How does a lack of strategic competence manifest in foreign policy?

A lack of strategic competence is seen in the contradictory and inconsistent employment of national power elements. For example, announcing withdrawal schedules from Afghanistan while simultaneously seeking negotiations with the Taliban demonstrates a failure to integrate efforts towards clear objectives.

What was the key to the successful strategy during the Iraq surge in 2007?

The success in Iraq during 2007 involved developing a clear political strategy to foster accommodation between Shia and Sunni communities. This required militarily breaking the cycle of violence, aggressively targeting irreconcilables, reforming security sectors, and implementing a non-sectarian governance and informational campaign.

How have terrorist organizations adapted with increased internet access?

Increased internet access allows terrorist organizations to communicate more effectively and operate in a more dispersed manner, making them more resilient. They are also exploring access to more destructive weapons like biological and chemical agents, posing a significant step-change in threat.

What is the US's long-term strategy towards China?

The US strategy aims to prevent the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) from gaining a military advantage, establishing exclusionary zones of primacy in the Indo-Pacific, and conducting genocide or threatening neighbors. It also seeks to weaken the CCP's resources and influence.

Should the US make it easier for Chinese students to study and work in the US?

Paradoxically, the speaker suggests making it easier for Chinese graduate students and scientists to obtain visas and stay in the US, aiming for a 'brain drain' effect as China is currently not an attractive destination for immigrants.

Why do some Chinese people and officials view the US as trying to keep China down?

From a Chinese perspective, after enduring the 'century of humiliation,' they see their current rise as regaining national pride. Some view US actions as attempts to prevent China from achieving equality or global predominance, fearing a return to a state of weakness and instability.

How does Xi Jinping's narrative differ from the speaker's view of China's progress?

Xi Jinping's narrative credits the CCP with saving China from humiliation and driving its progress. The speaker, however, views China's progress as the achievement of the Chinese people, aided by the US, and attributes suffering to Mao's policies and the current CCP's actions.

H.R. McMaster on Strategic Competition with China | Ch 3 HISPBC

Hoover Institution

Education4 min read25 min video

Nov 10, 2022|44,469 views|37|6

Hoover Institution Hoover Institute Hoover H.R. McMaster Military War Strategy Strategic empathy National security China

Save to Pod

Key Moments

TL;DR

H.R. McMaster discusses strategic competition with China and the neo-isolationist movement.

Key Insights

Neo-isolationism in the US stems from a loss of confidence due to prolonged military engagements and economic shifts.

US strategy against China should focus on negative objectives: preventing military advantage, curbing expansionism, and addressing human rights.

Effective strategy requires integrating all elements of national power and partnered efforts, grounded in a clear political theory of success.

Terrorist organizations are leveraging technology for increased effectiveness, resilience, and potential access to WMDs.

US strategy should weaken the CCP by limiting its resources and influence globally, while encouraging a 'brain drain' of talent to the US.

The CCP narrative of historical victimhood and party salvation is a deliberate ideological tool to legitimize its power and global ambitions.

THE RISE OF NEO-ISOLATIONISM AND LOSS OF CONFIDENCE

The neo-isolationist movement in the US, particularly on the right, stems from a profound loss of confidence in the nation's ability to sustain diplomatic, economic, and military engagements abroad. This sentiment is partly a reaction to the protracted and difficult wars in Afghanistan and Iraq following 9/11, compounded by the 2008 financial crisis and significant job losses attributed to China's entry into the World Trade Organization. Social media's role in amplifying extreme content and increasing political partisanship has further eroded a cohesive foreign policy vision, leading to a sense of resignation and pessimism.

STRATEGIC COMPETITION: DEFINING NEGATIVE OBJECTIVES

H.R. McMaster outlines a US strategy against China focused on 'negative objectives' – aiming to prevent undesirable outcomes. These include preventing China from gaining a military advantage, particularly in developing next-generation weapons, and countering its industrial espionage. A crucial objective is to prevent China from establishing zones of primacy and creating client states that allow it to reshape global rules in favor of its authoritarian, mercantilist system. This involves countering initiatives like the 'Belt and Road' and the debt traps associated with it, as well as mitigating the use of corruption and the export of surveillance technology.

