Serhii Plokhy: History of Ukraine, Russia, Soviet Union, KGB, Nazis & War | Lex Fridman Podcast #415

The collapse of the Soviet Union involved multiple factors often confused with each other: the ideological collapse of communism, the end of the Cold War, and the fall of the Soviet state itself. Serhii Plokhy emphasizes the continuing collapse of the Russian Empire, driven by geography, economics, and national identity, rather than solely ideological reasons or US pressure.

The United States did not actively seek the collapse of the Soviet Union due to concerns about nuclear weapons and maintaining a stable international partner. President George H.W. Bush even warned Ukrainians against independence. The US pressure was part of the Cold War, but the internal dynamics of the Soviet disintegration were more significant.

Ukraine's independence referendum on December 1, 1991, was a pivotal moment. As the second-largest Soviet republic culturally and economically close to Russia, its departure made the continuation of the Soviet project unpalatable for Russia, especially under Boris Yeltsin, who feared being outnumbered by Muslim republics.

Kievan Rus' was a major medieval European state, founded by Vikings, that served as a trade outpost and later the capital of a vast territory. It created a common historical mythology, legal codes, accepted Christianity from Byzantium, and laid the foundations for the dynastic and linguistic traditions that later influenced Russian, Ukrainian, and Belarusian national identities.

Stepan Bandera was a radical Ukrainian nationalist leader in the 1920s-1930s who actively sought Ukrainian independence. He organized assassinations of Polish officials and collaborated with Nazi Germany early in WWII, hoping for an independent Ukraine. His imprisonment by the Nazis later complicates his image. He is seen by some as a hero of resistance against Soviet occupation and by others as a fascist collaborator.

Serhii Plokhy states that while there are Nazis and white supremacists in Ukraine, their influence is extremely marginal, even less so than in some Central European and Western countries. He notes that no far-right party has crossed the electoral barrier to enter the Ukrainian parliament, highlighting Ukraine's unique political landscape, even amidst war.

'Denazification' is a propaganda tool that leverages the powerful Soviet mythology of fighting fascism in WWII. It aims to evoke an emotional response in the Russian population, framing the war as a righteous fight. However, Plokhy argues that if widespread Nazism were the real goal, the war would likely be against countries like France with more significant far-right movements.

The KGB's power fluctuated. In the late 1950s-early 1960s, Khrushchev sought to limit its influence. However, by the 1970s, under Andropov, the KGB became very powerful, with its leaders becoming key members of the Politburo's inner circle. It had extensive domestic surveillance and foreign operations, and its methods and mindset heavily influenced those who later came to power, like Putin.

Key events include Ukraine's Orange Revolution (2004) and Revolution of Dignity (2013), both protests against pro-Russian governments and falsified elections. Russia's pressure on Ukraine not to sign an Association Agreement with the EU in 2013 was a critical trigger. When Ukraine opted for a pro-Western path, Russia responded by annexing Crimea and initiating a 'hybrid warfare' in Donbas to destablize Ukraine.

Before 2014, Ukraine was largely bilingual with regional dominance. The war has significantly shifted the balance towards Ukrainian, especially among the younger generation, as a marker of identity and a rejection of Russian aggression. While linguistic practices are conservative, the current war's impact suggests Ukrainian is likely to rise in prominence.

Russian identity historically formed around the state, viewing it as imperial. Ukrainian national identity, conversely, emerged often in opposition to foreign states and was shaped by managing diverse cultures from different empires. This fostered a political 'DNA' of successful rebellion and decentralized governance, leading to a strong association with a democratic state and armed forces, a new development in its history.

The Holodomor was a massive famine in Ukraine between 1932-1934, caused by Stalin's forced collectivization of agriculture and a deliberate attack on Ukrainian culture. It represents a tragic example of 20th-century ideologies that devalued human life, resulting in millions of deaths. Plokhy argues humanity has not fully learned its lessons from such events.

Despite nuclear energy's statistical safety, political, social, and cultural factors still make it vulnerable to accidents. Issues like authoritarian regimes, secrecy, cutting corners, and inexperienced engineers increase risk. Furthermore, war (as seen in Ukraine with Chernobyl and Zaporizhzhia) can directly imperil nuclear sites. Each major accident triggers global freezes and anti-nuclear mobilization, making it politically unreliable.