Key Moments

E162: Live from Davos! Milei goes viral, Adam Neumann's headwinds, streaming's broken model & more

All-In PodcastAll-In Podcast
People & Blogs4 min read99 min video
Jan 19, 2024|386,952 views|7,631|836
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TL;DR

Davos highlights: Milei's speech, Jamie Dimon on Trump, Boeing's issues, Adam Neumann's struggles, and a broken streaming model.

Key Insights

1

Davos has lost its luster, with attendees feeling shame and apologizing for going, while the event itself has become a superficial display of irony.

2

Javier Milei's speech denouncing collectivism and Jamie Dimon's comments supporting Trump's policies were notable for contradicting the prevailing Davos consensus.

3

Boeing's safety issues and price gouging on parts are linked to regulatory capture and a lack of competition, creating a dangerous duopoly.

4

Adam Neumann's new venture, Flow, faces financial headwinds due to high-value acquisitions, floating-rate debt, and rising interest rates, mirroring past issues.

5

The streaming business model is fundamentally broken due to high churn rates, subscription overload, and excessive content spending, leading to price hikes and consolidation.

6

Microplastic contamination in beverages from plastic bottles is significant, raising health concerns about cellular disruption, though conclusive evidence of widespread harm is still developing.

DAVOS'S DECLINING RELEVANCE AND VIRAL MOMENTS

The World Economic Forum in Davos has lost its appeal, with attendees now feeling embarrassed to be associated with the event. This year, the focus was on 'rebuilding trust,' which the hosts found ironic given past events. Viral moments included Javier Milei's speech denouncing collectivism and Jamie Dimon's surprisingly positive remarks on Donald Trump's policies, both of which challenged the established Davos narrative and gained significant traction.

BOEING'S REGULATORY CAPTURE AND SAFETY CONCERNS

The discussion pivoted to Boeing's recurring safety issues, exemplified by the door plug incident on a 737 MAX. This is attributed to regulatory capture, where the company allegedly influences safety regulations through lobbying, and a lack of competition due to the duopoly with Airbus. This situation allows for price gouging on parts and compromises safety, as demonstrated by past fatal accidents attributed to the MAX's MCAS system.

ADAM NEUMANN'S TROUBLED RETURN WITH FLOW

Adam Neumann, formerly of WeWork, is facing challenges with his new real estate venture, Flow. The company acquired numerous apartment buildings at market peaks, financed with high-interest, floating-rate debt. As interest rates have risen, Neumann is struggling to make payments, a situation exacerbated by buying at the top and over-reliance on debt, echoing past financial missteps.

THE DISTINCTION BETWEEN TECH-ENABLED AND TRUE TECH BUSINESSES

The podcast explored the difference between tech-enabled businesses and genuine tech companies. Tech-enabled businesses leverage technology but are fundamentally rooted in traditional industries like real estate or restaurants, which have lower gross margins. True tech businesses, particularly software and marketplaces with network effects, often exhibit much higher gross margins and scalability, making the distinction crucial for investment analysis.

THE FUNDAMENTAL FLAW IN THE STREAMING BUSINESS MODEL

The streaming industry is at a crossroads, grappling with a broken business model characterized by high churn rates, 'subscription overload,' and excessive content spending. Despite attracting millions of viewers, services like Peacock are losing money, forcing price increases and cost-cutting measures. This dynamic suggests a coming period of consolidation and a potential shift towards ad-supported tiers.

MICROPLASTICS IN BEVERAGES AND POTENTIAL HEALTH RISKS

A recent study revealed significant microplastic contamination in bottled beverages, with up to 240,000 particles per liter. While PET plastic itself shows little toxicity, the tiny particles could potentially enter cells and disrupt their functions. This finding opens new avenues for research into the long-term health implications, prompting conversations about reducing plastic bottle consumption.

THE ECONOMICS OF PLASTICS AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONSIDERATIONS

The role of plastics, particularly in packaging and beverages, was debated. While acknowledging the environmental concerns and the emergence of microplastics, the hosts stressed that plastics became dominant due to their low cost and efficiency in transportation and storage. Alternatives like glass are significantly more expensive, posing a barrier for widespread adoption, especially in developing economies.