HUMANITARIAN GOALS AND WEAKENING THE CCP

Beyond geopolitical and military concerns, US strategy should incorporate a humanitarian objective: reducing China's capacity to commit genocide, as seen with the Uyghur population, and diminishing its ability to extinguish freedoms in places like Hong Kong. The overarching goal is to weaken and reduce the resources available to the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) leadership that it uses against the interests of the US and the free world. This strategy also involves actively screening Chinese investments, implementing more robust export controls, and paradoxically, making it easier for Chinese scientists and students to gain visas and remain in the US to foster a 'brain drain'.

INTEGRATING NATIONAL POWER AND POLITICAL STRATEGY

Effective strategy, especially in complex conflict environments like Iraq, necessitates the integration of all elements of national power—military, diplomatic, economic, and law enforcement—along with the efforts of like-minded partners. A foundational political strategy is paramount, defining the 'political theory of success' and guiding the application of other power elements. This involves identifying obstacles to progress, understanding the drivers of conflict, and fashioning a coherent approach that, for instance, seeks to foster accommodation between sectarian groups by addressing cycles of violence and reforming security institutions.

EVOLUTION OF TERRORIST ORGANIZATIONS AND COUNTER-TERRORISM

The nature of terrorist organizations has evolved significantly, with greater internet access facilitating decentralization in operations and recruitment. Encrypted communications enhance their ability to operate dispersedly and resiliently, making them harder to disrupt. A particularly concerning trend is their potential access to the world's most destructive weapons, including biological and chemical agents. Counter-terrorism strategy must therefore involve more aggressive engagement with partners abroad, recognizing that sustained pressure is necessary to prevent these groups from gaining the space and resources to plan and execute more devastating attacks.

THE CCP NARRATIVE AND CHALLENGING IDEOLOGY

The CCP promotes a narrative of historical humiliation followed by the party's salvation of China, a portrayal that McMaster disputes. He argues that the significant progress in China is due to the efforts of the Chinese people and external support, not solely the CCP, which he attributes to immense suffering under leaders like Mao. Xi Jinping's ideology, focusing on national rejuvenation at the expense of the free world, is viewed as a significant threat. The CCP manipulates history to legitimize its rule, creating an ideological challenge that the free world must understand and counter, particularly by recognizing the CCP's determination to pursue its vision through means that undermine global stability and freedom.

Mentioned in This Episode

●Software & Apps

●Organizations

●Books

●People Referenced

Common Questions

The neo-isolationist movement largely stems from a loss of confidence in the US's ability to protect its interests abroad, fueled by the difficult and lengthy wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, the 2008 financial crisis, job losses due to trade with China, and the polarizing effects of social media and partisan politics.

Topics

Neo-isolationism Strategic Competence China Strategy CCP History Of Warfare Human Rights

Mentioned in this video

personGeorge Packer

Author of 'The Unwinding,' a book cited as illustrating economic transitions that left parts of the American population behind, contributing to the rise of figures like Donald Trump.

bookHow Terrorism Ends

A book by Audrey Cronin discussing the end of terrorist organizations.

bookThe Unwinding

A book by George Packer that illustrates economic transitions and the resulting impact on American populations, predating Trump but showing his rise.

personBen Rhodes

Mentioned as a reference point for the paradoxical arguments made by the neo-isolationist far-right, suggesting a similarity in talking points.

organizationAl Qaeda in Iraq

A salafi jihadist group strengthened by the sectarian civil war in Iraq, which portrayed itself as a protector of Sunni communities.

personAudrey Cronin

Author of books on terrorism, including 'How Terrorism Ends' and her latest work on how terrorist organizations are evolving, which is highly recommended.

groupUyghur population

Mentioned in the context of China's human rights abuses, specifically genocide, as a humanitarian objective for US international strategy.

organizationIran