Key Moments
E160: 2024 Predictions! Markets, tech, politics, and more
All-In PodcastKey Moments
All-In Podcast hosts make 2024 predictions on politics, business, assets, trends, media, and more.
Key Insights
Vladimir Putin is predicted to be the biggest political winner in 2024.
A third-party or independent candidate could emerge as a significant political winner in the US.
Commodities, bootstrapped startups, and training data owners are seen as potential business winners.
The German economy, vertical SaaS companies, and professional sports valuations are predicted to be business losers.
Energy stocks and consumer comfort services are identified as potentially best-performing assets.
AI advancements and outsourcing are anticipated to drive efficiency, while LLM startups and Magnificent 7 stocks may underperform.
POLITICAL WINNERS AND LOSERS
The "All-In" podcast hosts kick off their 2024 predictions with a focus on politics. Chamath Palihapitiya, David Sacks, David Friedberg, and Jason Calacanis debated who would emerge victorious and who would falter. Sacks controversially predicts Vladimir Putin as the biggest political winner, citing his consolidation of power and influence in the global South. Friedberg and Palihapitiya suggest a significant rise for independent or third-party candidates in the US, possibly challenging the two-party system, with RFK Jr. mentioned as a potential contender. Conversely, the collective West, including Ukraine and Israel, are identified as potential political losers due to ongoing conflicts and geopolitical shifts. Netanyahu is also singled out as a potential individual loser amid political challenges.
BUSINESS LANDSCAPE: WINNERS AND LOSERS
Transitioning to the business world, the panel offered diverse predictions. David Friedberg anticipates a boom in commodities businesses due to underinvestment and increasing demand. Chamath Palihapitiya champions bootstrapped, profitable startups, highlighting the potential for AI to disrupt older models cheaply. David Sacks points to Anduril's drone interception technology as a key business winner, addressing the unsustainable cost of current drone defense. On the losing side, Friedberg predicts significant challenges for vertical SaaS companies as enterprises leverage AI for custom solutions. Sacks foresees struggles for the German economy, burdened by energy costs and competition from Chinese auto manufacturers. Chamath suggests that valuations in professional sports may have peaked, with a downturn expected in 2024.
ECONOMIC OUTLOOK AND ASSET PERFORMANCE
The discussion delves into economic trends and the best and worst-performing assets. While last year's predictions included mixed results, for 2024, Friedberg favors the Uranium ETF (URA) due to global shifts towards nuclear power. Palihapitiya proposes a spread trade, going long public tech stocks while shorting late-stage private tech companies due to valuation discrepancies. Sacks tentatively suggests energy stocks could perform well, citing geopolitical risks and potential conflicts disrupting oil supply. He also expresses a strong conviction that the "Magnificent 7" tech stocks might underperform the broader S&P 493, suggesting a normalization after their rapid rise. Palihapitiya also predicts LLM startups will be the worst-performing asset class due to overvaluation and competition from open-source alternatives.
TECHNOLOGICAL TRENDS AND MEDIA LANDSCAPE
Anticipated trends for 2024 lean heavily into technology and its societal impact. Friedberg's most anticipated trend involves AI-driven discovery in biopharma and chemical engineering, promising new molecules, materials, and cost reductions. Palihapitiya believes Bitcoin will cross the chasm into mainstream adoption, potentially becoming a household financial term with ETF approvals. Sacks and Palihapitiya foresee continued exponential advancements in AI, even if specific breakthroughs remain unclear, emphasizing efficiency gains through AI and outsourcing. In media, the hosts expressed excitement for "Gladiator 2," "House of the Dragon" Season 2, and potential TV series based on Jimmy Soni's "The Founders" about PayPal. Friedberg predicts generative AI creating personalized news broadcasters, while Palihapitiya highlights MrBeast's continued dominance on YouTube.
DEEPER TRENDS: AI, ECONOMICS, AND GEOPOLITICS
Beneath the surface, the conversation touches on more profound shifts. Chamath's contrarian belief focuses on a potential decrease in OpenAI's enterprise value due to the high cost and latency issues of current AI models, envisioning a rise in open-source alternatives. Friedberg raises a concerning contrarian possibility of a tactical nuclear weapon being used, albeit with a low probability, citing declining military supplies and intense global conflicts. Sacks revisits last year's prediction, noting a subtle rift forming between the Biden administration and Zelenskyy regarding ceasefire negotiations. The overall sentiment for 2024 is a mix of excitement for innovation and cautiousness regarding economic turbulence, geopolitical instability, and the potential for unforeseen crises.