INNOVATIONS IN BIODEGRADABLE PLASTICS AND SUSTAINABLE PACKAGING

On an optimistic note regarding plastics, there is ongoing research into developing microbes that can biodegrade PET plastics. These efforts involve engineering bacteria to produce enzymes that break down plastic material. Several large companies are investing in this area, aiming for naturally biodegrading plastics derived from biosources, which could offer a more sustainable future for packaging.

THE CHALLENGES OF B2C SUBSCRIPTION MODELS VERSUS B2B SAS

The discussion highlighted the inherent difficulties in direct-to-consumer (B2C) subscription businesses, which often suffer from high monthly churn rates (5-10%). In contrast, business-to-business (B2B) Software-as-a-Service (SaaS) models typically exhibit net expansion, building long-term subscriber value. This disparity explains why B2B SaaS is generally considered a more robust and profitable business model.

THE EVOLVING WORLD OF GAMING AND POKER

The podcast concluded with a lighthearted segment on poker, discussing the proliferation of tournaments and the concept of live poker versus online play. They touched upon the experience of playing in tournaments, the dynamics of various poker games like Big O, and the potential for creating their own All-In podcast poker events. The conversation also briefly touched upon the idea of incorporating gaming into subscription services.

Streaming Service Monthly Churn Rates

Data extracted from this episode

Streaming ServiceMonthly Churn Rate (%)Approx. Annual Churn (%)
Stars12144
PeacockN/A100
DiscoveryN/A75
Max (HBO Max)N/A50+
Apple TV+N/A50+
HuluN/A60
Disney PlusN/A60
Netflix440

Economic Performance Comparison: Free Market vs. Government Intervention

Data extracted from this episode

Category (US Market)Price Change Over 20 YearsGovernment Role
EducationUpSignificant
HealthcareUpSignificant
Other government-involved goods/servicesUpSignificant
MedicineUpSignificant
CollegeUpSignificant
TutoringUpSignificant
Air ConditioningDownMinimal/Free Market
RefrigeratorsDownMinimal/Free Market
TelevisionsDownMinimal/Free Market
SmartphonesDownMinimal/Free Market

Common Questions

The WEF is facing criticism because it's perceived as an elite cabal in the Swiss Alps, flying in private jets and dining expensively while advocating for populist notions like stopping carbon production and higher taxation. This hypocrisy, combined with unusual performances like air flute playing and shamanism, has led to public mockery and shame among some attendees. Javier Milei's and Jamie Dimon's speeches, which contradicted the established consensus, went viral because they voiced sensible criticisms against the forum's prevailing ideology.

Topics

Mentioned in this video

People
Javier Milei

The President of Argentina and a former economics teacher, whose speech at Davos denouncing collectivism and promoting free markets went viral for contradicting the forum's established consensus.

Jamie Dimon

CEO of JPMorgan Chase, who gave an interview on CNBC agreeing with some of Donald Trump's past policies and questioning the prevailing economic narrative, which also went viral from Davos.

Andrew Ross Sorkin

A financial journalist for CNBC who posted on Twitter about the perceived embarrassment of attending Davos.

Klaus Schwab

The founder and executive chairman of the World Economic Forum, who introduced Javier Milei before his critical speech.

Adam Neumann

Founder of WeWork and now Flo, whose new real estate startup is facing financial headwinds due to floating rate debt and top-of-market acquisitions.

Donald Trump

Former US President whose policies on NATO, immigration, and tax reform were discussed by Jamie Dimon as being largely correct.

Alex Karp

CEO of Palantir, who reportedly gave a thoughtful speech about anti-Semitism at Davos, which was countercultural to the established anti-Israel narrative.

Rick Thompson

The venture investor who seeded and started Manscaped, leading Jason to sign up for its subscription service.

Peter Thiel

Mentioned as an example of an investor who prioritizes returning money to LPs rather than optimizing for fees, having already achieved success.

Phil Hellmuth

A famous professional poker player mentioned as someone who could be recruited for an 'All-in' poker tournament.

Companies
Boeing

An aerospace manufacturer whose 737 Max aircraft have faced significant safety issues, including door plugs blowing off and catastrophic software failures, highlighting concerns about regulatory capture and lack of competition.

TransDigm Group

An aerospace parts manufacturer with extremely high profit margins (53% EBITDA) that has been audited for earning excess profits on sole-source contracts with the U.S. government due to regulatory barriers to entry.

