Key Moments

Leslie Kaelbling: Reinforcement Learning, Planning, and Robotics | Lex Fridman Podcast #15

Lex FridmanLex Fridman
Science & Technology5 min read62 min video
Mar 12, 2019|46,879 views|976|45
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TL;DR

Leslie Kaelbling discusses AI, RL, robotics, planning, and the future of intelligence.

Key Insights

1

AI research oscillates between different approaches and problem definitions.

2

Symbolic reasoning and neural networks are not mutually exclusive; a combination is likely optimal.

3

Abstraction is crucial for planning and reasoning, enabling complex tasks by reducing state spaces.

4

Modeling uncertainty with MDPs and POMDPs is essential for real-world robotics.

5

Belief space reasoning is vital for agents that need to actively gather information.

6

Human-level intelligence likely requires a combination of learned and pre-built structures, not just end-to-end learning.

FROM PHILOSOPHY TO ROBOTICS

Leslie Kaelbling's journey into AI began with a fascination for "Gödel, Escher, Bach" and the idea of complex systems arising from simple parts. Her undergraduate degree in philosophy, particularly the Symbolic Systems program at Stanford, provided a strong foundation in logic and formal semantics, which proved highly relevant to AI. A pivotal moment occurred when she was hired at SRI to work on a robot, moving from theoretical interest to practical application. This experience ignited her passion for robotics and the challenges of making machines 'do stuff'.

THE LEGACY OF SHAKEY AND EARLY ROBOTICS

Kaelbling recounts her early work with 'Flakey,' a successor to the iconic 'Shakey' robot. Shakey, despite its age, incorporated foundational AI concepts like A* search, symbolic planning, and vision-based localization. While Flakey had its own challenges, the process of reinventing wheels and learning from scratch was invaluable. This hands-on experience highlighted the practical difficulties of robot control and sensing, emphasizing that theory must be grounded in reality.

THE EVOLUTION OF AI APPROACHES

The history of AI, as seen by Kaelbling, is characterized by oscillations in fashion, moving from cybernetics and control to expert systems and back. She notes that when a particular approach falters, it's common to change not just methods but also the problem itself, sometimes shelving difficult problems for later. The challenges of expert systems, for instance, stemmed from the difficulty humans have in articulating their knowledge, especially tacit knowledge that underpins perception and common sense.

ABSTRACTION AS A KEY TO PLANNING

Kaelbling stresses the critical role of abstraction in AI and robotics. To tackle complex problems, it's necessary to reduce the size of the state space and the planning horizon. Abstractions in space, time, and goals allow for high-level planning without needing to reason about every minute detail. While humans excel at creating these taxonomies, Kaelbling believes future machine learning will enable algorithms to automatically construct useful abstractions, facilitating more sophisticated reasoning.

MODELING UNCERTAINTY: MDPS AND POMDPS

The real world is fraught with uncertainty, making probabilistic models essential. Markov Decision Processes (MDPs) model systems where the current state is fully known, but the transitions are probabilistic. Partially Observable Markov Decision Processes (POMDPs) extend this to scenarios where the state is not fully known, requiring agents to reason based on observations and a history of actions and beliefs. Kaelbling emphasizes that while these models can be computationally intractable, they provide a crucial framework for understanding and tackling complex planning problems under uncertainty.

BELIEF SPACE AND INFORMATION GATHERING

Reasoning in 'belief space' is vital for problems requiring deliberate information gathering. Instead of just controlling the world state, agents in belief space control their own beliefs about the world. This means actions can be taken not just to achieve a goal, but to reduce uncertainty or gather information. Kaelbling uses the example of a self-driving car deciding when to check its surroundings, illustrating how the trade-off between taking an action and gathering information is central to intelligent behavior.