THE FUTURE OF SOFTWARE AND BUSINESS MODELS
The discussion on business losers also highlights a significant shift in software business models. Friedberg argues that vertical SaaS companies are at risk because AI and low-code tools enable enterprises to build their own custom solutions more cheaply, disrupting high per-seat pricing models. This leads to a broader conversation about the sustainability of current SaaS margins, with comparisons to traditional tech and other industries. The panel suggests that the era of consistently high gross margins (80-90%) for software companies might be temporary, driven by an arbitrage on engineering scarcity. As AI democratizes development, pricing compression and a potential return to more traditional, on-premise-like models are anticipated, impacting current valuations and business strategies.
Mentioned in This Episode
●Supplements
●Products
●Software & Apps
●Companies
●Organizations
●Concepts
●People Referenced
Common Questions
David Sacks predicted Vladimir Putin would be the biggest political winner in 2024, citing his economic stabilization and military gains in Ukraine. Chamath and Sacks also predicted a dark horse candidate could emerge to defeat both Trump and Biden.
Topics
Mentioned in this video
Co-host of the All-In podcast, whose personal prepper habits and purchase of radiation suits for his dogs are discussed.
Co-host of the All-In podcast, participating in the 2024 predictions discussion.
Was not signed by Saudi Arabia in their push to boost professional soccer.
Made unforced errors in 2023 by getting rid of capitalism in China, leading to a falling stock market and real estate.
Predicted by David Sacks to be the biggest political winner in 2024 due to his stabilizing of the Russian economy and gains in Ukraine.
A Russia hawk who pointed out that the global South is using the Ukraine war as a proxy to rebel against the West.
Mentioned as doing 'okay' in the political landscape, potentially impacting trades.
Israeli Prime Minister predicted by Chamath to be the biggest political loser in 2024.
Shout out to Palmer Luckey who is an investor in Anduril.
Published a piece advocating for war with Iran, contributing to potential oil price spikes.
Co-host of the All-In podcast, participating in the 2024 predictions discussion.
The newly elected leader of Argentina, who is described as very pro-American and pro-West, leading Argentina away from BRICS.
Running on an independent ticket in the US, seen as a potential major winner challenging the two-party system.
Signed by Saudi Arabia as part of its effort to boost its professional soccer business.
Chamath and Sacks's anticipated media for 2023, with Sacks finding it 'good not great' and 'very long'.
Freeberg's 'favorite DJ' dropping a new album with a track called 'Uranus'.
Author of 'The Founders', a book about PayPal, which Sacks has optioned for a TV series.
Purchased by David Friedberg due to fears of nuclear proliferation.
Its destruction is mentioned as a factor hurting the German economy.
David Friedberg's prediction for the best performing asset in 2024, citing ESG and conflict-driven demand for nuclear power.
Chamath's 2024 prediction was Starlink going public via a SpaceX spin-out.
Expensive smartphone model mentioned in the context of slowing smartphone sales.
Countries opposing American dominance, where Putin is gaining influence.
Target of Israel's invasion of Gaza.
Forced into merger talks with the LIV Tour.
Chamath's 2023 wildcard prediction was the CCP divesting of TikTok.
Criticized by Jason for its inaccuracy and bias, suggesting AI could provide objective news.
Adversaries using cheap drones in the Red Sea, necessitating expensive air defense missiles for interception.
The explosion of NIL (Name, Image, Likeness) deals within the NCAA is seen as a factor in potentially peaking sports values.
Mentioned as another news outlet lacking fact-checking, contrasting with the potential for AI to present objective news.
Could be involved in a war with Ethiopia, potentially disrupting oil supplies.
Issued an arrest warrant for Putin, mentioned in the context of sanctions against Russia.
Mentioned as a key training data owner and potential licensor for generative AI models.
David Friedberg's 2023 business prediction, which turned out to be a huge winner with massive revenue and market cap gains.
Mentioned as a training data owner for generative AI models.
Used as a historical comparison for potential disruptive technologies and copyright issues.
One of the companies whose premium on sports rights might decrease.
Mentioned as a potential healthcare acquisition target for Amazon.