Flo

Adam Neumann's new startup, a residential real estate company aiming to create community-focused apartments with a potential rent-to-own equity model, but facing financial difficulties due to interest rate hikes and over-leveraged acquisitions.

United Airlines

Used as an example of a traditional business with a well-developed app, illustrating that not every business with a good app is a 'tech company'.

WeWork

Adam Neumann's previous company, which failed due to poor financial decisions and leasing offices at peak market prices, despite having a good product.

Green Desk

Adam Neumann's precursor to WeWork, which succeeded by finding cheap, undesirable buildings and transforming them into hip, affordable co-working spaces.

DoorDash

A marketplace business referenced in contrast to tech-enabled restaurants, highlighting the asset-light nature of true marketplaces.

Google

Along with Facebook, identified as a winner in the streaming wars due to increased advertising spending by streaming services to combat churn.

Manscaped

A men's grooming product company that Jason subscribed to to support a friend, but has found it impossible to cancel, leading to unwanted product deliveries.

McDonald's

Used as an example of a traditional restaurant business that has successfully integrated technology (app ordering, big screens) but remains a restaurant, not a 'tech-enabled business' in the high-margin software sense.

NBCUniversal

Paid $100 million for exclusive streaming rights to one NFL playoff game on its Peacock service, generating high viewership but raising questions about the sustainability of such spending.

Netflix

A leading streaming service with 247 million subscribers and growing revenue, but also high content spending and subscriber churn, though its 'recapture engine' is noted as effective.

Apple TV

A streaming service mentioned as an entrant that did not initially focus on profitability, primarily used to support other Apple hardware or services. It is bundled as part of the Apple One program.

Twilio

A communication platform as a service (CPaaS) company, whose metered telephony services are cited as an example of a virtual cost of goods sold for software businesses.

Uber

Used as an example of a 'super app' that can expand into adjacencies like alcohol and grocery delivery with minimal additional cost due to existing demand-side network effects.

Facebook

Along with Google, identified as a winner in the streaming wars as services overspend on content and then use these platforms for advertising to reacquire churned subscribers.

Duolingo

A language learning app that Jason was unknowingly paying for multiple subscriptions to, highlighting subscription overload.

Amazon

Its purchase of the portable vacuum cleaner Roomba is being investigated by the FTC, contrasting with the lack of attention to broader industry monopolies.

HyroGen

An AI company that immediately translated Javier Milei's speech from Spanish into English using his own words and published it, highlighting AI's potential for content accessibility.

Airbnb

Cited as an example of a marketplace that can add new inventory in new cities effectively, demonstrating network effects.

Airbus

One of the two major OEM equipment vendors in the US airline industry, forming a duopoly with Boeing.

Organizations
HBO Max

A streaming service, with content like The Sopranos and House of the Dragon, considered by some to have the best content, encouraging subscription retention.

Spain

A country that has implemented regulations banning plastic packaging for fruits and vegetables.

DoJ

A US government agency that could address anti-competition issues but is seemingly focused on less critical matters.

New York Times

Successfully implemented a bundling strategy with news, Wordle, crosswords, The Athletic, and Wirecutter, demonstrating effective subscription retention.

World Economic Forum

An international non-governmental and lobbying organisation based in Cologny, Geneva Canton, Switzerland. It brings together business, political, academic, and other leaders to shape global agendas. The event is now being mocked for its elitism and hypocrisy.

The Athletic

A sports journalism platform included in The New York Times' subscription bundle.

Biden campaign

Mentioned in the context of pushing an 'everything is hunky dory' narrative about the economy that Jamie Dimon questioned.

DOE

Mentioned as an example of a government agency that has a loan program to create diverse energy infrastructure, suggesting a similar model could be applied to other sectors to foster competition.

Wirecutter

A product review website integrated into The New York Times' subscription bundle.

FAA

A US government agency that took quick action to ground Boeing 737 Max 9 planes but is criticized for not understanding the broader systemic problem of lack of competition.

NFL

Its playoff games were exclusively streamed on Peacock, drawing millions of viewers but at a high cost for streaming rights.

FTC

A US government agency mentioned for investigating Amazon's purchase of Roomba, while larger systemic issues like concentration in the airline industry go unaddressed.

Andreessen Horowitz

A venture capital firm that invested $300 million in Flo at a billion-dollar valuation, despite the signs of a market downturn, seen as a move to deploy capital for fee generation rather than optimal returns.

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