HIERARCHICAL PLANNING AND LONG HORIZONS

Hierarchical planning leverages abstraction to manage long-term goals. By breaking down tasks into temporal segments and abstracting state spaces, high-level plans can be formed and executed. Kaelbling suggests that humans develop an intuition for the feasibility of sub-goals, enabling them to plan for complex endeavors like a PhD or navigating an airport. The challenge lies in acquiring and generalizing these abstract models to predict the difficulty and duration of intermediate steps effectively.

THE CHALLENGE OF PERCEPTION AND REPRESENTATION

Perception, according to Kaelbling, is challenging primarily due to the problem of representation. While recent strides have been made in tasks like image classification, understanding what perception should deliver for a truly intelligent agent remains unclear. She advocates for building in 'biases' similar to convolution, but addressing other aspects of reasoning, such as object permanence and relational representations, to create more efficient learning systems.

THE QUESTION OF CONSCIOUSNESS AND SELF-AWARENESS

When considering human-level intelligence in robots, Kaelbling believes consciousness and self-awareness, as commonly understood, are not immediate necessities. She would be content with 'zombie' robots that behave indistinguishably from humans. However, she acknowledges that some level of self-monitoring and observation of system components, which could be termed a form of self-awareness, is critical for complex systems.

THE FUTURE OF AI RESEARCH AND PUBLISHING

Kaelbling expresses a pragmatic view on the future of AI, emphasizing the need for a combination of learned and pre-built components rather than pure end-to-end learning. She founded the Journal of Machine Learning Research (JMLR) to address issues of cost and access in academic publishing, championing open-access models. She also discusses the challenges of scientific publication, noting the shift of research towards shorter horizons and the potential loss of deep, long-term exploration.

ENGINEERING OBJECTIVE FUNCTIONS AND VALUE ALIGNMENT

A significant near-term challenge in AI is moving from engineering algorithms to engineering objective functions. Kaelbling highlights the importance of value alignment, ensuring the goals of AI systems align with human objectives. This involves careful consideration of what we wish for, as poorly defined objectives can lead to undesirable outcomes. She also acknowledges the potential impact on employment but defers to experts in sociology and economics on that front.

THE MOST COMPELLING RESEARCH QUESTIONS

For Kaelbling, the most exciting research area is determining the optimal combination of learning and pre-defined structures in engineered intelligent systems. She views AI development as climbing an increasingly high landscape, despite inevitable 'winters.' The focus is on finding the 'middle ground' between purely programmatic approaches and massive neural networks, emphasizing a pragmatic, engineering-driven path to creating functional robots.

Common Questions

Leslie Kaelbling's early fascination with AI was sparked by reading Douglas Hofstadter's 'Gödel, Escher, Bach' in high school, which introduced her to the concept of building complex ideas from simple parts. This was later complemented by her practical experience in robotics.

Topics

Mentioned in this video

Concepts
Markov Decision Processes

A mathematical framework for modeling decision-making in situations where outcomes are partly random and partly under the control of a decision-maker. It assumes the current state contains all necessary information about the future.

Symbolic Systems

A sub-major at Stanford that combines logic, model theory, and formal semantics of natural language, considered excellent preparation for AI and computer science.

expert systems

AI systems from the 1980s that attempted to capture human expertise in specific domains using logic and rules. Kaelbling notes their limitations due to the difficulty of human knowledge articulation and superficial understanding.

Reinforcement Learning

A machine learning paradigm where agents learn through trial and error by receiving rewards or penalties for their actions. Kaelbling mentions 'reinventing' it at SRI and humorously referring to rewards as 'pleasures'.

Cybernetics

An early field in AI that focused on control and homeostasis, inspiring robots that could maintain equilibrium or seek resources like power.

IJCAI Computers and Thought Award

An award that Leslie Kaelbling received, recognizing her contributions to artificial intelligence.

Partially Observable Markov Decision Processes

An extension of MDPs where the current state is not fully known, requiring agents to reason based on a history of observations and actions while managing uncertainty.

Turing Test

A test of a machine's ability to exhibit intelligent behavior equivalent to, or indistinguishable from, that of a human. Kaelbling dismisses it as a distracter from practical robot development.

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