Chamath predicts it will go public in 2024 and face pressure to remove the CCP from its board.
An early 2000s company that had a deal with Disney for custom merchandise, used as an analogy for future AI licensing deals.
Drake's production company partnering with David Sacks on 'The Founders' TV series.
David Friedberg's new startup where he is CEO, expressing excitement about his new role.
Mentioned as a small luxury consumers might turn to during austerity.
Mentioned as a training data owner for generative AI models.
Mentioned as a potential player in AI and generative AI gains.
Predicted by David Friedberg to be shorted, as enterprises can build homegrown solutions more cheaply using AI tools.
Parent company of TikTok, predicted to go public or have TikTok spin out.
Mentioned as a potential licensor of its library for generative AI content.
Chamath's 2023 business prediction for a 3D printing rocket company.
David Sacks predicts its Roadrunner drone interceptor product will make it a big business winner in 2024 due to the cost inefficiency of current drone defense.
Predicted by Chamath to be the worst performing assets in 2024 due to overvaluation and competition from open source.
Exploded in recent years, posing a competitive threat to Germany's car industry.
One of the streamers facing potential churn and whose premium on sports rights might decrease.
Mentioned as a potential healthcare acquisition target for Amazon.
Parent company of Starlink, which was predicted to go public.
Mentioned as a small luxury consumers might turn to during austerity.
Other stocks in the S&P 500 predicted to catch up to the Magnificent 7.
David Friedberg continues his prediction of this trade, particularly between Saudi Arabia and China.
Freeberg's prediction for media, involving personalized newscasters and real-time generative video.
A therapy for this condition came to market in 2023.
A concern that led David Friedberg to purchase radiation suits for his family and dogs.
Predicted by Chamath to be the biggest business winners in 2024 due to decreasing costs of compute, energy, and AI replication.
Stocks predicted to underperform relative to the rest of the S&P 493 due to hype-driven gains.
Chamath's contrarian belief for 2023, which he felt was proven correct due to America's performance vs. China and Russia.
Chamath believes 2024 is the most important year for Bitcoin due to upcoming ETF approvals and potential mainstream adoption.
Progressed with more approvals in 2023, including a sickle cell product, indicating a tidal wave of therapies coming.
Predicted by David Friedberg to experience a boom in 2024 due to underinvestment and returning cash from treasuries.
David Sacks's guess for the best performing asset in 2024 due to potential conflict escalation impacting oil prices.
In biofarma and chemical engineering, expected to yield new molecules, materials, and reduced production costs.
Chamath's anticipated media for 2023, which was delayed.
Netflix series based on books, done by Game of Thrones creators, anticipated for March release.
Mentioned as a comparison to a dystopian future where 'pasty preppers' inherit the Earth.
Anticipated media for 2024, with Sacks also looking forward to it.
HBO series produced by Dream Crew, mentioned in the context of Drake's production company's success.
Attempting to annex Guyana's offshore oil reserves, creating potential conflict and oil price spikes.
Has tense relationships with neighbors and could be involved in a war that disrupts the region.
Mentioned by John Bolton as a target for war, contributing to potential oil price spikes.
Decided not to join BRICS, seen as a one-off event by David Sacks.
Predicted by Sacks to be a political loser due to its financial deficit.
Used its balance sheet to attempt to jump-start its professional soccer business by signing players like Ronaldo.
Mentioned as a potential travel destination for consumers seeking small luxuries.
Predicted by Freeberg to be a major political loser in 2024 as global attention shifts to the Middle East.
RFK Jr. was added to the ballot in this state.
Its invasion of Gaza is predicted by Sacks to be not going well, leading to international condemnation.
Mentioned in the context of the Houthis using drones, highlighting the need for effective drone interception systems like Anduril's Roadrunner.
Its economy is predicted to be a major business loser due to loss of cheap Russian gas and competition from Chinese cars.
Its offshore oil reserves are being targeted by Venezuela, creating potential conflict.
Could be involved in a war with Ethiopia, potentially disrupting oil supplies.
Mentioned by Sacks as a location with declining office hours contributing to worst performing assets.
A model used by Freeberg to generate images of highly beautiful people, illustrating potential for AI in media.
A language model whose training data and potential licensing deals with content owners are discussed.
Possible reboot or improvement mentioned in the context of Apple's AI advancements.
A modification of Stable Diffusion that generates aesthetically perfect people.
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