influential Democrats and voters could challenge outcomes, attempt to block certifications, and claim widespread cheating. However, Gellman believes these challenges would likely not represent a majority within the Democratic party, unlike the more organized efforts seen on the right.

ONGOING PREPARATION AND FUTURE CHALLENGES

Pro-democracy organizations and legal experts are actively engaged in preparing for potential post-election challenges and authoritarian overreach. Efforts include lobbying for protective legislation, engaging in litigation against restrictive laws, and educating state officials on their powers. Despite significant progress, Gellman emphasizes that 'plenty more work to be done' to fortify democratic defenses.

Mentioned in This Episode

●Companies

●Organizations

●Books

●Concepts

●People Referenced

Common Questions

The Democracy Futures Project is a series of tabletop exercises or war games designed by the Brennan Center for Justice. These games simulate scenarios where an authoritarian president is elected, testing how pro-democracy advocates and government institutions would respond to restrain their power.

Topics

Society & Philosophy Rule Of Law Election Integrity Politics & Policy Democratic Norms Voter Identification Election Certification Presidential Elections

Mentioned in this video

Concepts

Democracy Futures Project

A project run by the Brennan Center for Justice involving tabletop exercises (war games) to test responses to an authoritarian president.

Los Angeles Times Book Award

An award that Barton Gellman won for his book 'Angler: The Cheney Vice Presidency'.

Organizations

The Atlantic

A magazine where Barton Gellman previously worked as a staff writer, focusing on political issues.

NYU School of Law

The law school associated with New York University, where the Brennan Center for Justice is based.

Brennan Center for Justice

A non-partisan law and policy institute that works on democracy and civil rights. Barton Gellman is a senior advisor there.

Internal Revenue Service

The US tax agency, mentioned as an entity an authoritarian president might use to challenge the tax exemptions of nonprofits.

People

Christie Todd Whitman

Former Republican Governor of New Jersey who participated in the war games, specifically in a scenario involving federalizing the National Guard.

John F. Kennedy

Mentioned in the context of using the National Guard during the desegregation of Southern universities.

Brad Raffensperger

The Republican Secretary of State in Georgia who refused Trump's request to 'find votes' to overturn the 2020 election results.

Kamala Harris

Vice President and Democratic candidate in the upcoming election, discussed in the context of election outcomes and potential challenges to results.

Elon Musk

Mentioned as someone who, along with Trump, has raised concerns about election integrity.

Donald Trump

Former US President whose potential authoritarian agenda and actions are discussed, including his role in election integrity debates and the prospect of a second term.

Michael Waldman

President of the Brennan Center for Justice, whom Barton Gellman contacted about joining to protect the election.

Sam Harris

Host of the Making Sense podcast, interviewing Barton Gellman. He is the host and creator of the podcast.

Jeff Bezos

Owner of Amazon and The Washington Post, mentioned as a potential target for antitrust actions by an authoritarian president.

Joe Biden

The candidate who won the 2020 election, whose electoral votes were secured by the certification actions of individuals like the Republican on the Michigan State Board of Elections.

Tony Evers

Democratic Governor of Wisconsin who vetoed legislation that would have politicized the vote count.

Media

The Washington Post

A major newspaper where Barton Gellman previously worked as a staff writer.

Locations

North Carolina

A swing state that could be a tipping point in the upcoming election, with polls showing a very close race.

Florida

Mentioned in the context of the 2000 election, which was decided by a very narrow margin.

Pennsylvania

One of the key swing states expected to be a tipping point in the upcoming election, with polls showing a very close race.

Michigan

A swing state that could be a tipping point in the upcoming election, with polls showing a very close race.

Wisconsin

A swing state that could be a tipping point in the election, where the Democratic governor vetoed legislation to politicize the vote count.

Books

Dark Mirror: Edward Snowden and the American Surveillance State

A book authored by Barton Gellman about Edward Snowden and government surveillance.

Angler: The Cheney Vice Presidency

A book by Barton Gellman about Dick Cheney's vice presidency, which won the Los Angeles Times book award.

Project 2025

A policy agenda developed by conservative organizations, written by former Trump administration officials, which informed the war games' simulation of a presidential agenda.

Legislation & Policy

John Lewis Voting Rights Improvement Act

A proposed voting rights act that the Brennan Center prioritizes, aiming to improve access to voting.

Freedom to Vote Act

A piece of proposed legislation that the Brennan Center prioritizes, aimed at expanding voting rights.

Save Act

A proposed bill, ostensibly to stop non-citizens from voting, which requires voters to present a birth certificate or passport, potentially disenfranchising many.

Companies

Amazon

A major e-commerce company whose potential antitrust actions by an authoritarian president were discussed in the war games.